The People's Choice is a series of files that examined the purpose of public opinion polling in the election process. Like all scientific studies, a sample of the population is studied to note changes, and its factors. During the 1940's presidential election in Erie County, Ohio, this research was done to note the trends of Public opinion. The study, limited to one social event and development provided the sample environment to evaluate the American people's attitudes, beliefs and opinions. The public opinion polls conducted during the research indicated which direction the county would vote; that was either democratic or republican. From the files of The People's Choice, data were available on the following topics: vote intention, personal liking of Roosevelt, personal liking of Willkie, attitude toward the third term: and opinion on the importance of government vs. business. The People's Choice focused on the formation of change and development of public opinion. It discussed the mechanisms through which the attitudes of a group are formed, two of which is the opinion leadership and "emergence" opinion or group thinking.

Analysis

Beliefs are the fundamental values people hold, ideas on the political system in general and the nature of society. Political attitudes, which are narrower, and are the broad general political preferences people have. They constitute what might be called political tendencies, such as democratic or republican. Opinions are the thoughts people have on specific policy questions such as taxes, wars and government actions and policies. There is a distinct difference between an individual's opinions and collective opinion. Individuals, have long­term preferences and sound general ideas about politics and public affairs. Their short term responses to issues and events may vary around this central tendency, but they are polled over the long term, their central values and proclivities become evident.

There are three major determinants that predict public opinions and these are as follows; low levels of public information or the level of interest, and differences across subgroups. First, the level of information the public possesses and its interests in politics are both quite low. The public is far more concern with the personal aspect of the campaign than the political aspect. There is competition between the problems of their private world and those of the public world. (Lazarsfeld, pp 120) Additionally, when asked what matters interest them, respondents always rate politic low At the peak of the campaign, in late October, about half the population ignored stories on the front page of their newspapers or political speeches by the candidates themselves, and about 75% of the people ignored the magazines' stories about the election. In short, the flood of political material at the time, far from drowning any of these people, did not even get their feet wet. ( Lazarsfeld, pp.121) The research showed that jobs, family and religion absorb more energy than following public affairs.

Second, certain words can trigger immediate positive or negative reactions. The level of interest greatly decides the outcome of the election polls. People on a higher level of interest will participate more in politically, have more opinions on issues and they expose themselves more to the stream of political communications. "On each educational level the older people are more interested in the election than the younger ones." (Lazarsfeld, pp. 44) This does suggest that older people are more informed and learnt than the younger generation. But with closer examination it was concluded that this factor does play a role in deciphering people's choice. However, the factor of proximity has a far greater effect in moderating public opinion.

Third, social class, family or close association, gender, age, religion and region also affect opinions. The book called this the political homogeneity of social groups. As the study showed, voting is essentially a group experience. " People who have certain characteristics in common are more likely to belong to same groups. We know from general observation, for instance, that people tend to associate with others of their own age rather than with people considered older or younger than themselves. If we find then that there are marked differences in voting between various age groups, we would have inferential evidence that people who have closer contact with each other are more apt to vote alike. (Lazarsfeld, pp 137­138) Individuals do not belong to one group only. For that reason cross-pressures from different social groups occur in both the personal and social lives of individuals.

The other aspect to sub-grouping occurs in a more personal environment, such as the influence of family or close association or "the nature of Personal influence." The homogeneity of the family determines the trend of political attitudes. In the one of two cases in the book political conformity stabilized domestic peace. In order to avoid conflict or cross-pressures, individuals concede to the group thought and the established attitudes of the community or unit. "Probably will vote Democratic because my grandfather will skin me if I don't." (Lazarsfeld, pp 142) Under this heading, the two­step flow of communications comes into play, in which the "opinion leaders" determine the shift of those in the community who were undecided. In the case where the media and the public sources of information fails to impress people's choice or opinion, the opinion leaders exert that influence. "This suggests that ideas often flow from radio and print to the opinion leaders and from them to less active sections of the population." (Lazarsfeld, pp. 151)

Although people often speak of the "mass media" as a unified organization, in fact the various media are fragmented and quite competitive. As it was noted in The People's Choice, the two means of mass media, the radio and the newspaper mentioned appealed to the various subgroups of the population. In the time in which the study was conducted, it was easy to generalize that almost all republicans were the educated and the opposite was true for democrats. It is understandable, when the book pointed out that the difference in people's political attitudes determines what appeal one medium has on one segment of the population as oppose to the other. "In exposure, in congeniality of ideas, in trust and in influence­ in all of these characteristics the Republicans inclined in favor of the newspaper and the Democrats in favor of the radio. Among people with the same amounts of formal education, the Republican read the newspaper more than the Democrats and the Democrats listened to the radio more than the Republicans (Lazarsfeld, pp.129)

Bearing in mind that this study was done more than fifty years ago, using the media to determine people's attitudes and choice is valid to some extent. "In summary, then, Republicans preferred the newspaper and Democrats the radio. Each party exposed more to" its own " medium, found it more congenial, trusted it more, and was more influenced by it." (Lazarsfeld, pp.131) More people get their news from television today than other sources, but newspapers and magazines' readers are usually better informed. This also suggests that Republicans and Democrats stand on different grounds on many issues and not entirely a factor of more exposure to politic. The book noted two ideological differences between the two parties: " 1) they take opposite sides on social issues and 2) they diverge along a hypothetical scale of political extroversion or social inclusiveness. " (Lazarsfeld, pp.35) Again, it is, like the levels of information, the level of interest and subgroups, that is a determinant of the people's choice and not entirely based on this one factor.

Lazarsfeld, Paul F. The People's Choice. How the voter makes up his mind in a Presidential Campaign. Third Edition: Columbia University Press. New York 1968.

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