Considering its size, the Salween must be one of the most mysterious rivers in the world. From its origins in Tibet, it flows for nearly 3,000 km through isolated provinces in China and Burma, barely skimming Thailand's border before it reaches the sea at Moulmein.
Most of the scanty scientific information we have about the Burmese portion of the Salween dates back more than 50 years to British colonial days. But now a group of engineers and consultants have recently begun studying the mighty river with the eventual aim of damming it.
There has long been talk of Burma tapping the Salween's hydroelectric potential, and then exporting the electricity to energy-hungry Thailand. The last time the issue popped up -- roughly five years ago -- there were rumours a 4,500-MW dam would be built at Wei Gyi, on the Thai-Burma border in Mae Hong Son province. The resultant reservoir could have extended up through Burma's Kayah State into Shan State, forcing the relocation of thousands of ethnic Karen, Karenni and Shan villagers.
Since then, the financial crisis had seemingly put the project on a distant back burner. Even if the funds were available to finance a large dam on the Salween, electricity consumption in Thailand has dropped so dramatically that supply now far exceeds demand.
So it came as quite a surprise last November when several NGOs based in the North learned that a team of Thai and Japanese consultants had entered Shan State at the Nong Ook border checkpoint in Chiang Mai province to survey a possible dam site on the Salween. It turns out that a feasibility study is indeed being conducted at a site located on the Salween roughly 10 km north of Ta Hsang, where a bridge is being built across the river. The study is being carried out by consultants from Thailand-based MDX Power through its subsidiary GMS Power, along with experts from a Japanese utility, the Electric Power Development Corporation (EPDC).
The question most observers are asking is why look at building a dam now? There was some speculation that since Thailand is currently facing a water crisis rather than an electricity shortage, the project would be used to divert water from the Salween into the Chao Phraya River basin. But according to a source at MDX, the project at Ta Hsang would be solely for hydro-electric power.
''While anything is possible,'' added an Egat official, ''the cost of pumping the water into Thailand would be incredibly expensive.''
Both sources explained that a Salween dam is a long-term project, one that will take at least a decade to complete, if it goes ahead at all. Thailand has signed a memorandum of understanding with Burma to import 1,500 MW of power by the year 2010, they noted, although a dam at Ta Hsang would probably generate more than 3,000 MW.
Some NGOs suspect the project may be a Japanese initiative, or is designed to get financing from the so-called Miyazawa Plan, which aims to invest US$30 billion in Southeast Asia to help kick-start the regional economy. But the MDX source denies seeking any money from the Miyazawa Plan, claiming his company is funding the feasibility study itself.
''Working with the EPDC might help bring in other Japanese partners, including eventually the Japanese government, but things have to improve in Burma to get that kind of financing,'' he explains. ''There is no special reason why this project should be in the news now. We signed the agreement [to do the feasibility study] with the Burmese government about a year ago.''
The Egat official added that the Japanese firm Marubeni is keen on developing hydropower facilities in Burma in much the same way that Korea's Daewoo has been active in building dams in Laos and Vietnam. Marubeni and Ital-Thai have almost completed a feasibility study for a dam on the Burmese portion of the Kok River near Chiang Rai.
Meanwhile, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), Burma's ruling military junta, is reportedly eager to see a dam built on the Salween at Hat Gyi, across the border from Tak province. The site is relatively close to Rangoon and Mandalay, and water from a reservoir there could also be diverted into Thailand.
But why build a dam at Ta Hsang, way up in Shan State? The MDX official explains that the site is ''technically promising'' -- a large volume of water flows through a narrow gorge -- and that it is a good location in terms of hooking up with the Thai electricity grid. ''The transmission lines wouldn't have to go through a national park,'' he says. ''There is also the issue of security,'' he adds. ''One advantage of this site is that it appears to be slightly more, um, sedate.''
But ''sedate'' is a relative concept in strife-torn Burma. The surveyors were reportedly escorted by heavily-armed Burmese government troops, who are currently carrying out their annual dry-season offensive against Shan and other ethnic minorities fighting for autonomy. The fighting, combined with SPDC relocation programmes, have reportedly displaced hundreds of thousands of people in Shan State, forcing many to flee into Thailand as refugees.
The SPDC also probably sees a dam on the Salween as a way to neutralise the Shan military opposition by cutting off support from Thailand. It is a strategy that worked well against the Mon, who were forced to sign a ceasefire agreement when the Yadana pipeline was built through their territory, government troops moved in to defend it, and Thai authorities -- who had hitherto allowed the Mon to move back and forth across the border -- warned them against sabotaging the project.
According to one report, MDX advisor Dr Subin Pinkayan, a former Democrat MP and government minister, has already contacted the Shan opposition through intermediaries and asked that they not interfere with the project. The Shan States Army has allowed the survey to go ahead but warned that actual construction might be opposed.
Tainted by their association with the narcotics trade, the Shan have often found it difficult to gain allies, but they might be able to team up with environmentalists in opposing a dam on the Salween. The MDX source says it would be a run-of-the-river project in order to minimise the social and environmental impacts, but he also admits that he doesn't know how many people it would dislocate, or how much forest it would destroy.
''That's what we aim to find out with the study,'' he says.
We do know that in China, the valley of the Salween -- or the Nu Jiang, as it is known there -- is incredibly abundant, home to several unique indigenous groups, along with tigers, leopards, bears, deer, giant hawks and rare pheasants. The Nu Jiang River Project claims that 314 different medicinal plants have been discovered there, along with hundreds of different orchids.
Who knows what wonders will be revealed along the Burmese portion of the river. The irony is that we may find out just in time to see it destroyed. -------
