Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among members of a social system (Rogers 1983 p.5). The essence of the diffusion process suggested by Rogers (1983) is communication-based, placing emphasis on the human interaction in which one person communicates a new idea or product to another person, thereby reducing any uncertainties about it and encouraging adoption. Past research on the diffusion of innovations show that the adoption rate of new products takes the form of a predictable, set pattern that when graphed, resembles an S-curve: a slow uptake by only a few, followed by a fast, steep increase as the product takes off. The curve flattens again when the market becomes saturated. The shape of the S curve varies depending on how fast the product is adopted: a curve that is initially very steep suggests rapid diffusion while a flatter, more gradual curve represents a slower diffusion rate. The diffusion of innovations is able to provide an explanation of how long it will take for new products to spread, how to speed up this process and the types of people that are more likely to adopt earlier than others. According to Straubhaar and LaRose (1995), this approach has proved to be "one of the most useful in describing how new technologies get accepted and used" (p39). However, a problem with the diffusion of innovations is that it ignores the fact that widespread adoption is not guaranteed; it is somewhat deterministic and does not provide any leeway for failure. In the past, optimistic forecasts for new communication media products and services have been easily found, but often wrong (Klopfenstein 1989). Schnaars (1989) suggests a rationale for such over-optimism, stating that "perhaps we should all like to think that the future will be very different from the present...that we are really moving ahead" (p117). Although virtual reality (VR) has been heralded to be the ultimate form of communication and the next step in technological progression, it could all be only a hype and totally immersive systems may not be possible for a long time. It is dangerous to apply the diffusion of innovations to new technology such as VR as much of it is still being refined in research labs. In fact, the ultimate form that these systems will take is yet to be completely developed, and forecast of VR’s growth can only be based pure speculation. Nevertheless, the application of diffusion theory can importantly describe the current state of VR adoption as well as provide a better understanding of the possible factors that will shorten the time required for the spread of these systems.

 The term "virtual reality" was coined by Jaron Lanier to refer to three-dimensional realities implemented with stereo viewing goggles and data gloves. Steuer (1992) shifts this emphasis from the hardware used to the human experience, defining VR as "a remote or artificially constructed environment in which one feels a sense of presence as a result of using a communication medium" (p75). Shapiro & McDonald (1992) describe VR as "no matter how the user moves or interacts, the user will not be able to determine whether his/her environment is real or virtual" (p212). This ideal, however, may never be possible, but it is what some strive for and can serve as a benchmark for researchers to work against. There are different types of VR systems that generate different environments, including Window On World (WoW) systems, augmented reality systems, and immersive systems which represents VR in its "ultimate" form (Isdale 1993). Totally immersive VR systems seem to be the goal of many researchers, that is, being able to create an environment and sense that the individual is totally cut off from 'ordinary' reality and its sensory cues (Mizrach 1996). The diffusion of immersive VR systems is only at its very early stages, and widespread adoption of these systems is not likely to occur for several more decades.

 Since the 1950s, VR has been employed by the US military to train pilots with the use of flight simulators. When VR systems were made commercially available in the late 80s, they were used mainly by scientists and technologists researching the technology. More recently, however, VR systems have shown much potential in the fields of entertainment, medicine, architecture and design. To date, the diffusion rate of VR systems has been very slow and one can expect its S curve to remain rather flat for still some time. In 1991, there were only 400 VR systems in the world (Rheingold 1991), but as of mid-1994, Pimental & Teixeira (1995) estimated about 1500 fully immersive VR systems that existed globally. As we head towards a new millenium, the environment is right for such advanced technology as home computers and networks are becoming ubiquitous. With the hype created by the mass media, there is already much awareness of VR; however, for these systems to reach critical mass and be used widely, the technology must be improved to provide a more immersive, networked environment without the side effects, and practical applications available at affordable prices. Pimental & Teixeira (1995) predict the VR industry to experience a period of rapid growth over the next 30-40 years, but in the near term, VR firms will continue to struggle to exist in a small but growing market.

The factors that will most likely affect the diffusion of these systems include 1) the form that VR will take, 2) the communication channels and adopter networks, 3) more practical applications, 4) improved technology and price, 5) reducing possible side effects, and 6) the cultural environment, norms and policies. Advances in technology combined with a fall in price and an increase in the number of useful applications will help make VR systems more common. In addition, the availability of wider bandwidth for global connection of these systems will encourage more adoption and use. With more funding, perhaps from the government, further research into improving the technology will be made possible.
II THE INNOVATION

VR AND THE FORM IT WILL TAKE
The form that VR systems will take in the future will affect its rate of adoption. VR is a technological innovation which is part of a broader set of computing and communications technologies. They are "technology clusters" (Rogers 1983) and immersive VR systems include the use of input/output devices such as a computer (the reality engine), head-mounted display, a position tracker, as well as haptic and tactile systems. The eventual form that VR technology will take and to what extent VR will be bundled up with other technologies plays an important role. If individuals do not have to make VR adoption decisions but rather, are able to experience VR in their old applications, i.e. if VR were incorporated into computer operating systems, it would be more broadly experienced and will diffuse more rapidly (Valente & Bardini 1995). However, if VR were to be made available as a completely stand-alone device, the diffusion rate may be slower as there is much competition from existing technologies such as super computers. The integration of VR systems into existing, successfully diffused technologies such as the networked home computer, on the other hand, will facilitate VR’s widespread use.


IMPROVED TECHNOLOGY
The mass media has hyped up what VR is and has not been representative of the current technology available, but research on improving the technology is ongoing throughout the world (Pimental & Teixeira 1995). The decision to adopt VR is influenced by the technology itself, and should these systems fail to live up to the expectations of the users, they are more likely to be rejected than adopted. A major factor that will affect the diffusion of VR is much related to an improvement in the technology and lowered prices. According to Pimental & Teixeira (1995), "continuing the VR industry’s growth is mostly an issue of delivering graphics at higher resolution for less money" (p341). All the major components of VR already work, however, current VR systems are very much limited by computing power. There have been claims that a fifty fold improvement in performance is needed before VR will look real (Biocca & Meyer 1994). Rapid improvement in VR applications and hardware, combined with the reduced cost of these systems will foster the growth of the VR industry and hasten VR’s rate of adoption. As computer systems get faster, less expensive and more powerful, VR systems will do so as well and will increasingly become a part of everyday life (Weiss 1996). Future VR interactions need to be more natural than present ones which will also require less obtrusive input and output devices, gestural and speech input, full body feedback, faster networks and large team simulations (Burdea & Coiffet 1994). Current VR systems also suffer from having low display resolution, a narrow field of view, and a lack of detail (Brooks1993 cited in Biocca & Meyer 1994). In the past, much emphasis has been placed on head-mounted displays (HMDs) which have been considered too cumbersome and expensive to have any widespread appeal. Today, companies like Virtuality specialise in HMDs and have successfully developed more light-weight goggles with higher resolution and a wide field of view. These are being used, for example, by Kawasaki in Japan for student drivers to experience dangerous scenarios without actual crashing a motorcycle (Virtuality 1996). One of the main problems of current VR systems is systems lag; it still takes a long time for the image to catch up to the viewer’s movement which has found to cause motion sickness in some users.

SIDE EFFECTS
Cybersickness is the perceived risk that is negatively related to the rate of VR adoption. According to Biocca (1992), it is "largely a product of the imperfection of the present technology" (P341). Kolasinski (1995) from U.S. Army Research Institute reports that the most common effects of simulator exposure resemble the motion sickness symptoms such as general discomfort, drowsiness, sweating, and vomiting. Strauss (1995) reports that most people who suffer cybersickness from using VR may sweat, salivate, turn pale and experience headaches, fatigue and nausea. Users may also experience flashbacks after operating a simulator. In a study conducted by Isdale (1993), subjects were put on a stationary bike and were asked to cycle around a virtual rural road for ten minutes. The results show that half the subjects subsequently experienced blurred vision and signs of binocular stress. Other side effects suggested include eyestrain, joint injury from heavy equipment, and addiction to the VR world (Kist 1996) while Cartwright (1994) suggests that VR has serious implications for mental health, particularly for individuals on drugs or already impaired with dealing with reality. The possible side effects related to the use of VR can seriously deter its adoption. On the other hand, Regan (1993 cited in Kolasinski 1995) suggests that repeated immersions in a VR environment will result in a decrease in sickness as subjects become more accustomed to, and confident about interaction with the system.

PRICE
Not only will an an improvement in the technology reduce the possibility of side effects but also spur the growth of the industry and lower the price of VR systems. Price is an important predictor of an innovation’s diffusion rate. For VR use to become more widespread, it is crucial for prices to be affordable by more industries and individuals. Today VR runs on systems that cost from US$10,000 to $200,000 and beyond (Pimental & Teixeira 1995) but this is beginning to change. Feldberg (1996) gathered data from current VR catalogs and reported the lowest prices for some hardware and peripherals: HMDs at US$800, position trackers at US$999, VR software at US$150, and datagloves for as low as US$80. As VR systems are made more affordable, more will adopt as VR does have it’s advantages over existing media.


RELATIVE ADVANTAGE
According to Rogers (1983), relative advantage is "the degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes" (p.15).
A factor that affects the diffusion of VR is that it must offer a real or imagined benefit over the current way of doing things. The greater the relative advantage of VR, the more rapid its rate of adoption. The degree of relative advantage may be measured in economic terms, but social-prestige factors as well as VR’s ability to provide high interactivity with vivid images may also play a part. VR can bring people together across time and space, providing as well all features of communication by simulating ideal face to face medium. Palmer (1995) posits that VR can realistically simulate elements of face to face interactions in real time and in any created environment of choice, for example, two people may decide to meet in a virtually warm and sunny beach. According to Steuer (1995), communication technologies vary in terms of vividness and interactivity, the two factors that contribute to the degree of "telepresence" of a medium. Traditional media like film is high in vividness but low in interactivity while Internet Relay Chat is high in interactivity but low in vividness. Immersive VR systems, on the other hand, promise to provide a sense of being there, with a high level of both vividness and interactivity blurring a user’s sense of what is and is not real. Communications via immersive VR systems will top both media richness and social presence scales. VR users will have sensations of being present in an environment and will perceive objects and other users there as being equally present. Full 'presence' is not provided any current technology, but in an immersive VR environment, the realistic feedback that is provided will lead users to feel they are actually in a place. For instance, subjects experiencing a computer-simulated Sharkworld may have the feeling they are in the ocean, moving around a shark-infested ship wreck. This subjective experience of "presence" in the virtual environment is thought to be the essence of virtual reality (Hunter G. Hoffman, Keith C. Hullfish, and Stacey J. Houston 1995). Valente & Bardini (1995) argue that more individuals will begin using VR when it is available on a communication medium and others also exist on the network. VR can provide the traditional benefits of electronic media by bringing people together across time and space while able to simulate the ideal face-to-face interaction (Palmer 1995). A majority of people want to experience virtual environments with other people (Heeter 1995) and VR is able to bring new forms of communication and social interaction. VR can also enable the experience of concepts unrealisable in the real world or environments that are too dangerous to test in real life. Users engaged in immersive VR may be able to travel to a virtual mouth of an active volcano, or bungee jump off the Eiffel Tower. With VR, people can also represent themselves to those they encounter in any way they choose, for example as a lamp-post, a movie star or a talking polar bear.

TRIALABILITY
For the rate of VR adoption to increase and become more widespread, potential adopters must be able to experience VR for themselves. An innovation that is trialable represents less uncertainty to the individual who is considering it for adoption (Rogers 1983). In the past years, demonstrations of VR have only allowed a limited number of people to try VR gloves and goggles, that is, only those who visit museum exhibits or professional conferences (Valente & Bardini 1995). The Mattel Powerglove was made commercially available from 1989 to 1991 as an input for Nintendo video games, and as a result, those who purchased this peripheral have a grasp of how these gloves basically work. To date, VR systems can be tried at games arcades around the world, but these are only of lower level immersion, that is, simulation cabs. "Pay to play" VR is a hot item at entertainment centers and theme parks including Disneyland where users can use a flight simulator for US$20-25 each twenty minute session (Novell 1996). BattleTech players sit in fighter cockpits and have become an instant hit at $7 per ten minutes. Valente & Bardini (1995) suggest that if the trial of VR systems occurs rapidly, everyone in the potential market for experiencing VR will do so within the next ten years. Subsequently, it is important for those who have a first hand experience in the technology to provide the necessary information to encourage the rest of the population to try and adopt. Communication channels and social networks are important to enable the transfer and exchange of such information.


III COMMUNICATION CHANNELS

MASS MEDIA
Rogers and Shoemaker (1971) classify the innovation-adoption process into four stages to include: knowledge, persuasion, decision and confirmation. The knowledge and awareness of VR is widespread and can be attributed much to the mass media. As Hamilton (1996) suggests, "if nothing else, a TV series such as Star Trek: the Next Generation can be an example of how science fiction brings to our attention innovations we lack today and technologies we desire for tomorrow" (p41). The awareness of VR has diffused widely in a short period of time through mass media channels. The term "virtual reality" was coined by Jaron Lanier in 1987 during which the popular conceptions of VR was strongly shaped by the science fiction genre (Sterling 1988 cited in Valente & Bardini 1995). After VR pioneers VPL and Autodesk demonstrated their products at a large computer graphics conference in 1989, VR terms and images began to appear in major newspapers, TV, magazines and movies. By 1990, research on VR broadened to include medicine and architectural applications, and more detailed explorations of the possibilities appeared in the media (Chesher 1995). In 1992, the movie Lawnmower Man brought VR even wider exposure. By this time, there were 5 companies in the US marketing complete VR systems and 62 others working on related technologies. Biocca, Kim & Levy (1995) studied the number of articles mentioning the term "virtual reality" in 96 daily newspapers between January 1988 and December 1993 to find over 450 of these articles. Valente & Bardini (1995) suggest that everyone will be aware of the term VR and have some understanding of its meaning by the year 2000. According to Biocca & Levy (1995) the awareness of VR has penetrated over 90% of the institutional elites in the communication, computer and information processing communities, and over 50% of the general public (p28). Undoubtedly, another factor that has contributed to the awareness of VR is the Internet. This network has grown to include literally millions of online users around the world, and provides approximately 200,000 links to sites providing information on available VR commercial products, university research projects, technical discussions and more. In addition, newsgroups such as sci.virtual.worlds successfully provide a forum for global discussion about VR and surrounding issues for developers and potential adopters (Chesher1995).

Most diffusion research studies report that the mass media are important in creating awareness-knowledge of innovations, particularly at the first stages of the diffusion process (Rogers 1983). Personal computers was one of the most widely advertised products in the US, however, Rogers (1986) posits that the diffusion of home computers is "...overwhelmingly a process of interpersonal networks" (p124). Once the knowledge stage is reached, the next stage of innovation adoption is the persuasion stage where early adopters influence later adopters to use VR. A satisfied owner of an innovation will be more influential to friends and near-peers than mass media messages which are too general to provide specific kinds of reinforcement that individuals need to confirm their beliefs (about VR)
(Rogers1983). The social networks of innovators and early adopters are extremely important to VR’s diffusion rate. The more network links of VR’s early adopters such as scientists, researchers, doctors and architects, the faster the rate of diffusion. According to Valente and Bardini (1995), the whole course of VR diffusion will be one in which individuals persuade others to join the virtual worlds and recruit others to enter the environment.

IV ADOPTER CATEGORIES AND VR APPLICATIONS

According to Rogers (1983) interpersonal channels are more important to late adopters who do not rely so much on mass media channels because an existing bank of interpersonal knowledge has already accumulated in their system by the time they decide to adopt. Individuals adopt new products at different times, and their characteristics such as income, education, socio-economic status and achievement motivation have been associated with the rate of adoption (Tushman & Moore 1988). Rogers (1983) identifies categories which classify the members of a social system, based on their level of innovativeness, with a normal frequency distribution to approximate the percentage of adopters included in each (see Figure A below).



Figure A. Adopter categorisation on the basis of adoption time
(taken from Rogers 1983, p243)

The five groups of adopters suggested by Rogers (1983) can be used to describe today’s and some of tomorrow’s users of VR systems. With reference to Figure A, the area to the left of the mean time, minus two standard deviations (SDs) is the first 2.5% of adopters, namely "the innovators". Innovators are typified to be more cosmopolite, venturesome, of higher income and education. They are always seeking to innovate or try out new things. According to Furnham (1994), these may be "innovation junkies" who go for anything new and different, irrespective of its usefulness, quality or design. Applied to those who have adopted VR systems, this category of users represents the US military which has been using flight simulators since the 50’s. Government agencies such as the military are well funded and possess the necessary resources to employ such an innovation. Those inventors and researchers who are involved in the development of VR systems also fall into this category. They may not be as socially-integrated but are important in communicating about VR systems and its development to others in their social network.

The next 13.5% of users consists of "early adopters" who take little persuasion to be among the first to use VR. Early adopters of new media compared with later adopters have higher socio-economic status, are more cosmopolite and more likely to use mass media channels, have greater empathy, less dogmatic and more rational (Rogers 1986, p147). They are a more integrated part of the social system and are more likely to be opinion leaders than any other group (Rogers 1983). Potential adopters look to these trusted and respected opinion leaders to seek advice and information about the innovation. Opinion leaders, then, can either increase the adoption rate of VR because of their positive comments or they could also make negative comments about VR and slow down its adoption rate. With regards to VR systems, this category of early adopters/opinion leaders are comprised of the location-based entertainment , medicine, architecture and design industries. Many new technologies, as in the case of VR systems, are adopted and implemented sooner by organisations and not individuals.

Entertainment products are currently the largest section of the VR market (Monnet 1995) and has been suggested to be the application that will bring VR into homes and to the masses (Bletter 1993, Biocca & Levy 1995, Hawkins 1995). As of mid 1994, it is estimated that about 1500 head-tracked, fully immersive VR systems exist in the world of which 60% of these are entertainment systems (Pimental & Teixeira 1995). Today, there are over 20 companies in the US alone that manufacture and market immersive VR entertainment systems (Feldberg 1996). Although current entertainment VR systems may still be crude, location-based VR arcades are beginning to surface and Hawkins (1995) believes that it is this market that will probably push the price down and make higher-end systems more affordable.

However, Valente & Bardini (1995) suggest that if VR remains a gimmick of video game makers in the next decade, VR adoption will remain only a toy, therefore, more practical applications will increase VR’s rate of diffusion.
For the widespread adoption of VR, the usefulness of VR systems outside of the field of computer and video games has to be proven by demonstrating its practical use and relevance in other applications. According to Biocca & Meyer (1994), practical applications are the key to the growth of the VR industry. Further than entertainment, VR is being accepted as viable for a range of more serious applications such as in architectural and construction industries. The advantage of the use of VR for both architects and their clients is that they can experience the structure before actual construction begins (Briggs 1996). The University of North Carolina successfully demonstrated the practical use of VR with the design of Sittersen Hall, while Japanese household appliance company, Matsushita, uses VR to help customers design their own kitchen. In addition, UCLA architects and urban planners used VR as a tool in the rebuilding of LA after the riots of April 1992 (Chesher 1995). In 1993, an award-winning application was Wheelchair VR, developed by an American company to improve building access for the disabled. With Wheelchair VR, people in wheelchairs explore an architectural design before its construction to see if there are any problems for wheelchair access (Piper 1994).

In the medical field, surgeons can use VR to practice difficult operations without touching an actual patient. The doctors at Georgia Institute of Technology medical college perform virtual eye surgery to seeing how it "feels" to cut into eye tissue with a scalpel and remove a lens (Kist1996 p27). VR has also been used as cost effective therapy. The National Institute of Health, the US Army and Boeing Computer services are funding a study where a virtual helicopter is used to help those with a fear of flying (Sieder 1996). Two applications that were named product of the year in 1995 by CyberEdge Journal involved the use of VR as a teaching tool for autistic kids and the Starbright World Virtual Playground which gives hospitalised kids in five different hospitals and cities a chance to play games, and communicate with each other in a shared virtual world (CyberEdge Journal 1995). Immersive VR is also being used in large scale consumer product design. Mercedes-Benz uses simulators that bounce the car around as if it were on the road (Bletter 1993) while fashion designers can discuss ideas with buyers wearing HMDs and gloves to get a more realistic view of the proposed design, and by issuing voice instructions, can make the model raise leg or arm, or move around (Condon 1996). VR remains a powerful tool for the US space program. In 1995, astronaut Bernard Harris used VR training to prepare for his space walk which enabled practice of every aspect of the walk and a feel for what space would be like prior to the actual event (Nellis 1996).

To date, VR systems have only been adopted by those categorised as "innovators" and "early adopters". From an optimistic view, the estimated number of VR systems being used to date is far from representing 16% of total innovators and early adopters. As more businesses and institutes adopt VR systems, the number of users will continue to increase among the "early adopter" category. It can be hypothesised, then, that an "early majority" of users will make up the critical mass which will not be reached until better improved technology with wider bandwidth for global VR networking are made available.


CRITICAL MASS AND BANDWIDTH

According to Markus (1987), a critical mass of adopters of an interactive medium is necessary for the utility of the innovation to be sufficient for an individual to adopt. It is "a measure of the minimum number of participants needed to sustain a diffusion process" (Valente 1995 p79). In addition, the higher the number of people the system supports, the more likely VR will be adopted and used by both institutions and homes (Biocca & Delaney 1995). The diffusion of interactive VR systems, then, depends on a critical mass of users for this innovation to "take off". This critical mass of users can be described by the "early majority" which will comprise 34% of total VR adopters. According to Rogers (1983), these people are more deliberate and somewhat cautious for sometime before completely adopting a new product. This category is suited to describe businesses which are likely to adopt VR after teleconferencing applications are made available. The first households that adopt VR, perhaps for entertainment purposes, will also fall into this category of users. The point where VR will "take off", then, can be hypothesised to happen anywhere between 16% to 50% of total users.
VR is ultimately a medium for communication but networked immersive systems require the bandwidth of high-end cable transmission channels. Bandwidth is the data-carrying capacity a network needs to transmit video and other media (Brittan p50 1992). According to Biocca & Levy (1995), a scenario for home-based networked VR assumes successful installation of some from of "information highway" which would constitute the construction of a radically different communication system. In order to provide long distance linkages of simultaneous users to common virtual spaces, it is crucial that high speed networks eventually provide ample bandwidth and a sophisticated array of features for transmission and delivery. These are not yet in place. VR as a communication medium will require very fast, very high capacity information conduits (Rheingold 1991 p218). It has become quickly apparent, however, that the diffusion of information technologies is contingent on wide networking. When the telephone system fully supports VR systems, the nature of communication will be drastically altered (Biocca & Meyer 1994, p219). The US Dept of Defense is also working to integrate VR technology into its global computer network (Pimental & Teixeira 1995). It’s Simnet system allows over 200 tanks located around the globe to climb onto simulators and meet on a virtual battlefield.


V SOCIETY: CULTURE, NORMS AND ETHICS

The social system constitutes a boundary within which an innovation diffuses and will have an effect on the rate of VR’s adoption (Rogers 1983). Some researchers notice that the cultural values of the population play an important role in predicting the uptake of an innovation. The innovation's chances of survival increase if it does not go against important principles in that community (peru boiling water?).

For an innovation to succeed, there must be an absence of incompatibility with society's attitudes and mores. As we head towards a new millenium, the environment is right for immersive VR. People want change...cyberculture, with post babyboomers born with computers at home. According to Dysart (1995), "todays’ Nintendo generation is hungry to integrate the gripping interactive impact of VR’s communicative powers in every facet of their lives." The evolution of media technologies suggests that VR may rise to become the next dominant communication medium. Computers are becoming more widespread, and Internet use is on the increase every day, with an estimated 2 billion people connected from around the world. Today’s "hi tech" environment will facilitate the diffusion of VR which has been heralded as the next super medium.

The US federal government is pouring hundreds of millions into VR research for the military but it spends relatively little to help develop its civilian applications (Weiss 1996 p59). The degree of government involvement in VR standards setting and promotion of implementation will directly affect its diffusion (Valente & Bardini p308). The absence of government intervention and policies designed to create widespread adoption of VR will insure that VR adoption starts only among those most able financially to experience it. The ideal climate would be one in which 1. both govt and industry encourage domestic markets for the technology 2. people with vision hold responsible positions in funding agencies 3. adequate funds available for research in universities 4. govt coalitions with universities and industries establish high bandwidth channels necessary to provide shared resources to as many people as possible (Larijani 1994 p206).

 The most common ethical concern is that VR will skew humanity’s moral compass. Conventional morality will break down in virtual worlds as immoral actions have no consequences (Kershner 1995 p64). Teledildonics may pose a problem, although there will be a huge market for it. Another concern is whether VR will influence reality judgments (Shapiro and McDonald 1995). Rheingold (1991) suggests that VR is likely to complicate our judgments about reality. Spending too much time in VR could be damaging to those who need to confront reality, not to escape it..

VI SUMMARY

Despite the dangers of predicting the future of VR systems based on the somewhat deterministic theory of innovations diffusion, it is able to provide a broader understanding of the possible factors that will affect VR’s adoption and use in the coming years. Not only will VR systems become more widespread as the technology improves, and the prices drop, but also importantly relevant are the number of useful applications, especially for communicative purposes, networks of early adopters and how they persuade others to adopt, and the social , economic and political environment of the time also play important roles in speeding up the diffusion of VR systems. Rogers says that getting a new idea adopted, even when it has obvious advantages, is often difficult. Many technologists think that advantageous innovations will sell themselves, that the obvious benefits of a new idea will be widely realised by potential adopters, and that the innovation will therefore diffuse rapidly. Unfortunately this is very seldom the case. Most innovations, in fact, diffuse at a surprisingly slow rate.
Despite VR’s association with "electronic LSD", and move away from the counterculture from which VR had emerged. The developers had to make it palatable and attractive to the mainstream, and demonstrate VR had serious applications such as medicine, architecture and design. It also had to place itself and its particular significance in history (Chesher 1994). At present, VR systems are far from being what they "ought" to be. Based on an estimated total number of VR systems in existence, and an optimistic view of VR’s future, the current users of VR are only a part of what Rogers (1983) calls the "early adopters" category which comprises only 13.5% of all users. As more new users of VR fall into this category, and overflow into the next i.e. the "early majority", a critical mass of users will be reached and will enable VR to become widespread



Copyright: This work is owned exclusively by dykeypup (1997).