"I don't think there is pressure
now for new commitments from
developing countries," said Kasem Snidvongs, permanent secretary of
the
Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment. "Developing countries
won't have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions immediately and
there will be no mentioning in the protocol of when they will have
to
begin doing so."
In return, however, it is
expected that Article 10 of the draft
protocol - which allows developing countries to make voluntary
commitments to the reduction of greenhouse gases - will be included
in
the final text. The G-77 and China had previously called for it to
be
deleted.
"We may have to go along
with Article 10," Kasem added. "But
there will be no time frame insisting on when we have to participate.
That will
depend on the decision of each country."
Kasem attributed the "toning
down" of conflict over the issue to the
statement made by Gore, who said he had instructed the US delegation
"to
show increased negotiating flexibility if a comprehensive plan can
be
put in place".
In a press conference held
last night, Gore hinted, without
elaborating, that a "version of Article 10" could play a crucial role
in
a compromise between developed and developing countries.
As for the definition of
meaningful participation, Gore said, "We'll
know it when we see it… and we hope the Senate knows it when it sees
it".
The US Senate has been the
main institution pushing for an
increased contribution from developing countries, but Gore was optimistic
that
even if some senators end up opposing ratification of a Kyoto Protocol,
there would be enough support for it to be passed.
Kasem also noted that progress
has been made in Kyoto because the
Japanese hosts are extremely eager to see the negotiations conclude
successfully.
The apparent decline in tensions
over the role of developing countries
has left the extent of cuts developed countries should should aim for
in
their emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) as the key unresolved issue
in the climate change talks.
There was speculation here
yesterday that a final target for GHG cuts
would be somewhere around the Japanese proposal of five per cent below
1990 levels by the year 2010. But agreement is not likely to be reached
until the conference winds down on Wednesday, and there are many other
related issues that need to be resolved simultaneously, such as whether
a carbon trading system should be set up and whether the effect of
creating carbon sinks should be included in the protocol.
Another outstanding issue
which will directly affect developing
countries such as Thailand is that of Joint Implementation (JI), a
programme which would allow developed countries to reduce GHG emissions
abroad in return for credits. Currently, the programme is in its pilot
phase, under which projects are called Activities Implemented Jointly
(AIJ) and no credits are handed out. Developing countries still maintain
that JI should not begin until after the pilot phase ends by the year
2000.
"Every developed country
like to have JI," said Kasem. "But we should
stick to AIJ for [the pilot phase]. After that we can evaluate it and
move on to JI if we feel that's appropriate."
Saksit Tridech, secretary-general
of the Office of Environmental Policy
and Planning, said that Thailand is in the process of arranging two
AIJ
with Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development
Organisation (NEDO). One project would involve improving energy
efficiency in Thailand's steel furnaces, and the other would be involve
the Kansai Electric Power Authority working with the Electricity
Generating Authority of Thailand to improve energy efficiency in its
power plants.
The US Department of Energy
is also keen to begin an AIJ project with
Thailand, Saksit said.
"It is too early for us to
agree to JI," Kasem added. "We would
like to see whether technology has really been transferred."
Asked whether large dams
would ever be included in a JI
programme, Kasem said he doubted it because they often destroy forests,
which
besides containing a lot of biodiversity also store carbon. Methane,
another greenhouse gas, is also emitted by decaying plant matter in
dam
reservoirs.
As for nuclear power plants
being promoted under JI, Kasem was again
skeptical but for different reasons.
"It's possible, but not feasible,
at least not for the next 10 to 15
years," he said. "There are still many questions about nuclear power's
safety, waste disposal and costs. As an economist, I still think it's
too expensive."
"Besides, people don't want
it, and as Thailand becomes more
democratic, no politician will go against the people's wishes," he
said.