The Path of Least Resistance By James Cormier-Chisholm

The author outlines a way to reduce worldwide greenhouse gas emissions  and save billions of dollars in the process ( published in the UK Petroleum Review in June of 2005).    Countries are wasting millions of tonnes of coal, natural gas, and oil every year.  This is due to   electrical lines being placed in areas where power lines are being exposed to conditions that promote   loss of electricity. Fortunately, an easy way is proposed here to increase power line efficiency. The solution will not   only lower fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, it will save hundreds of billions of   dollars and increase per capita income levels.   And the fix can be applied now.

The issue of power line losses came to my attention in June 2004, when I was doing research as to why   California was suffering from a series of blackouts.   In looking at power line distribution data from   the US, a surprising set of relationships were found which formed the basis of a new viewpoint on more   efficient power distribution.   These relationships were picked up by a nonlinear spline regression analysis.    Spline data mining is not new; the technique as a drafting technique began hundreds of years ago with boat   building.  As the computer age developed, mathematicians transferred this old but useful shipbuilding   technique into mathematical formulas and algorithms for use in computer systems.  By the 1990s, statisticians   developed spline regression analysis to model complex nonlinear data statistical data.

When applied to power loss data, the technique uncovered a previously unknown statistical relationship   between power loss and altitude above mean sea level.  In addition, it picked up a second relationship   between air moisture content and power line losses.  Simply put, power lines have less power line loss   in regions where there is less moisture, or regions that are at higher altitudes, (See Figures 1 and 2).

Figure 1. Power Line Losses Vs Altitude Above Mean Sea Level

Why does this correlation exist?  Power line losses occur through a process called heat of resistance;  electrons move through the wires, heat of resistance converts some of the electrical energy into  wasteful heat.  Resistance in the wires increases as air temperature increases; the hotter the air,  the more electrical energy is converted into heat.  As you go lower in altitude, air temperature  generally increases, as does power line losses.  Most of this loss occurs at altitudes below 400 feet  (122 meters) above mean sea level.  By simply shifting power lines above this mark, power line losses  can be reduced significantly.

Figure 2   % Surface Water to Dry Land Relates to Power Loss

Power line losses also occur through leakage; electricity leaks through line insulation into the air as  a field of force around power lines.  The amount of leakage rises as humidity rises.  As can be seen in  Figure 2, air moisture is positively correlated with wasted energy.  By moving power lines away from bodies  of water, power line losses can be reduced significantly. Did engineers miss these relationships for over 100 years?

Well, yes and no - ever since the first electrical grids were constructed, engineers understood heat of  resistance loss was a major waste in electrical energy transport.   But heat of resistance was primarily  understood as being linearly related to distance travelled.  So engineers optimized for distance between  cities, towns and electrical generation stations.  Engineers made straight lines on a map, and shaped  the electrical grid that way.

However, those original power line loss studies assumed an ideal temperature of resistance, ignoring  the fact that over large geographic distances, temperature and moisture content of air vary greatly.   Engineers essentially took a lab value for heat of resistance and air moisture content, and projected  these "ideal" values over the entire electrical grid system.  These "rule of thumb" lab values then  passed into textbooks and became ingrained engineering practice.  In reality higher regional  ambient air temperatures  and moisture air levels means power lines traveling through higher temperature  and moisture regions suffer higher heat of resistance and electrical power line loss than predicted in textbooks.    The Power of the Pocketbook

The power loss work led to an observation; in regions where power losses were highest, factories suffer  higher costs for electricity on average. This means less money to pay workers.   In contrast, people  working for factories in regions where power losses are less tend to have better pay.

A further spline regression analysis was carried out to try predicting per capita income levels using  the same input variables as used for power line losses, i.e. altitude of US States and the ratio of  water to dry land by US State.  The results correlated very closely, as seen by a comparison of predicted  per capita income levels by US State to actual levels of per capita income (Figure 3).   In other words,  climate predicts power line losses and power line losses predicts part of your pay check.  This is the  first example of a demonstrated relationship between per capita income and climate.

Figure 3.  Regression Spline Analysis using altitude and ratio of water to  land predicts average per capita income levels by US State accurately What if power lines were put up higher? The analysis predicts a group average increase of US $2,400 if all high-tension power lines are  raised above 400 (122 meters) feet in altitude.   The highest capital gain would be in New York State, increasing by US $3,227 in average per capita  income (highest income gain of all US States).   The least income gain, at US $1374, is Louisiana.   If we take all the income increases by US State across all States, and multiply these income figures  by the working population by US State, an overall national income increase for the US of $352  billion per annum is possible.[1]    In addition, if you shift power grids to reduce losses by altitude and moisture, the same amount of  electricity can be created using far fewer fossil fuels.  The US department of Energy predicts that  the country will create 5,985 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions while producing electricity  in 2005.  Shifting the power lines would reduce greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 13.8%,  or by 831.1 million metric tonnes, more than enough to meet Kyoto Protocol guidelines. Monetary savings would also be significant.  If power lines were raised on average above 400 feet,  the statistical formula predicts that reduced electrical wastage would produce a savings of US $98  Billion per annum.  So, what can be done? The easy answer is to simply shift as many electricity lines as possible so  that they are away from large bodies of water and above 400 feet in altitude.  However, in the developed world  a lot of money has been invested into the existing power grid and it would be expensive to  duplicate them.  Even though the advantages are obvious, it would also take several years to approve  rights of way for new transmission lines.  There is also the issue of political will.    Fortunately, the data points to 'low hanging fruit', where significant gains can be made quickly.   The selfsame spline regressive data mining formula could also be used to map where these low hanging  fruit are and also provide optimal new pathways could be laid for future power transmission lines.   As for the entire transmission grid, lines require periodic maintenance, and much value can be obtained  by simply raising their height.  Longer term solutions, such as shifting lines away from the coast into  hill country, promoting sectors of the economy (like Silicon Valley) that use a lot of electricity into  higher altitude areas and shifting population centres to higher altitudes can follow over generations.    The Third World, which has a less-developed grid, can benefit from programs that properly site new lines  so that they benefit from efficiencies right from the beginning.  Through applied knowledge, humanity can increase the efficiency of its electricity system, meet and  exceed Kyoto obligations and save billions of dollars.  All that is required is the will to act.  Biography Jim Cormier-Chisholm is owner of Data Forest Mining, Inc., a data mining consultant firm.   A native of  Cape Breton Island, Canada, Cormier-Chisholm holds a degree in Geology and an MBA with specialization  in financial statistical data mining from Saint Mary's University.  He has spent the past 13 years  working for Environment Canada as a consultant and as a geoscientist for the mining industry.   He can  be reached at: James_Chisholm@hotmail.com    [1] US Census Bureau, Working Population Figures by US State, Found at: http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en&_ts=