A weather forecast map for the
region, produced by a joint team of
climatologists from the US and Asia,
shows that from Feb until April there
is a 50 per cent chance of
below-normal rainfall in Thailand,
Burma, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka, southern Laos and most of
Vietnam.
The chances of severe drought are
greatest in the Philippines, while
northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam,
western Sumatra, Yunnan and
southeastern China are all likely to
receive above-average rainfall.
The picture is more complicated in
Indonesia, but most of the
archipelago is likely to see its drought
continue, according to the
climatologists, who are in Bangkok
for a conference on ''El Nino Related
Crises in Asia'', hosted by the Asian
Disaster Preparedness Centre at AIT
and the US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The success of forecasting efforts for
El Nino, a global climatic
phenomenon marked by a rise in sea
surface temperatures in the eastern
Pacific Ocean, led conference
organisers to urge greater
collaboration between scientists,
policy-makers and administrations in
order to mitigate the impacts of future
climatic events.
As an example, NOAA's director for
international development James
Buizer pointed to northeastern Brazil,
where in 1987 an El Nino-inspired
drought wiped out roughly 85 per
cent of the poverty-stricken region's
grain crop. In 1992, similar conditions
re-emerged, but this time the
subsistence farmers were provided
with advanced warning, and
managed to take pro-active measures
which meant they only lost about 18
per cent of their crop.
Later, in 1994, northeastern Brazil
was hit by a La Nina event which
brought heavier than normal rains.
Armed again with advanced
knowledge, farmers managed to
nearly double their normal crop yield.
According to Nick Graham, a
researcher at the Scripps Institution
of Oceanography who was
instrumental in alerting the Brazilians
about these events, the current El
Nino event -- generally considered to
be the strongest this century -- is also
marked by ''unheard of'' temperature
anomalies in the Indian Ocean (and
to a lesser extent in the South China
Sea).
These conditions have led to
extremely heavy rainfall in East
Africa, in volumes as much as five
times above normal, causing a huge
amount of damage in the region.
Meanwhile, current forecasts for
Southeast Asia depend on how
quickly the surface water in the
eastern Pacific cools down, he said.
''We expect temperatures in the
Pacific to decline slowly, but we can't
say for sure so a forecast for longer
than three months is not possible.''
''Some models are predicting that the
El Nino will be replaced by much
colder conditions in the eastern
Pacific, which could lead to a La Nina
event,'' he added. ''But others are not,
so it's difficult right now to make a
prediction. We should know by
August.''
A La Nina event is essentially the
opposite of an El Nino. It is marked
by cold sea surface temperatures in
the eastern Pacific and brings heavy
rain to much of Southeast Asia. As
with El Nino, however, its impact is
stronger in countries such as
Indonesia and the Philippines than in
Thailand.
''It would be unusual for La Nina to
directly follow El Nino, but it has been
known to happen,'' said Graham.