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Beyond Calculation
edited by Peter J. Denning and Robert M. Metcalf

Predicting the future is always a messy business; usually because those doing the predictions are either too conservative or too wild in their speculation or were unable to foresee the effects that trivial things can have.

So, what is one to make of Beyond Calculation (subtitled, "The Next Fifty Years of Computing,"") a book put together for the fiftieth anniversary of the Association of Computing Machinery (ACM)? This is a book containing essays by some of the experts in various fields of computing, to 'predict' what will happen in computing in the next fifty years. As most of the authors in the book admit, this is impossible. But even so, they give a good try and the results are some essays with interesting things to say.

The people contributing to this book are many and varied. People like Paul Abrahams, Vinton Cerf, Edsger Dijkstra, Richard Hamming and Gordon Bell, to name a few. Each are experts in many of the areas of computing so you'll get an overall view of what they think may happen in the future.

The book is divided into three sections with each section looking at different aspects of computing. The first part looks at the probable developments that may take place in the field of computing itself. The essays in the section deal with the increase in speed and memory of computers, the increasing ubiquity of processors in everything, leading to ideas like the BAN (body area network) where we'll wear processors to communicate with the rest of the world.

The second section deals with the effect computers will have on society in the next fifty years and this is a more interesting section to read. One fascinating essay in this section dealt with how children relate to computers and especially with the question of whether children consider a computer (or the 'software creatures' in a program) to be are alive or not. Having grown up at a time when wind-up or lego-type toys were the norm, the essay does give an interesting look into how children treat battery-driven or simulated-life toys of today. Other essays look into the question of how artificial intelligence should complement human intelligence and the idea that computers will do all our work for us.

The third section was the hardest for me to get through and deals with how computers will alter how businesses and organisations will run and survive in the next fifty years. Some deal with the idea of 'virtual organisations' (disparate geographical sections held together by computer mediated communications) and even 'virtual feudalism' (with knowledge instead of land being the vital item held by parties). Not being a really business minded person, it was harder for me to grasp some of the ideas being put forward here.

All in all, this book is a real mix. It is possible you won't enjoy all the essays inside (I didn't) as it depends a lot on your past experiences with computers. But even then, you will probably find a essay or two that will perk your interest.

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Beyond Calculation edited by Peter J. Denning and Robert M. Metcalf

Beyond Calculation
edited by Peter J. Denning and Robert M. Metcalf