On the Wingtips of Discovery!!

Presented to the Florida Association of Science Teachers

2006 Conference at University of Florida, Gainesville, FL

For the Probability of Meeting Up Again “On The Wings of Discovery”

On Friday there are 7 Sessions with 13 or more Presentations from which 
to choose:
(13+15+14+15+14+14+15)/7 = 100/7 = 14.3  
as the average presentations per session
gives a Probability Density of  1/14.3 = (0.07) 
of meeting at any given Friday session.

The Probability Density of NOT meeting is 1 – (0.07) = (0.93).


On Saturday there are 5 Sessions with 10 or more Presentations from which 
to choose:
(13+13+14+12+10)/5 = 62/5 = 12.4  
as the average presentations per session
gives a Probability Density of  1/12.4 = (0.08) 
of meeting at any given Saturday session.

The Probability Density of NOT meeting is 1 – (0.08) = (0.92).


Combined for both days 
the Probability Density of  1/(14.3  + 12.4) = (0.037) of meeting 
at any two sessions gives a Probability Density of NOT meeting 
as 1 – (0.037) = (0.963).


The Probabilty of meeting at the first session either day is 1/13 = (0.077).



The Probablity of Meeting someone the first session on Friday 
and then NOT meeting them in any other session 
is  = (0.077)(0.93)^6  =  (0.0498).  

The Complement of this is the Probability of Meeting Up Again on Friday 
and is 1 – (0.0498) = 95.02%.

The Probablity of Meeting someone the first session on Saturday 
and then NOT meeting them in any other session 
is  = (0.077)(0.92)^4  =  (0.0552).  

The Complement of this is the Probability of Meeting Up Again on Saturday 
and is 1 – (0.0552) = 94.48%.


The Probablity of Meeting someone the first session on Friday 
and then NOT meeting them in any other session over two days 
is  = (0.077)(0.963)^11  =  (0.0509).  


Thus, the Overall Probability of Meeting Up Again 

is 1 – (0.0509) = 94.91% !

So, I'll probably be seeing you later!

Have fun!!