Dr Jin on Share Investment |
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Regular Observation on Forex Trading |
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Always do your own research before making any decisions, particularly those on where to invest your hard-earned money. The writing on this site is for information only, not as financial advice to anybody. New sites for information and research (a must read web site if you are keen on doing well in your personal financial investments: Zealllc.com 13th November, 2005:Something major is imminent and I am hoping for a turn of foot for the other majors against the dollar. Having said that, my recent trading has shown improved performance with more consistency. I think that is the key to sustainable success. Still, I need a bit of major change of direction for me to turn into positive equity rather than positive balance only. Good luck. 15th October, 2005:Turned another leaf in my life since the last update. It seems that I am getting older and slightly wiser than my old self in this new year of my life. I have achieved two 500 pips weeks in the past 3 weeks, which is not bad at all. My target at the moment is to achieve 500 pips a week and then perhaps aim for more later on. My daily highest achievement so far is 263 pips. Now enough for that eulogoy for myself. Last Friday, we may have turned an important leaf in the currency market as well. The break of $1.2050 and $1.7580 for euro and sterling may be more significant than we thought for now. If I really stick my neck out, I would say it might just be the turning point for another bull run for the other majors against the dollars, all the way to the end of the year, with targets of $1.3500 and $1.8800 both possibilities for euro and sterling. However, the market always preys on people's perceptions, there are some who are predicting a horrendous fall for euro to reach $1.1200 as well. A failure to break $1.2200 this time would be a very worrying and warning signal for my bullish predictions. But, oh well, sometimes you have got to be stubborn for once in your life. I am game for this bullish scenario from now on. Good luck. 17th September, 2005:Happy Moon Festival tomorrow to you all. We are going to have FOMC next week. With the German election result out this Sunday night, I guess there is going to be quite a bit of excitement in the market, initially. For the coming week, a test of $1.2330 is vital to all the other majors against the dollar. If it does break it on Sunday night, it is less likely that Euro will fall through $1.2200 vital support this time, so there will be more upside from there, despite the possible initial hesitation before Tuesday. Sterling does look more bullish to me. If I stick my neck out, I'd say the likely weekly range for Euro may be $1.2360-$1.2200 and $1.8330 to $1.8050/00 for sterling. Good luck. 15th September, 2005: Had a good day, but finished with sour positioning, because of over greed. For today, the overnight fall was more than expected. I thought the fall may come on Friday, but it has come already. I think there may be another test of $1.8280 on the card, but don't know where it would come from, $1.8160/50 or $1.8100 or $1.8050/30. But I will be buying at these levels. If before 8am this morning, sterling has not fallen under $1.8160/50, then there is a good chance for it to reach somewhere near $1.8280 before mid-day. As long as it stays above $1.8000, sterling is still in a rising trend, I think. Good luck. 14th September, 2005: No more selling for now. Sterling and euro may have achieved this week's low for now. Today, sterling may go as high as just under $1.8400 and the overall corrective high may be just under $1.8430, which may happen next week and then it may fall to $1.8100 or $1.8000 next week. I will be buying on dips, but on this Friday, it may drop big again to test $1.8180/$1.8200 (When euro breaks down through $1.2250, all buys of other majors are off!!) Good luck. 13th September, 2005: The weekly trend is still downwards for sterling and euro. However, for today, there may be consolidation from yesterday's big falls, with possible range trading. For Euro, a test of $1.2350 may be on the card, before more testing of $1.2250 level support; for Sterling, a test of $1.8260/80 may be on the card, before more testing of $1.8200 level, and possibly breaking it to reach a weekly target of $1.8100 or $1.8000. There are a lot of data out of the US today, so the market may yoyo up and down. Good luck. 12th September, 2005: Euro looks increasingly bearish, with the support at $1.2330 broken over night. I think it is very likely that a test of bullish trend channel support at $1.2250/00 will be forthcoming this week. If this later very important support is broken, then the whole bullish trend is dead, we may be headed into a period of flat consolidation between $1.2100/0000 and $1.2500/?.2600. 10th September, 2005: General outlook: The other majors are in a bullish trend against the dollar. Euro has built up a bullish channel with 3 resistance and 3 support points already, which says that it is quite a strong trend. Having failed to break $1.2588 resistance, now it is likely to test either the moving average support at $1.2330 or trend support point at $1.2250, which seems to be more likely. But the market always gives you surprises. The next resistance may be close to $1.2660 and $1.2700 for euro. For sterling, its bullish trend is more fragile with only two supports and two resistance so far. Having failed to break higher of $1.8500, it is likely to test $1.8140 moving average support or trend support between $1.8000 and $1.8100. So all in all, next week should be quite interesting, with more pressure downwards for euro and sterling. Weekly outlook: Euro: 4-hour chart displays a bearish trending channel at an angle of -45 degrees, which is a strong trend. This indicates the following two possible weekly ranges: Bearish--$1.2565 to $1.2330 and Bullish--$1.2380 to $1.2660. For Sterling, 4 hour chart also displays a bearish trending channel at -15 degrees which is not a strong trend. This indicates two possible weekly scenarios: Bearish: $1.8410 to $1.8180/60; Bullish: $1.8380 to $1.8620/40. Good luck. 2nd September, 2005: my birth month again. For next week, 5th-9th September, if the euro is not over $1.2640, and the weekly range is less than 200 pips, then for the week of 12th-16th September, Euro will drop big. For sterling, next week’s possible range if $1.8290 and $1.8480. 30th July, 2005: Something is not quite right about my forex trading, namely it is becoming a bit monotonous, because I am applying the same pressure all the time, which must be wrong. There is no breakthrough for me at all. But it does feels like last year, the pressure is gradually building on the dollar. One day it will explode and all us bears will be happy again. For now, I think it will go up as long as it stays above $1.7500/$1.7460 max and it may top around $1.7700 for a few days, befor a big drop on Friday for the non-farm payroll number from the US and continue to drop big on Monday, to test $1.7270 again. It is going to feel rather scary, but I think that will be a quick jab down and then we would have seen the worst of the dollar bulls for this year, I hope. 26th July, 2005: Obviously, I am still suffering with the rest of dollar bear gang. But the point is that they have enjoyed the heyday for the past few years, I have not! It sucks to be on the wrong side all the time. 20th June, 2005: I am hoping that the market has entered a period of range trading. For sterling, the range is probably between $1.8000/$1.7900 and $1.8400/$1.8500. I should be aiming to buy low and sell high within this range, until it is broken. Good luck. 10th June, 2005:I think the end of the dollar rally is comign soon, in this month probably. However, before we get too carried away, there may be one more dip to $1.8080 and if that stands, then we will see a rally for the other majors in the coming months. Good luck. 29th May, 2005:Not doing so well lately. Made two serious mistakes, and suffered a set back. In the market, big mistakes are out of two reasons only, greed or fear. Mine was due to latter this time. Well, I am trying to recover. I have been reading up on forex books. It seems that I have not managed to transform from boom and bust trader to consistent winning trader. But I will surly try. For the coming weeks, I guess it is a test of the bottom line at $1.2500. If that breaks convincingly, then all dollar shorts are off. Funnily, a long while ago I wrote on my calendar that euro will bottom up on 7/8th June. I wish I had followed my own prediction. Good luck every one. 3rd May, 2005: Is this going to be the turning point for the bull rally titled Stagflation whereby we will see a collapse of dollar to the end of this year and beyond? Or are we in for more Market Operators' tactical folly to fool the players into believing that the dollar is going to enter a new bull trend? At least, Warrent Buffet is not fooled by such tactics and he is staying put on his dollar shorts. I think we should do the same by building up dollar shorts on current weakness in other majors. After the interest rate decision tonight from FOMC, there will be a long break, which may just give the dollar bears enough time to reverse and start the new trend. However, the new born trend will always be started tentatively. So you have to make up your mind about the mighty dollar and do your trading accordingly. Good luck. 23rd April, 2005: How's things? Not so good. It has been the same story yet again this year. I am just very keen to make a break and make a difference this year. As soon as I get my nead above the water, a wave or two come to knock me down. The waves are actually made by myself, mistakes, out of fear or greed. For the coming week, I reckon it is a make or break week for the dollar. If euro can be kept under $1.3120, then there is a good chance that the dollar can rally for another few weeks to a high of $1.2500 against the dollar. But if euro breaches $1.3120, it may try to reach the high of $1.3420 again, before deciding where to go next. So watch this week very carefully and good luck. 3rd April, 2005: I think the dollar is in a middle of a big rally towards $1.2500 or $1.2000 for euro/dollar. The upside may be limited to $1.3080 or $1.3120 or at most $1.3170 for euro/dollar. Sell high and buy with great care, as this dollar rally is still quite young. I think the April highs for the other majors will be achieved between 11th and 15th April. From then on, the dollar may rally to a minimum of $1.2600 before more consolidations. 14th March, 2005: Maybe, the dollar will rally from $1.3480 level for the euro to somewhere near $1.3200, or more, this week, after an initial hesitation on the top. Are we in for a trend reversal this week, or are we in for more dollar weakness? My bet is on the former. Good luck. 7th March, 2005:Are we in for a major rally of the other majors again or not, having defied the non-farm payroll again last Friday? I think we should continue to be more concerned with downside, rather than upside for the moment. I will still be selling the euro this week and keep on selling until it drops from its lofty levels ($1.3200 and above). We will see $1.2900's again in the not too distant future, I believe. So a trading range for this week may be between $1.3340 and $1.2940 for euro/dollar. Good luck.
13th March, 2004: It is such a volatile market, and surely there are lots of money to be made, unless you get on the wrong correlations with the market direction, which is such a likely event. Dollar will be weak for a day or two at least next week. This does not look like a month when euro or pound will reach new highs. So be safe on the selling side, and more cautious in buying other majors against the dollar. Good luck. 5th March, 2004: What a merry turn around for the dollar. I guess it just shows the real yankee character, happy go lucky and usually boasting self-optimism by the sky high. I still think there will be more volatile months ahead of us and the dollar weakness will persist. We have seen a low of 18157 for the pound and I do not expect to see this one to be breached in March. I guess we might try the highs of over 19000 in the coming weeks. It is a yoyo market in a big way and it is important to remember to place your positions right, selling over 19000 and buying only below 18400. Good luck. Still, really haven't got a hang of this game yet. I still reckon the pound will stay in the bullish mood until August 2004, to reach $2 as a target. Once satisfied, the downtrend could go as far as $1.6000. so lots of potential money to make yet. Good luck.
29th January, 2004: The tide is gradually changing in the favour of dollar bulls, I think. But we will only get in when the trend actually starts, not on our intuitive or technical predictions. Let the trend be your friend has certainly taken on a different meaning for me in the forex market. 22nd January, 2004:In action now. Nothing of great note to report yet. Now we are talking about 140 for Euro against the dollar. And look at the yen go. I think this one is a goner below 100 against the dollar one way or another. Always keep a coooooooool head. 18th January, 2004: Do I kick myself for missing such a big correction? Not really. It just shows my intuition was right, but my timing this time was wrong. There are many opportunities in the market. The important thing is get one right and profit from it in a big way. My mind is still clear about what I want to do in the forex market. I will be waiting for my chance. 13th January, 2004: The dealing account is set up and I am ready. The market is currently taking a breather. It would be interesting to see any pressure from a correction in the stock market would have on the forex market. I am sitting tight at the moment. 12th January, 2004: It is a fantastic market out there to be watched for now. At last, the European Bank is signaling some sort of alarm at the appreciation of Euro against the Dollar. Well, that only signals the very beginning of an interesting battle with speculators. Yes, I have been there and done it in 1995, when the Bank of Japan intervened so much to push Yen to the historical low of 80 against the dollar. We are in for an excellent ride. Watch on. 10th January, 2004: The pound is now at $1.8475 and Euro at $1.2816. Some may say these heights are quite alarmingly high. Yes, it is high, but not high enough yet for me to buy into the dollar. Technically, on the charts, there is no buying signal for me either. Psychologically, I still think there are many buyers of these currencies in the market today. The differential in the interest rates is really a key factor. Never say never, I am watching the situation with great expectation. Interesting times ahead of us. 8th January, 2004: I will making some regular observations on the forex trading from today. Trading foreign currencies with margin is of course a highly risky investment. You must make sure to invest only the money that you can afford to lose and still be able to sleep over it. There are a number of useful sites to study the forex market such as the following: Moneycorp Forex Markets If you find other useful sites for forex charts, prices and information, please let me know. |
Learning from the master-Warren Buffet--the most successful stock market investor ever!
a brief biographical story about Warren Buffet--if you want to make money out of the stock market, you must learn from the best!
George Soros--learn from yet another genius who beat the forex market by a great margin!
Read about the legendary Jesse Livermore.
the value investment approach--three strategies for value investment in shares!
Market and company news--read it first thing in the morning.
How to form share clubs? forming share clubs is a way to get started in investing in the stock market, for various reasons, e.g., lack of sufficient funds, lack of investment experience or the need to share resources in researching and making timely decisions, etc.
An example of a share investment club--you can email me to discuss setting up your share investment clubs.
London Stock Exchange--you can research into all the companies listed there.
Financial Times--keep you updated on financial news, particularly the global and national financial news. You need to keep a macro perspective as well for share investment. And charting there is good too.
Reuters--good old Reuters
Money World--a full list of daily biggest share losers and winners
Hemscott.com--a very useful site for researching into investment trusts.
yahoo finance--what sectors are hot or cold in the American market.
Digitallook.com--useful information on international stock markets.
Previous Observations which make entertaining reading as time goes on.
Learning about the financial market--Glossary of financial terms.
Read the latest discussions on individual shares.
Watch the ups and downs of every share--live.
deal4free.com Broker for forex trading and spreadbetting.
forex-newsletters.com--free daily and weekly financial information and analysis for shares and forex.
o The critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price.
o Never invest in a business you cannot understand.
o Risk can be greatly reduced by concentrating on only a few holdings.
o Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy, interest rates, or elections.
o Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.
o You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.
o Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.
o Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
o It is optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.
o As far as you are concerned, the stock market does not exist. Ignore it.
o The ability to say "no" is a tremendous advantage for an investor.
o Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.
o Lethargy, bordering on sloth should remain the cornerstone of an investment style.
o An investor should act as though he had a lifetime decision card with just twenty punches on it.
o Wild swings in share prices have more to do with the "lemming- like" behaviour of institutional investors than with the aggregate returns of the company they own.
o As a group, lemmings have a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad press.
o An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.
o "Turn-arounds" seldom turn.
o Is management rational?
o Is management candid with the shareholders?
o Does management resist the institutional imperative?
o Do not take yearly results too seriously. Instead, focus on four or five-year averages.
o Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share.
o Calculate "owner earnings" to get a true reflection of value.
o Look for companies with high profit margins.
o Growth and value investing are joined at the hip.
o The advice "you never go broke taking a profit" is foolish.
o It is more important to say "no" to an opportunity, than to say "yes".
o Always invest for the long term.
o Does the business have favourable long term prospects?
o It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.
o Remember that the stock market is manic-depressive.
o Buy a business, don't rent stocks.
o Does the business have a consistent operating history?
o Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing.
o An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.
Wenzhou Longhua Daily Electron Co., Ltd |
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An ISO9001 certified Chinese manufacturer of cable ties (cable tidies) and other plastic-hardware, such as nylon expansion anchors (fixings); cable clips; tie mounts, etc. You can order from Longhua's extensive product range, or have your order made to your specifications. Longhua can produce all quality injection plastic products at competitive prices, with a guarantee for customer satisfaction. Visit Longhua's web site or Email Longhua or Email me as We represent Longhua in the UK. |
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Welcome to Leeds Trinity and All Saints with lots of information on studying in Leeds and the City itself!
Neo-entrepreneurship-->environmental and social concerns (Updated 13th September 2000)
My PhD Thesis: Improving the Chinese Environmental Situation |
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This thesis stems from my long and intense interest in management, in particular, the management of the relation between business and other parts of the society. Neither can be isolated and their relation denied. Studying them implies taking into account of the fact that people's intentions, aims and goals are not only in the present. They link the present and the past to the future, in both predictable and unpredictable ways. This has led me to explore how the notion of system structures research as well as management methodologies. An important somehow spin-off effect of this study and of the topic chosen is that I have learnt a great deal about the environmental situation in my own country, China. |
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