Thanks to Clinton, the World Is a More Dangerous Place

by Michael Kelly, the Washington Post Writers Group

Salt Lake Tribune, Opinion, 11/19/98

WASHINGTON -- Over at the White House, the search continues for a Legacy (it must be here somewhere; has anyone looked in the book room?). Here's one: Bill Clinton mad the world a more dangerous place.

We are, and have been since the late 1980s, in the time that precedes the time of serious war, a building period of sorts. Around the world, hungry little states are building up their arsenals toward the day when they may reach out and gobble up a neighbor or two. THere is nothing that the United States can do to entirely stop this; a world unfrozen by the Cold War's thaw is bound to be a rapacious place.

But the United States can work to limit the scope of coming horrors, principally by limiting the expansion of weapons of mass destruction. Under the direction of a president who, we now know, lacks an adult appreciation of the idea of consequences, the United States has done precisely the opposite.

Clinton has had some foreign-policy successes -- chief among them the Irish peace -- and these successes arise from his talent for avoiding conflict: for eluding the hard choices, for mediating toward compromise. Fine as far as it goes. But where a conflict between America's interests and those of another nation cannot be avoided, Clinton has a habit of accepting the unacceptable -- anything, really, will do -- simply to make the threat appear to go away. But this, of course, merely gives the threat space to grow.

In 1994, it became clear that the world's last Stalinist state, North Korea, was stockpiling weapons-quality plutonium. The Clinton administration worked out a deal. The agreement of Oct. 21, 1994, called for North Korea to stop its nuclear program and to dismantle its plutonium processing plant near Yongbyon. In exchange, South Korea, Japan and the European Union would give North Korea $4.6 billion worth of nuclear reactors and fuel oil, with the U.S. helping out in loan assistance.

What has happened since? Well, NOrth Koread has refused all requests by the International Atomic Energy Agency to allow its inspectors in to determine whether North Korea was keeping its promise. And, on Aug. 31, 1998, North Korea launched its first multistage, long-range missile -- and made a point of directing the missile to fly over Japan. [Ed. note: some observers now say the launch might actually have been a failed satellite launch, as North Korea eventually claimed.] And, shortly thereafter came news that American spy satellites had photographed thousands of workers toiling to build a new underground facility at Yongbyon. North Korea has refused American requests to examine the suspected new nuclear arms plant.

This week, a U.S. delegation is in Pyongyang pushing for access, and administration officials are talking tough about renouncingthe 1994 agreement if North Korea doesn't fold. But that won't fix the harm done by allowing North Korea's nuclear program to continue over the past four years, nor will it stop North Korea from pushing forward with the program.

In May, the new nationalist government in India exploded two nuclear bombs in undergroundtests. Its threatened neighbor, Pakistan, responded with bomb tests of its own. Declaring itself determined to halt the new nuclear race and to discourage other states from following India's and Pakistan's lead, the Clinton administration -- compelled by U.S. law -- hit both countries with an array of economic sanctions. That would learn 'em.

They had already learned -- from Iraq, from North Korea, from China. They had learned to tell the American president what he wanted to hear. So, this September, India and Pakistan announced a joint moratorium on further nuclear tests. Of course, India and Pakistan do not need to do anymore testing (they know now that they know how to build bombs). And, of course, India and Pakistan did not promise to never depoly nuclear weapons nor to halt production of additional fissile material. In other words, India and Pakistan are going right ahead with their bomb programs.

But that's OK. on Nov. 6, Clinton notified both countries that, because of their good behavior, he was exercising new authority granted by Congress, and was waiving almost all of the sanctions. Would-be nuclear nations, beware: If you take that fateful step, the mighty U.S. will smite you with the terrible swift sword of economic punishment -- for a whole six months.

Clinton's responses to the great tests of foreign-policy crises are a matter of personality, not strategy. Clinton lies, as all liars do, out of a failure of courage. He does not want to face hard truths; he does not want to pay a price; he does not want to feel his own pain. So, he will swallow a fiction -- yet another promise from Saddam Hussein, or from North Korea, or from China, or from India, or from whomever -- rather than deal with unpleasant reality. Here is why character matters: Liars don't mind being lied to.