It appears that the world
really will come to an end at the turn of the
millenium _ at least the computer world will, if steps aren't immediately
taken
to defuse what has become known as the ``Millenium Time Bomb'.
Three years and four days
from now, barring corrective measures, it's predicted
that about 90 per cent of the world's computer applications will fail,
throwing
into jeopardy all sorts of crucial activities they perform, from guiding
airplanes to carrying out automatic financial transactions, all because
of a
simple error with vast implications.
Also known as the Year 2000
Problem (or Y2K), it arises because software
designers decided a long time ago it wasn't necessary to put input
the first two
digits of the year when entering the date in the form of MM-DD-YY.
The only
problem is, billions of lines of code later, it turns out that it is
necessary
after all because _ surprise! _ this century isn't going to last forever.
Why do two inoccuous digits
matter so much? A review of the problem by analyst
John Westergaard can be found at http://www.westergaard.com:8080/y2k/y2kintro.html.
Basically, computers will read the date 01-01-00 as meaning Jan 1,
1900, which will
have enormous consequences for any date-dependent transactions. (It's
actually a
Century Time Bomb, rather than a millenial one, but who's counting?)
``The old will seem young.
A few moments will seem like an entire century.
Future events will have already occurred,' proclaims Duncan Connall
of Global
Software Inc.
The problem is already showing
up in strange places, Westergaard
reports: ``A 105-year-old Minneapolis woman born in 1891 allegedly
received notice to
report in September for kindergarten. The computers read `91' to mean
she's
five years old. Canned herring shipped from Norway to Brazil was returned
recently
because computers in Sao Paulo assumed that the shipment, labeled `Sell
Before
00-05', had been sitting in a warehouse for 100 years. A motorcycle
manufacturer
discovered it had a Y2K problem in January, 1995 when a computer programme
analysing its five-year warranty commitments suddenly took an hour
and a
half to run versus [the normal] 20 minutes.'
This is of course only the
tip of the iceberg. Westergaard advises us to
``think of the problem as a pervasive, malicious virus violating the
immune
system of computer systems for which there is a cure but it is very
costly and
has a finite deadline'.
This is what makes the Y2K
problem so unique. It is probably the only
technological disaster in history which can be precisely predicted.
``It will
sweep all around the world, one time zone at a time,' notes Ivan Smith,
a
physics teacher.
The only cure seems to be a tedious
and lengthy debugging of the software. The
Gartner Group estimates that 300-600 billion lines of code will have
to be
changed at a cost of about US$1 per line. That's serious bucks, folks,
which is
probably why most of the references to Y2K on the Net seem to come
from
computer consultants offering their services, for a fee.
Peter de Jager, an industry
analyst who was one of the first to sound the Y2K
alarm, predicts it will have a huge impact on the software services
market as
companies desperately seek out techies to debug their programmes. Check
out his website, which contains a wealth of information, including
an extensive
FAQ with answers to many of your questions, at
http://www.year2000.com.
De Jager points out, for
instance, that a lot of computer systems have been
running ``on autopilot' for decades. The original programmers may have
left the
company, or even died. Changes may have been made without proper
documentation.
If you don't believe that
the Y2K problem is for real, or that it will affect
you, well, you're not alone. In fact, the biggest obstacle to solving
the
problem is a lack of awareness, the experts say. Once companies become
aware, they usually go into denial. By the time they realize they have
millions
of dollars at stake, it may be too late to make the necessary changes,
which are very time-consuming.
``Y2K awareness is at the
level of Aids awareness circa 1982,'
warns Westergaard ominously. Many companies are procrastinating, hoping
a
quick fix will turn up. But there doesn't seem to be any ``magic bullet'
available, short of switching over to the Buddhist (or Islamic or Hebraic)
calendar,
which would give us an extra 57 years to work out the problem.
The US military seems gung-ho
on tackling the problem, but the
IRS (the US tax authorities) have apparently done little. PC users
using Windows 95 may
be in luck, as initial tests suggest it can handle the rollover into
the new century.
But anyone running a computer system, especially one with lives or
money
depending on it, had better start looking into their Y2K problem NOW.
You might also want to check that your bank is working on it, too.
There are plenty of websites
with ominous names such as ``Doomsday',
``Impending Doom', or ``The Change of Century Project' offering advice
and
services. A ``newsletter for millenial management' called Tick, Tick,
Tick has a
website at http://www.tickticktick.com.
T-shirts, watches and videotapes
can be purchased to raise
awareness. There is even a novel about Y2K already. The author is still
seeking a publisher,
and if the excerpt available at http://www.rollover.com/notsosecret
is any guide, he may have to wait for several centuries to find one.
Finally, you might want to
think very carefully about where you'll be on New
Year's Eve, 1999. Riding on an airplane, or even a subway, might not
be a good
idea. Things could get hairy. It should make what already promises
to be an
exciting event even moreso, in ways we never imagined.
In the meantime, have a Happy New Year.
Have any suggestions? Complaints? Picks? Pans? Utterly random
thoughts
you'd like to share? Please send e-mail to jfahn@nation.nationgroup.com