Representatives of the region's weather agencies
met in
Bangkok Monday and reported many recent weather
anomalies thought to be caused by the global
climatic
phenomenon, including temperature rises by
as much as 3
deg C in Thailand, a lack of tropical cyclones
in the
Philippines and heavy rainfall in coastal
China.
In Indonesia, the wet season which usually
starts in
September has suffered such severe delays
that some
parts of the country have yet to receive any
rainfall, while
the haze which hit Malaysia may have reduced
the
precipitation there, too.
The climatologists, who are taking part in
a major
conference called ''El Nino and related crises
in Asia'',
have yet to release an official forecast for
the rest of this
year, but it is clear from their reports that
the El
Nino-inspired drought will probably last until
the middle of
1998.
Weather forecasting models used by the US-based
International Research Institute for Climate
Prediction (IRI),
for instance, predict that most of Southeast
Asia will
experience lower than normal rainfall for
at least the next
three months, said Nick Graham of the Scripps
Institution
for Oceanography, part of the IRI team.
The IRI results also suggest the region most
likely to suffer
from severe drought is in the eastern archipelagic
states --
including the Philippines, eastern Indonesia
and the
Malaysian state of Sabah. These areas have
already
suffered a serious shortage of rainfall over
the last few
months.
''Normally, the Philippines receives an average
of nine
tropical cyclones each year, but in late 1997
only two hit
us,'' reported Dr Aida Jose of Pagasa, the
Philippine
weather agency. ''There were no tropical cyclones
in
September for the first time in 30 years.
When the storms
came in from the Pacific, they seemed to be
'afraid' of
entering the Philippines and move up north.
''El Nino usually causes a drought in the Philippines
from
January to June,'' she added, ''so we expect
below-normal
rainfall until the middle of the year.''
Indonesia is another country which has been
hard hit by
the global weather phenomenon. ''We are suffering
greatly,'' said a worried Sri Diharto, director
of Indonesia's
Meteorology and Geophysical Agency, ''especially
if you
add in the effects of the economic crisis.''
''The rainy season came late and provided relatively
little
rainfall, including in Java, which is home
to more than 100
million people,'' he said. ''The wet season
usually starts in
September, but in some regions it was delayed
until
November, December, even January. In eastern
Indonesia
[Irian Jaya] it has not yet started.''
Indonesia's drought also stoked its raging
forest fires last
year, releasing a smoky haze that extended
as far as
Phuket. Along with all the other damage caused
by the
haze, Malaysian weather experts now think
it may have
decreased the rainfall in the Malay peninsula.
''Our weather station in Malacca reported sub-normal
rainfall during the haze crisis from July
to October,'' said
Yong Pok Wing of the Malaysia Meteorological
Service.
''We think the haze may have suppressed the
convection
currents, because there was heavy rainfall
there towards
the end of the year.''
During past El Nino events, the Malaysian states
of Sabah
and Sarawak have suffered significant decreases
in
rainfall, he added, and last year was no exception.
Sabah
in particular received very little rain in
December.
The biggest surprise so far concerning the
impact of El
Nino in the Asia-Pacific region has been in
Australia,
which during previous events suffered from
severe
nationwide drought.
''Given the magnitude of the El Nino event,
the impact on
Australia has been fairly moderate,'' reported
Dr John
McBride of Australia's Meteorology Research
Centre.
''The southeastern portion of the country
was indeed quite
dry at the end of 1997, but elsewhere there
has been
higher than normal rainfall.''
Officials from Thailand, Laos and Cambodia
all reported
abnormally high temperatures as a result of
El Nino.
According to Muntana Brikshavana of Thailand's
Meteorological Department, December's mean
temperatures were a blistering 3 deg C above
normal in
the Central and Northeastern regions, while
the mercury
climbed by around 2.5 deg C in the East and
the North
and the South was only about 1.2 deg C warmer
than
normal.
El Nino's effect on rainfall in this region
was more patchy.
Northern Thailand, lowland Laos and Battambang
province in western Cambodia are all facing
situations of
drought. Overall, rainfall throughout Thailand
in 1997 was
11 per cent below average, said Muntana.
The effects of El Nino on Burma seemed a bit
more
ambiguous. U Pike of Burma's Department of
Meteorology and Hydrology reported that precipitation
was lower than normal in 1997, but also noted
that many
river basins were hit by floods.
Asked whether the flooding may have been the
result of
increased logging activities, U Pike said
he was ''not
sure'', because at least some of the floods
occurred in
non-logging areas in the northwestern part
of the country.
Coastal China and Taiwan, meanwhile, have been
hit by
heavy rainfall and Zhai Panmao of the China
National
Climate Centre predicts there will be further
heavy
precipitation in southeastern China during
the coming
months. However, the IRI forecast indicates
a high
probability of severe drought in southwestern
China,
including Yunnan.
Most of the participants in the conference,
which is being
hosted by the Asian Disaster Preparedness
Centre at AIT
with the support of the US National Oceanic
and
Atmospheric Administration, predicted that
relief from El
Nino would finally come starting around May.
''We can
expect improvement to begin in the west and
slowly move
east,'' concluded Graham.