These notes are part of an essay on an alternate history in which the American War of Independence never happened. In particular, this section presents a possible timeline the alternate world might follow. Further alternate history material can be found on my web page.
| 1750s | Seven Years' War ("French and Indian War") begins. Prussia defends itself, brilliantly, against most of Europe. British forces with American assistance eject France from Quebec. | |
| 1760s | Seven Years' war ends with Russian withdrawal from the anti-Prussian coalition. Friction between Britain and American colonists due to taxes for repayment of Seven Years War. Financial problems in the East India company are resolved by able administrators. | |
| 1770s | "Boston compromise": Each North American colony, including Upper Canada and Quebec, will receive a single seat in the parliament at Westminster, and be known as a province (though several choose to style themselves as something else: commonwealths, dominions or colonies). Members of parliament are to be elected by the people of the province, but franchise is to be determined by the local constitution: in general this means property-owning classes, and in Quebec it is further restricted to the tiny Anglophone community. Local assemblies recognise the supremacy of Westminster and the right of Westminster to raise revenue. Westminster grants a moratorium on taxation and promises not to tax at a greater rate in America than in any part of Britain ("most favoured region" clause). Prussia, Russia and Austria begin to dismantle Poland. | |
| 1780s | British financial problems gradually recede. The industrial revolution is beginning in North England and lowland Scotland. | |
| 1790s | Two wars between Britain (including America), Prussia and Holland on the one hand and France and Spain on the other. In the first, Prussia and Holland are defeated and devastated, and Britain forced to make peace on the basis of status quo ante in America after a defeat and a draw in the channel. The second war expands to include Austria, Piedmont and Portugal. Eventually France collapses into bankruptcy and chaos, and the Bourbons flee to Spain. Britain takes everything French and Spanish it wants in the West Indies. American troops capture Florida. Prussia and Austria claim territories in Flanders and Alsace that are within France's natural boundaries. | |
| 1800s | The new French republic defeats Austria and Prussia and reasserts control of Alsace and the Flanders March. Austria still dominates Germany. Britain remains neutral in this war, but does provide some economic assistance to Prussia. Poland's extinction becomes definite. | |
| 1810s | Overriding the objections of the southern American counties, parliament abolishes the slave trade. The French republic has become repressive. | |
| 1820s | A rebellion in Virginia and Maryland is suppressed, mostly by Empire loyalists from New England. Britain recognises that America has grown too strong to be kept subjected, and reforms parliament. Many rotten boroughs are extinguished, the franchise is extended to cover more people who don't own property and seats are handed out to new cities (American and British) on the basis of population. | |
| 1830s | The second phase of the industrial revolution becomes important in Britain, America, Northern Germany and Holland. Railroads, chemicals, steel-making are crucial new industries. The Republic of France initiates a five year plan to catch up with the "anti-democratic monarchical" states. Gold is discovered in Georgia colony, on the lands of the Cherokee Indians. Massive immigration floods the region with whites, and the Cherokee become a minority in their own home. Within a few generations they will be completely assimilated. | |
| 1840s | Large scale disturbances throughout Europe, with protests leading to rebellion. France defeats Austria in Italy, creating the Republic of North Italy. Republicanism, fanned by France, is brutally suppressed in Eastern Europe. In Ireland a famine (caused by potato blight) ignites a mass republican revolt. The catholic church fails to support the revolt (through fear of republican victory) and an Irish tradition of republicanism and anti-clericalism is established. The revolt is put down by Britain. The British anti-French policy is re-energised. |
The morals of all this are becoming clear.
AT the moment this timeline more or less satisfies Pteranodon's rules for writing plausible alternate histories. Unfortunately it suffers from the standard problem of any such timeline: the number of possible future plausible alternate histories is immense, and we have almost no guidance in selecting from amongst them.
The most practical way to satisfy Pteranodon and my need for restriction is to fudge up a point of divergence where Europe isn't immediately affected. That means replicating the course of the Napoleonic wars, which is a nightmare. It won't be all that believable, but it may be workable.
The alternative is to choose the timeline that is in some sense analogous to the one we followed, as though all the "random" fluctuations came out as they did historically. This breaks all of Pteranodon's rules, but at least gives us specificity and a sense for the effect of the change in isolation. I'll try that approach next.
| Continue with a second, less principled attempt at a timeline | Back to the "No American War of Independence" page |
I welcome feedback at David.Bofinger@dsto.defenceSpamProofing.gov.au.