History of Middle East Relations
In light of foreign policy in the middle east and the United States' coalition building I see difficulty and problems which may arise and I'll be continually curious to see how such coalitions are forged and how long they last.
With all due respect to the Islamic faith and those of Arab nations, the state
of so called coalitions and allies in the middle east has historically been precarious
and volatile to say the least.
Depending on what point in history you are looking
at our allies and friends in the middle east tend to have a chameleon effect.
Our
most current enemy, the Taliban of Afghanistan was the rebel force we supported not
so many years ago in resisting Russia.
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In Iraq, Sadaam Hussein was a visionary
in the war with Iran where the United States provided military help in the fight
with Iran who of course was being aided by Russian military supplies yet when Iraq
won that war it decided it no longer desired western help but rather decided to corner
the worlds oil supply by military force thus the United States goes to war with Iraq.
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Meanwhile Iran looms in the balance; a longtime friend of the United States
years ago, the former Persia under monarchial rule fends off radicals in the 1950's
and then gets western help retaining the monarchy of the Shah and establishes very
friendly relations by the 1960's. By 1979 radical fundamentalist movements surge
in Iran led by the Ayatollah Khomeni; who was originally exiled in 1964, and this
time the Shah is forced into exile and Iran becomes our sworn enemy yet more moderate
factions have taken over in Iran as of 1997 and once again the United States seems
to have a dialogue with Iran.
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Egypt has been hot and cold in relations.
Anwar Sadat brokered peace throughout the middle east and radicals in Egypt assisinated
him. President Mobarek has kept good relations with the United States yet these have
been on and off as he faces continued threats from a growing militant faction in
his own country.
We can also look at the behavior of the oil producing export countries (OPEC)
as an example of coalition.
OPEC continuously makes agreements to cut back oil
supply in order to increase price and profit margin. Problem with this effort is
that of these countries there is always someone who wants their money right away,
they wish to buy things, guns or butter in the economic model and the choice is usually
guns but they want them quickly and the quick way to get money is to sell more oil
(notice the capitalistic behavior here) thus the cartel falls apart because once
one breaks the chain and floods the market then the others must do the same to remain
competitive.
I think our coalition and support is strong now. For the short term it will remain so, even in military presence however I would say that history suggests such coalitions will not remain in tact for long and our actions cannot be long term they must be more direct and isolated for the longer we remain in this loop and the further we try to spin the web we may find ourselves and our coalition overextened.