Despite these advantages, Hokkaido faces many challenges. Some [e.g., the decreasing number of farm households (85,000 in 1994 as against 135,000 in 1975) and agrarian population (189,000 in 1994 as against 303,000 in 1975), an aging society (35.4% over 60 years old), a deficiency of farm successors, and the declining employment opportunities in agriculture] are similar to those in other parts of Japan while others (the geographic isolation, a relatively short growing season, and an outflow of youth from Hokkaido due to urbanization) are unique to Hokkaido. Further the recent changes in agricultural reform including a dwindling support for farm produce, the conclusion of agreements (e.g., World Trade Organization) for further liberalization of international trade in agricultural produce and growing public concerns for the global environment and food safety, are putting additional pressure to make its agriculture more competitive. Agriculture in Hokkaido cannot be separated from the food-processing industries, which shipped nearly ¥2.4 trillion worth of products. Balancing economic profitability and environmental integrity on farms and in agro-industries is, therefore, very important.

In this article, I shall briefly consider the concept of agricultural sustainability, the impact of agriculture on the global environment, the influence of technological change on agriculture, and then discuss how Hokkaido can make further efforts toward this goal. However, I shall restrict my discussion to crop production, as the other authors deal with sectors such as animal husbandry, forestry and fisheries.

The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) defined agricultural sustainability as "successful management of resources for agriculture to satisfy changing human needs while maintaining or enhancing the quality of the environment and conserving natural resources" (TAC, 1989). This definition is, however, inherently vague, subjective and qualitative. On the other hand, more quantifiable measures for agricultural sustainability may include: optimization of productivity, soil and water conservation, soil quality restoration, improvements in water quality in relation to suspended and dissolved loads, improvements in air quality in relation to gaseous emissions from agricultural activities, optimization of the use of off-farm inputs, improvements in energy flux and energy use efficiency of the farming system, low human drudgery, high standard of living and respectability of the agricultural profession (Lal, 1994). Efforts are necessary to better each of these aspects in Hokkaido. Improved farm practices must not only be highly productive and profitable but also ecologically compatible and socially acceptable. We must realize, however, that achievement of sustainable agriculture is dependent on acceptance of the critical importance of the "whole" system. Agricultural activities cannot be viewed in isolation from other land use options (e.g., conservation, tourism, forestry), which relate to watershed and landscape management, which, in turn, impact on social services and issues relating to employment and education.

As a user of land and most other natural resources, agriculture is a major custodian of the environment. Agriculture contributes both positively and negatively to the environment. However, environmental problems such as global warming, desertification, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity occupy headlines in newspapers, and agriculture is being held responsible for resource degradation and poor environmental quality. Sometimes, the media tend to portray farmers as being concerned only with production and profits, while environmentalists are depicted as demanding environmental quality at any cost. In fact, we must realize that most farmers care profoundly about the land, and most environmentalists want a flourishing agricultural economy. What is needed, therefore, is a process to consider simultaneously both how to solve environmental problems, and how to do it at the least cost. Adopting suitable land use and farming systems is, therefore, important. An appropriate agricultural land use may be arable, pastoral, silvicultural or any combination of these depending on local conditions. Likewise, farming systems can be: simple or complex, resource- or science-based, low- or high-input, subsistence or commercial. In any case, the choice of land use systems determines whether the land gets degraded or restored, and if the system become sustainable or unsustainable.

While the estimates of agricultural impact on global warming can never be precise, we cannot discount the fact that the concentration of CO₂ is on the rise: from 330 ppm in 1970 to 340 ppm in 1980 and to 352 ppm in 1990. Based on current projections, global warming may indeed be useful to Hokkaido, as it is likely to extend the length of the growing season. However, considering our global responsibility to the conservation of the environment, efforts must be placed on reducing application of agricultural chemicals that deplete ozone and increase the rate of global warming (e.g., methyl bromide). Recent research from other regions of Japan indicates that runoff of eroded soil, animal wastes, fertilizers or pesticides are often the cause of serious pollution of both surface and ground water. Efforts must be taken, therefore, to reduce inputs in farming that, in turn, would reduce total costs.

Japan is the biggest importer of agricultural products in the world. Further, the average Japanese consumer contributes far more than the optimum value of 1.7 tons of CO₂ emissions (because of low energy productivity of food supply, which in turn is due to long distance transport of goods from producer to consumer, and an excessive use of inputs). In light of these facts, criticism from both domestic and foreign circles regarding the role that Japan must shoulder in protecting the global environment seems reasonable. Japan imports about 32 million tons of grain annually and its self-sufficiency supply in grain has dropped below 30%. Nearly 20% of the world's total maritime goods including one-third of the world trade in shrimp (Japan's largest food import), timber, iron ore and coal, and 15-20% of petroleum end up in Japan. Likewise, Japan's imports exceeded exports by 25:1 for vegetables and by 37:1 for fruit. Hokkaido can, therefore, take a lead in helping (a) the rest of Japan in improving food self-sufficiency as much as possible and (b) the international community in the development and promotion of environmentally conscious agriculture.

The rapid ongoing technological changes have significant consequences on agricultural sustainability. The overall benefits vary, however, with the type of technology used. Mechanical technology is mostly labor-saving as it encourages the substitution of power and machinery for labor. On the other hand, biological and chemical technologies are more land-saving and output-increasing. Biological technology also facilitates the substitution of chemical fertilizers, new seeds, insecticides, and new husbandry practices for land.

While the mechanical, biological and chemical technologies continue to be essential, the emerging technologies (biotechnology and information technology) are gaining further importance in determining the success of the farming industry. The main fields of application of biotechnology are seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and animal health. Biotechnology is likely to reduce the demand for land and reduce risks and uncertainties arising from weather, disease and pests. It is also likely to interact with mechanical and chemical technologies to make integrated pest management and conservation tillage practices more effective and profitable. If biotechnology can reduce dependence on pesticides and fertilizers, then it is perhaps more compatible than current technologies with environmentally sound agriculture. As biotechnology tends to benefit large farms, Hokkaido has a comparative advantage.

Information has always been an important resource to farm managers but its relative importance has increased recently. Whereas the physical resources of land, labor and capital combined with a bit of knowledge and information were the key determinants of financial success in the past, the role of knowledge and information will become more important in future for successful farm management. Big farms are potentially better equipped to use information technology profitably, as they are able to hire specialized skills required, and are able to distribute the costs and benefits over many units of output. Thus, Hokkaido is again in a better position to exploit the advantages of information technology than the rest of Japan. Spatial information technologies (SITs) are core components of information systems for crop management and monitoring. SITs comprise many technologies including geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems (GPS), remote sensing, and digital image processing systems. Telecommunication technologies such as Internet and small-dish satellites that provide access to spatial data and information resources can also be included. Telecommunication technologies including computer-based trading systems or databases have the potential to increase greatly the amount of information disseminated across markets by improving communication among producers, processors and retailers. They also allow farmers to explore other market opportunities, and lower transaction costs. Thus these technologies have a greater impact in support industries rather than at the farm level.

Precision farming technology, on the other hand, represents a new way of managing farm resources and production information. By adopting this technology, farmers may benefit due to increased crop yields, reduced production costs and/or income variability. A precision farming system generates data and information that have value beyond their immediate application on the farm. It helps in locating areas where producers must avoid applying chemicals and/or other production inputs to protect wildlife. Precision farming will also be able to help diversified producers plan complex crop rotations based on nutrient cycling, pest cycles and biological controls. Initially, company-sponsored farms and agricultural associations can adopt such technologies in Hokkaido.

From a producer's perspective, precision farming GIS may include hardware on the farm, access to soils and other data maintained by public agencies, and advice and software from commercial vendors to use them. It could provide the ability to integrate and analyze disparate information including soils, drainage, cropping and harvesting records, land tenure, etc. for farm planning, field management, marketing and other purposes. If the operation is a large corporation contracting for production on thousands of acres across an extensive area, some form of GIS is necessary to manage the land, contract the farms, move equipment, etc. GPS units are helpful in measuring yield, soil properties, or other land information. Virtual maps of field characteristics can be created, which in turn can be used to modify inputs in subsequent seasons. Remote sensing can be useful in characterizing the biophysical and socioeconomic resources of the principal ecosystems, to develop probabilities of stress occurrence, and to develop appropriate systems for sustainable exploitation of the resources.

Whole farm planning is a comprehensive approach to farm decision-making. It brings the entire farm and all its resources into the thought process. The purpose is to help farmers achieve their goals while simultaneously preserving natural resources and the environment. It is based on the concept that a farmer can make better decisions if he or she has all relevant information about available resources, alternative solutions and potential impacts. It is opposite to single-purpose farm plans. Benefits include the opportunity to promote sustainable agriculture, to advance conservation and water quality protection, to blend economics with environmental concerns, or to include quality of life as a consideration in farming decisions. The essential contents of a whole farm plan include: farm family goals, economic viability of the farm, water quality, soil conservation, nutrient management, water management, pest management, soil quality, crop rotations, tillage, etc. When all these separate elements are integrated into the farmer goals, it would simplify understanding of how one practice affects another and how one resource affects another. The integration process is where farmers prioritize their problems and reassess possible solutions against their goals. They try to find the most cost-effective solutions to their needs.

Computer tools such as CROPS (Comprehensive Resource Planning Systems developed at Virginia Tech), Planetor (developed by the Center for Farm Financial Management at the University of Minnesota) can be used in whole farm planning. CROPS incorporates a map of the farm and descriptions of livestock, soil types, acreage, slope and proximity to waterways in each field, and displays potential risks of pollution and soil erosion. The farmer can enter priorities for environmental protection, production and profit goals, and target acreage for specific crops, etc. Planetor helps evaluate the potential for soil erosion, pesticide leaching and runoff, pesticide toxicity, nitrogen leaching and phosphorus runoff of various practices. It can be used to predict the economic impacts of changes in pesticide use, tillage, nutrient management or crop rotations.

The constraints to sustainability lie both on and off the farm. Improving productivity of input and output marketing, storage and processing are critical to driving down the real cost of food to consumers. Meeting these challenges require improved technologies and institutions not only at the farm level but throughout the marketing and processing sectors.

The "sixth industry" is the combination of the primary industry of agriculture, the secondary (manufacturing) industry of processing the materials, and the tertiary (service) industry of distributing the result. This sixth industry, "one plus two plus three equals six", is a new sector that produces food of higher value. Developing this sixth industry will not only create more jobs in agricultural communities but will also involve more efficient use of farmland. For instance, gross revenues per hectare of soybean and wheat are only 0.5 and 0.6 million yen respectively, but it would be several times more if measures are taken to locally process and produce quality products that meet consumer preferences. Nearly 80% of Japan's potatoes are produced in Hokkaido. Of this, 53% is used as raw material for starch, 20% for processed food, and 16% to markets. Because the consumption of potato-processed food products is increasing, Hokkaido has to promote better quality materials for processed food. For instance, the demand for potatoes may be increased by developing technologies for products such as edible pigment, a by-product of the starch industry (Mori and Unemura, 1992).

There is already a growing involvement of the private sector in agricultural R&D associated with the introduction of new food products and the creation of alternative food and non-food uses. The role of the private sector is especially important in newly emerging technologies, as these are capital-intensive. Private institutes such as Hokkaido Green Bio-Institute are conducting pioneer biotechnology research by developing several virus-resistant strains of potato. My organization, the Regional Science Institute (RSI), has recently taken several initiatives to popularize spatial information technologies in various sectors including agriculture. We are developing a Regional Agricultural and Environmental Information System for Hokkaido in collaboration with the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), USA. RSI and CIESIN are also planning to develop databases such as a 'Food Products Information' database to link US agricultural producers with Japanese consumers, and to develop a Japanese version of CIESIN's Crop Observation and Performance Service by incorporating major food crop varieties grown in Hokkaido.

People in urban regions increasingly prefer value-added products, and food businesses are becoming more service-oriented. As concern for the environment and an appreciation of nature grow, there are many opportunities to create markets for local specialties. In developing these markets, local initiatives such as concentrating more on the development of diverse, specialized, and high quality food products using local resources, and paying more attention to the changing preferences of urban consumers in selection and production of crops and their marketing are important. The best approach to this strategy is to identify local resources and estimate their economic value. The popularization of local diets among urban consumers is also important. For example, the cultivation of "Hasukappu" (a variant of Lonicera caerula) belonging to the berry family, increased markedly, as a local specialty promoted through the "one village one product" campaign.

As liberalization of trade in agricultural produce is likely to proceed much faster in future than in the past, plans for diversification are necessary. There are many alternate crops suitable for cultivation in Hokkaido, but the lack of information on potential markets discourages farmers to make any bold attempts. For instance, sunflower has never been thought as a crop for Hokkaido until recently. Recent trials by the Hokkaido National Agricultural Experiment Station indicate that it is a valuable crop not only in economic terms but also for soil conservation (Arihara, J. Personal communication). Wheat sown after sunflower yielded much higher than wheat following other crops. Similarly, the introduction of hops into northern Hokkaido can potentially revitalize the economy of that region. In addition, technologies must be developed to enhance quality of existing products, create entirely new products, or develop alternative uses for agricultural products. Certain new products may not be less costly to produce but they can capture high premium for perceived desirable environmental or health attributes (e.g., organic produce). For example, there is a clear demand for organic soybeans in Japan. Many US companies (e.g., JAT International Inc.) are growing organic clear hilum soybean (HP 204), and organic "natto" soybeans (cv. P&T) over a large area just to cater to the Japanese market. Hokkaido can certainly meet a part of this demand if concerted efforts are undertaken. In the case of rice too, where no progress has been achieved in improving yields during the past 15 years, the cultivation of new varieties with low amylose content and high amylopectin is useful to develop value-added products such as rice cakes. Further, as the demand for flowers is expected to increase in urban regions, it is important to encourage production of flowers such as baby's breath, carnation, etc. in rice production areas of central Hokkaido.

As mentioned earlier, the emerging technologies such as spatial information technologies have great relevance to making agricultural systems environmentally sound. Indeed, precision farming technology combines old ideas - such as increasing the efficiency of inputs and using soil tests to determine application rates of inputs - with advanced satellite and computer technology to significantly improve the information base on which production decisions are made. They also enable cost reductions and quality improvement to meet the demands of consumers and food processors. Because of large farm-size, Hokkaido has a comparative advantage in adopting these technologies. However, because individual farmers are not yet convinced regarding potential benefits of such technologies, farm associations such as "Nokyo" must take the initiative to spread these technologies in collaboration with the private sector. Projects such as the Agripolis plan in Obihiro, use of a dairy farming management information system in Tokachi, and tissue culture technologies for growing vegetables in the Okhotsk region must be encouraged.

Hokkaido is unique in Japan in having introduced the concepts of American and European agriculture long ago. The options for introducing sustainable practices in Hokkaido can be evaluated on the basis of experience of other countries. For instance, atrazine has been banned in Germany and the Netherlands because it was found to move from farms into ground and surface water. Nutrients are also aggressively managed in the Netherlands. Every farmer with livestock must account for their manure with a nutrient budget, documenting number of animals sold, feed purchased, chemical fertilizer purchased, how many acres of which crops they grow, and thus nutrients can only be applied at rates that sustain crops. All manure must be stored under cover, and must be incorporated into soil when it is applied. The Europeans are also targeting gaseous nitrate emissions from cattle feedlots, confinement barns, and liquid manure spreading as an important source of nutrient deposition in water pollution. It is important to determine if and to what extent such measures are relevant to Hokkaido. Local think tanks and research organizations must be encouraged to identify and/or develop production methods and alternative biophysical/socioeconomic resource management systems that meet the demands of multiple stakeholders and are more environmentally efficient.

Policies for environmentally-friendly farm management must be established. For example in Finland, a major environmental program is being implemented and is concerned mostly with the cultivation of field crops and with landscape preservation issues. In this program, farmers will be able to apply for compensation for carrying out environmental measures. Of late, there is an increasing emphasis on the "Polluter Pays Principle" all over the world. Despite widespread opposition all over Japan, it is necessary to determine if Hokkaido can lead other prefectures in devising similar policies in consultation with producers and consumers.

Some lands in Hokkaido are marginal by food production standards and some of these can be targeted for eventual purchase for nature restoration, allowing wetlands, floodplains and wet meadow ecosystems to be reestablished. Similarly, efforts must be taken to improve biodiversity in farmlands. In the pursuit for higher productivity, food sources were narrowed down in a short period to a limited number of species and varieties. According to a recent study, of the commercial crops registered with the USDA in 1903, 96% have become extinct. Nearly 86% of the more than 7000 varieties of apples and 88% of the 2683 kinds of pears which were consumed then, can no longer be eaten today. In Japan too, for example, out of 213 varieties of the non-glutinous low land rice, 10 varieties accounted for 66.6% of the total rice area and the top five varieties account for 50.6% of the area. Because agricultural lands are relatively big in Hokkaido, efforts must be made to preserve genetic diversity. Hokkaido can take a lead in adopting new technologies such as GAP analysis and GIS in an effort to conserve biodiversity.

Considerable progress has been achieved in Hokkaido in some of the above aspects. As a committed agriculturist, I see a leading role for Hokkaido in the movement toward better environmental management and sustainable agriculture. With its earnest efforts, Hokkaido will have much to offer to the rest of Japan and the world regarding agricultural sustainability and environmental conservation. Thus the challenge for the future is already set. The question is whether Hokkaido is willing to accept it gracefully.

Iwafune, O. 1995. Agriculture in Hokkaido 1995-96. Hokkaido Kyodokumiai Tsushinsha, Sapporo. 30 pp.

Lal, R. 1994. Guidelines and methods for assessing sustainable use of soil and water resources in the tropics. SMSS Technical Bulletin 21, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, 78pp.

Mori, M., and Unemura, Y. 1992. Current situation of potato processing in Japan. JARQ 26, 157-164.