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National Hurricane Center Advisories

Data from the Plymouth State College (PSC) Weather Center
URL: http://vortex.plymouth.edu




733 


WTNT33 KNHC 270230


TCPAT3


BULLETIN


HURRICANE MITCH ADVISORY NUMBER  22


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL


10 PM EST MON OCT 26 1998


 


A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HONDURAS...


AND FOR SWAN ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE.


A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR


THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  INTERESTS ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA


AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN


CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY


DANGEROUS HURRICANE.


 


AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MITCH WAS LOCATED


NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.1 WEST OR A SHORT
DISTANCE


WEST OF SWAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...NORTH OF THE


COAST OF HONDURAS.





MITCH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...


AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
A


DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.


 


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 180 MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH


HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR DURING
THE


NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT MITCH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY


DANGEROUS HURRICANE CAPABLE OF CAUSING CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE.


 


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...


FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP


TO 175 MILES...280 KM.


 


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  906 MB...26.75 INCHES.


 


RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS


OF HONDURAS AND OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  THESE RAINS
COULD


CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL


AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS
AFFECTING


THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.


 


COASTAL FLOODING FROM STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING


WAVES IS OCCURRING OVER THE COAST OF HONDURAS...SWAN ISLAND AND
THE


CAYMAN ISLANDS.





REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...17.4 N... 84.1 W.  MOVEMENT


TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...180


MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 906 MB.


 


AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE


CENTER AT 1 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4
AM


EST...TUESDAY.


 


PASCH


 


STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE


FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.


 










771 


WTNT23 KNHC 270235


TCMAT3


HURRICANE MITCH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1398


0300Z TUE OCT 27 1998


 


A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HONDURAS...


AND FOR SWAN ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE.


A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR


THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  INTERESTS ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA


AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN


CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY


DANGEROUS HURRICANE.


 


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  84.1W AT 27/0300Z


POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM


 


PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  7
KT


 


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  906 MB


EYE DIAMETER  20 NM


MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT


64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW


50 KT.......100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW


34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW


12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 200SW 350NW


ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES


 


REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  84.1W AT 27/0300Z


AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  83.8W


 


FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N  85.0W


MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 185 KT


64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW


50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW


34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW


 


FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N  85.5W


MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 180 KT


64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW


50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW


34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW


 


FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N  85.8W


MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT


64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW


50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW


34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 150NW


 


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 
84.1W


 


EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE


 


OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.5N  86.0W


MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT


50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW


 


OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N  86.0W


MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT


50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW


 


NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z


 


PASCH


 


STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE


FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.