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April 10, 2001

Prosperous Colombians Fleeing, Many to the              U.S.

By JUAN FORERO

Robert Stolarik for The                          New York Times

At the American Embassy in Bogotá, a                          long line of people seeking visas formed hours before                          the opening time.

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In                    the War on Coca, Colombian Growers Simply Move Along                    (March 17, 2001) Week                    in Review: America Gets Candid About What Colombia Needs                    (Feb. 25, 2001)

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OGOTÁ, Colombia, April 9 ? Sergio Foschini's construction              supplies store is gone now. He also liquidated three shops in other              cities and shuttered his once profitable construction company on the              Caribbean coast, leaving dozens of employees without work.

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With his wife and children, he then left Colombia, joining              hundreds of thousands of his compatriots ? many of them              college-educated, a growing number of them affluent like Mr.              Foschini ? who have fled conflict and economic stagnation for the              United States and beyond.

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"We spent two years thinking about it, two years of losing money              and not producing," Mr. Foschini, who has been in Miami since last              June, said in a recent telephone interview. "And finally we decided              on another adventure, another path. It's not what you want, though.              You want to stay in your country."

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Frustrated with four years of recession and terrified by the              crime and kidnappings that feed on and flourish in a grinding civil              conflict, many of Colombia's most promising young professionals and              business people have reluctantly abandoned this country in the hope              of finding success and stability.

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In all, nearly 1.1 million of Colombia's 40 million people have              departed since 1996, the government says, a mass migration that              rivals the exodus of Cubans after Fidel Castro's revolution in 1959.              Many have wound up in the United States, which the Census Bureau              estimates has a Colombian-American community of 435,000.

In the United States they have injected new life into a              decades-old community in Queens and added muscle to an increasingly              politically active enclave in Miami. Still others have made new              homes in far-flung locales like Australia, Toronto and Madrid, while              some have started businesses in Costa Rica.

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The departure has meant more hopeful lives for innumerable              families and a flow of remittances from abroad that are sure to help              others who are struggling here in Colombia. But the size of the              departure has started to raise concerns about the long-term effects              here, both to Colombia's economy and to its battered psyche. Some              entrepreneurs and investors are liquidating businesses and laying              off workers, contributing to an economic morass that helps to feed              the social unrest that led to armed conflict in the first place.

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According to conservative estimates by business organizations,              the flight of capital ? in closed bank accounts, investments and              other assets ? has reached $2 billion in two years, sizable in a              country with a $90 billion gross domestic product.

Some academics and intellectuals here say the exodus has also              deepened the class-based schism that is ingrained in Colombian              society. Many who leave are urban middle- or upper-class Colombians              who have the bank accounts and property that permit them to obtain              travel visas.

Poor Colombians, those most vulnerable in the country's largely              rural conflict, have virtually no chance of leaving legally.

Perhaps most distressing, some Colombia experts and economists              say, the migration is draining the best and brightest from the solid              middle class, the kind of people the country sorely needs to              rebuild.

"The departure of educated people from Colombia represents a              significant brain drain," said Bruce Bagley, a leading Colombia              expert at the University of Miami. "The talent pool, more and more,              is being reduced. If they get rid of all the professionals and all              of the entrepreneurs, then all you're left with is the political              hacks. And that is not good for Colombia."

The conflict that has spawned the exodus is increasingly brutal,              pitting leftist guerrilla groups against an ineffective military and              an illegal right-wing paramilitary army responsible for most of the              massacres.

Although most who flee the country are rarely touched directly by              war, a growing number say rebels have taken aim at them for              extortion or kidnapping. Colombia is the world's leader in              kidnappings: last year 3,706 people were taken hostage, 66 percent              of them by the two largest rebel groups.

Colombia has also been hard hit economically in recent years,              reversing decades of economic stability and one of Latin America's              longest- sustained growth rates. The economy contracted by 4.5              percent in 1999 and grew by 2.81 percent last year. The unemployment              rate stands at 20 percent, Latin America's highest.

The overwhelming sentiment here is that those who can leave              Colombia should.

Yet perhaps because there is also a sense that the exodus could              make an already difficult situation worse, a nascent movement              involving business people, academics, students and the media has              begun to try to reverse the trend.

Jorge Giraldo, owner of Publik, a company specializing in              electronic billboards, has begun a multimedia campaign called "Here              I Stay," in which the country's attributes are lauded. At the              University of the Andes in Bogotá, art students have plastered              streets with posters and handed out fliers that ask people, "Why              haven't you left for Miami?" ? a question meant to spur debate.

And at RCN Radio and Television, a daily campaign asks              Colombians, "Why are you proud to be Colombian?" Those who answer              with poems, drawings and essays can win computers or              scholarships.

"The campaign is looking to confront the large-scale skepticism              that we have in this country and reduce the number of people who              leave," said Constanza Escobar, manager of marketing for RCN. "We're              trying to inject some positive feeling for the whole  population."

Not everyone who follows the economy agrees that the exodus will              have negative repercussions.

Álvaro Cadavid, director of an executive headhunting firm in              Bogotá, said many Colombians who left could not find work and so              their departure served as an economic safety valve. "It's too bad              people have left," he said, "but it's good, too, because they opened              space for others."

Many economists and academics disagree.

"There's no question that this is a very worrisome trend," said              Donald F. Terry, manager of the Multilateral Investment fund of the              Inter- American Development Bank in Washington. Colombia has enjoyed              a strong entrepreneurial class and a force of well-educated workers,              Mr. Terry said.

But if large numbers of those people leave, he said, "then one of              Colombia's most positive aspects in terms of growth will be              adversely affected." He said that if the trend continued over a              decade, "then I think it is Pollyannish to think that this is in any              way positive."

Many Colombians who have left or are planning to leave agree that              the mass migration is detrimental.

"We're losing a youth that's prepared," said Augusto López, 64,              who left Colombia in 1999 and runs a venture capital firm in Miami.              "They're coming from good universities in Colombia and also good              ones in the United States, and then they haven't gone back."

But prospective immigrants in Bogotá as well as recently arrived              ones in Canada, New York and Miami said in interviews that the              country's myriad problems left few options.

"You might try to say to yourself, `Stick around, things will get              better,' " said Miguel Pinedo, a Bogotá resident and business              manager who will soon leave for New York. "But in the next 10 years              I don't see things getting better."

Jenny Romero, 24, a biologist, said her professional future had              dried up because she could no longer carry out her work in the              rebel-controlled countryside. She said half of the biology students              who graduated from college with her had also left the country.

"You don't have a real motivation to stay, because it's quite              difficult to get a job," said Ms. Romero, who is now working on a              graduate degree in Canada. "And if you have a job it's hard to get              into the countryside."

Most Colombians are leaving for well-established              Colombian-American communities in the United States, with 256,831              people traveling on tourist visas last year, up from 136,584 in              1996.

Many later extend tourist visas for up to a year or switch to              student visas, which can be used for longer periods. Wealthy              entrepreneurs can apply for an investor visa, and highly skilled              workers can obtain temporary or even permanent work permits.

A growing number are also applying for political asylum, with              1,165 Colombians, or 65 percent of applicants, winning approval in              2000. In 1993 only 17 Colombians received asylum. Others are joining              an illegal population of Colombians that numbers an estimated              85,000.

Those who have embarked on new lives, even professionals with              plenty of work experience, say it has not been easy. The spacious              apartments, maids and country homes of Colombia become a distant              memory.

María Robles, 34, and her husband, Oswaldo Ovalle, 35, architects              who owned a construction company in Bogotá, left for Miami after the              rebels demanded money. Now, Mr. Robles works at a construction              job.

"It's been traumatic to the point that sometimes we say, `Let's              go back,' " Ms. Robles said. "But the security issue is so              important, and then we think about our children."

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