ZCZC MIATCDAT3 TTAA00 KNHC 260320 COR HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN OCT 25 1998 ...CORRECTED NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS IN LAST PARAGRAPH... MITCH CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT ALL OF THE CLASSICAL FEATURES OF A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. A WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. A SYMMETRICAL AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IN EVIDENCE. THE 130-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PENETRATIONS SINCE 1903Z BUT ANOTHER PLANE IS DUE TO MAKE A CENTER FIX AROUND 05Z...AND WE SHALL SEE IF MITCH HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS WEAK AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN 29 DEG C OVER THE AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE. THE EYE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT CURRENT MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 7 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED. ONE KEY FACTOR FOR THE STEERING OF MITCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS HOW MUCH MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THERE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE GIVING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MITCH WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD...BUT SLOW...MOTION DEVELOPING SOON. A NORTHWARD TURN IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS...THIS TRACK STILL KEEPS MITCH OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DUE TO THE CURRENT WESTWARD TRACK...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO COORDINATE THESE WARNINGS WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THAT COUNTRY DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.4N 81.7W 130 KTS 12HR VT 26/1200Z 16.4N 82.5W 135 KTS 24HR VT 27/0000Z 16.5N 83.2W 135 KTS 36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.6N 83.8W 130 KTS 48HR VT 28/0000Z 17.0N 84.5W 125 KTS 72HR VT 29/0000Z 18.0N 84.5W 115 KTS NNNN

emphasis mine