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Pakistan and Politics

by ikram ul haq

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A FOREIGN POLICY WITHOUT DIRECTION

MAHTAB ABBASI( A new ZARDARI IN THE MAKING)

CRICKET OR FARCE

FORMER GIRLFRIENDS, AHMADI CERTIFICATION, INSANITY, dissenting beaurocrats and economic teams

THE REFERENCE INTERCHANGE, RATINGS, losing faith inourselves, AND THE KASHMIR IRRITANT

PAKISTANS NELSON MANDELA AND THE DUMB PRIME MINISTER

A FOREIGN POLICY WITHOUT DIRECTION --21.1.1998

This is a based on an article in The NEWS by Dr. Maliha Lodhi . The News is generally pro Nawaz Sharif .
Pakistans foreign policy is like a rudderless ship caught in a raging storm in uncharted waters.It has yet to achieve a clarity and coherence to deal with the post cold war era and globalisation. It is sporadic,adhoc and unfocussed, lacking a strategic vision.Rhetoric substitutes policy.Long on nostalgia and short on substance. Obsolete paradigms have yet to be replaced by global realities that provide the means to pursue the countries vital interests.Efforts to adjust policies have been stymied by political instability and episodic attention by the countries leaders.Policy formation is a cordinated process which causes fragmentation in the decision making process and poor implementation. Pakistan they say has been marginilized in the global arena. Some of the emerging problem areas are:

Loss of the a special USA relationship . Military sanctions still in place. Growing Indo-US ties. Problems in the security/nuclear sphere.
Deteriorating situation in occupied Kashmir. Pakistans inability to convert kashmiri support into a political advantage and solution.
Growing arms disadvantage with India especially with regards to the airforce, missiles, local armament development and nuclear devices.
Continued Indo Russian military cooperation. Russia still being misled by India .
China also not as close as in the sixties. Negative effects of Sino-Indian normalisation.
Prolonged turmoil in Afghanistan blocking relations with CARs
Pakistans closeness to Taliban raising hackles in Iran and CARs
Problems of CARs with other regional states especially vis a vis the CAR oil and gas wealth
Emerging Sino Russian relationship especially with regards to opposition to islamic movements.
Indian hegemonic intentions initiated in the guise of SAF and SAARC and defacto acceptance

Core Objectives

Economic revival, preservation of a strategic capability to deter external aggression, a regional environment and a global vision. That entails managing relations with China, managing tensions with India, moving towards a solution on Kashmir,stabilising and recrafting relations with the USA, Stablising ties with Iran with the proviso that they stop interfering in matters Pakistani, moving Afghanistan towards stability ,improving ties with CARS and Russia.and obviously dealing with other matters that keep arising.

Maintenance of a close strategic relationship with China should be important to pakistan as it might be the only friend left onits side in a war with india with the west and russia on indias side. . China now that it is opening to the west , india and russia does not need the old type of relationship dictated by communist doctrine.Chinas warmth with India and somewhat lacklustre support on key issues is obviously worrisome. Pakistan is a tiny country vis a vis trade and traditional imports from China are losing in pakistans market. Obviously China would prefer to have access to the indian market as well as the west. We could go for greater military purchases from china. Then there are problems in chinas muslim dominated areas.
Dealing with India has always been the biggest problem for pakistans foreign policy planners. The central issue of kashmir has yet tobe resolved. Talks have been continuing intermittently for almost two decades.The issue is that we are opposed to each other on allmost all matters. Talks only serve as a vehicle of tension mangement rather than problem solving as India is reknowned for its intransigence. If india refuses to move on kashmir than other options will have to be explored. Trade will obviously have to take a back seat until the essential issues are resolved.
Since the mid eighties there has been a sort of breakdown in relations with the USA . American policy has since been uneven in military, economic and nuclear arenas. There have been small areas of cooperation which have been hindered by acts of terrorism and distrust. Pakistan however continues to make efforts to maintain friendly relations with the USA unlike iran . The USA however continues to treat us as a friend in some matters and as foe in others due particularly to the convoluted nature of american politics and its habit of turning instantly from friend to brute enforcer. However future relations depend on expanding commercial and economic ties and encouraging private investment flows. The assumption that the USA will stump for pakistan in regional matters has obviously been proved wrong several times and attempts at having the US force movement on kashmir have failed as the USA only tends to twist our arm rather than indias. Anyway given our dependence on the USA we continue to hope that one day the USA will stand up as our friend even in difficult times and that is what our usa policy is generally based on. In essence there is no substance to our relations with USA.
Pakistan has a strategic and religious compulsion to maintain friendly ties with Iran which is a complex and difficult neighbour.Relations have been exacerbated over afghanistan and sectarian tensions. The unjudicious statements coming out of iran especially on pakistans internal matters show that iran is not very friendly or understnsding. Irans central asian ambitions and historical closeness to the CARs creates a climate of regional competition in the area.Assertive iran has managed to improve relations with russia and china and even got armaments and nuclear help. If it were left to Khatami their relations with the USA would improve too but the iranians dependence on anti american rhetoric for domestic support put paid to that. Iran has failed in improving relations with Gulf Arab states but is doing well with countries that are emerging as relatively independent of the USA. Irans relations with the west remain hostile despite a moderate approach by european nations. Pakistan at the govt level has a good relationship with iran and they talk about all issues despite having different perspectives. The USA too would prefer to have better ties with Iran as they are internally more solid vis avis pakistan. Given the current nature of the iranian govt we cannot expect a better form of relations.
Multiple often conflicting policies pursued in afghanistan have left pakistan with a greater influence on afghanistan but confronted with a sharpening arc of antagonism from countries and groups whose influence has diminished. Pakistan supports the Taliban as the de facto regime in afghanistan which has been largely successful in maintaing peace in areas under its control but has failed in dominating some regions in the north both diplomatically or militarily. Pakistan is now moving towards a negotiated settlement in afghanistan as there is a stalemate in the internal war. Iran, the CARs and Russia have been supporting the anti taliban groups. Maliha who seems anti taliban suggests a broad review of pakistans afghan policy to accommodate anti Taliban groups which pakistan is not in a position to enforce. One would suggest that the northern groups negotiate with the taliban on a form of govt. Previous attempts at a coalition have not survived as whoever gets the presidency starts to dictate while other groups start to militate against obviously not with words. While several groups many of them pro pakistan have been eliminated in the afghan war the ground situation at the moment is a northern state dominated by the Tajiks and the rest 2/3 ruled by the hardline islamist taliban. At the moment there does not seem tobe a possible solution.

Pakistans foreign policy planners should chart a new course which requires mobilisation of intellectual resources to undertake rethinking and review in a rapidly changing world that defies characterisation. To setdown clear goals and identify resources and people to be deployed.Debate on policy objectives to arrive at a national consensus.

Comments on maliha lodhis views

Maliha Lodhi seems pro iranian and anti taliban in orientation. She seems to revel in iranian confrontation with the usa. While iranian policy is independent it is not really logical as they create conflicts to keep domestic issues subdued. It is Iran which prefers isolation to interaction.She has not even mentioned the prime base of pakistans foreign policy ie friendship and orientation with the Islamic world. She also forgets Asia, Middle East, Arab world, Africa, Europe and Latin America. She thinks that the Taliban are Pakistan controlled which does not seem factual. She also forgets that our lack of internal resources and huge debt causes us to lose control of some of our foreign policy goals. Anyway we are at the moment striving to be part of several regional and world groupings which effects our foreign policy enormously and causes it too fragment. The country will have to be either totally peace oriented or it must define what are the issues on which it can either goto war or support others in a conflict situation. Often situations arise which conflict with foreign policy goals but which need immediate definition. In such situations the countries parliament must debate and form policies immediately as otherwise the govt becomes hampered by lack of national support. I agree with her that we must move away from rhetoric but intellectuals, ideologicians and communist era thinkers must be kept away from policy reorientation as they start to create new rhetoric once the old rhetoric is laid to rest. The govt too should be able to reflect their thought process and prove that its foreign policy is based on rational logical thinking in line with the countries interests.
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MAHTAB ABBASI( A new ZARDARI IN THE MAKING)--20.1.1998

This is a condensation of an article in The Frontier Post about a protest against the the NWFP chief minister. According to the protestors who are former allies of the Chief Minister he is causing problems in the BOI estate by landgrabbing and acting as a roughneck and dictator.They say that in 1985 on debut in politics Mehtab could not afford even petrol for his second hand suzuki pickup. The declared assets of Mehtab were Rs 80000 ($2000) at the time. Since than Mehtab has purchased 45canals of commercial land for Rs 1.7million in Dahangri(Mansehra). He also purchased another 80 kanals for Rs20 million in Abbottabad. He also purchased a plot in Murree and built a hotel onit. They also question how he purchased two huge bungalows in F-10, a posh area of Islamabad. He has reportedly built a palace in Mirpur(Abottabad) on which he has spent around 20 million. The wood required in the palace has apparently been smuggled from the forests of Dir and Hazara obviously in connivance with the govts forest deptt. He reportedly also got approved a water supply scheme for village Maira near his palace. The protestors allege that Mehtab is also the main shareholder in the Hotel Karakoram in Mansehra. They further allege that the Chief Minister has ordered the civil administration to harass his opponents who are apparently all relatives of some Sultan of BOI. The family of the frontier chief minister are cloth retailers in Rawalpindi for the last several decades and Sardars in their native Hazara.On attaining high office pakistani politicians tend to make lots of money.

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CRICKET OR FARCE-20.1.1998

The Independence Cup cricket final turned out to be a total farce . With India playing its most innocuos bowling attack and dropping catches which seemed to be deliberate at best pakistan racked up an imposing 314. What was to follow was even more unbelievable with pakistan dropping catches, missing stumpings even more deliberately and allowing India to win. The best of pakistani fielders such as Ijaz ahmad dropped a sitter. Aamer Sohail took three attempts to field a ball. The pakistani captain and wicketkeeper was dropping catches and missing stumpings thruout. His field settings were awful . To top it all the pakistani coach Haroon Rashid states that Rashids capataincy was immaculate? If as a captain u cannot defend 315 with any sort of bowling attack than one can only conclude that u donot know anything about captaincy or handling field settings or motivating a team. To top it all the ball went to rookie Youhanna four times in the field and he missed a wicket on each one of them. Once he dropped a sitter and twice his wayward throws missed runouts. The ICC should take serious note of such rigged matches and fine and suspend at least the captains or the concerned boards .

The pakistani selectors and board chief Majid Khan need a comeuppance. They have to take care of and live with the problems of pakistani crickets stars such as Salim Malik, Waseem Akram, Waqar Younis, and Moeen Khan. If the selectors still cannot decide on whether to pick Moeen or Rashid as a wicketkeeper for the team than they too should be sent packing. The captain should come from the teams senior players and he should be given full authority to deal with the players creating problems or not playing at their best. The teams keeper should be Moeen Khan and his deputy should be either Waseem Yousafi or one of the countries up and coming keepers. Rashid Latif is pretty ordinary as a wicketkeeper and his batting talents are even worse. Haroon Raschid too seems to have little to offer as a coach and some person with real coaching talent needs tobe given the job.

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FORMER GIRLFRIENDS, AHMADI CERTIFICATION, INSANITY, dissenting beaurocrats and economic teams--17.1.1998

A Team: Sartaj Aziz, Hafeez Pasha, Moeen Afzal, Mohammed Yaqub(Restructuring, Prices, Downsizing , Devaluations, Budget and Planning)
B Team: Shaukat Tareen, MianSoomru, Zubyr Soomru, Moeenuddin Khan( TAXES, International Finance and Banking AND PROVIDING FAKE BANK DOCUMENTS TO HOOK ZARDARI)
C Team: Ishaq Dar (economic issues relating to the Nawaz family and traders/industrialists)
D Team: Saifur Rehman, Khawaja Asif (Accountability and Privatisation and Knocking out any opposition)
E Team: Humayun Akhter(Overseas Investment)
People Trying To Climb On: Mahbub Ul Haq, Akmal Hussein

Suggestion: The prime minister should also have an economic team which looks at aspects affecting the common man which is sadly missing from the countries economic outlook.

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PAKISTANS NELSON MANDELA AND THE DUMB PRIME MINISTER>--15.1.1998

PAKISTANS NELSON MANDELA

Apparently Benazir Bhutto pakistans former prime minister wants to become a Nelson Mandela type figure. The respect and stature earned by Nelson Mandela is because of a life long commitment to human rights. He spent most of his adult life in south african prisons where he even repaired his own clothes and lived humbly. After coming out of prison he evolved an agreement with the former apartheid govt to end white rule and begin an era of coexistence. He has shifted power to his deputy while still in power and has been instrumental in resolving some african conflicts as well. Meaning that he has earned a right to be looked upto.Nelson also has been the longest serving political prisoner with around 26 years spent in jail. benazir would have to spend another 20 years in jail to rival that. While Benazir has fought against military rule /dictatorship and her family has suffered the terrible consequences, she has not attained universal respect from her countrymen. The recent campaign by her opponents showing her to be a money mongerer has also tarnished her image. Life in pakistani jails for the pakistans elite is also very comfortable with them being allowed to wear their own clothes and eat food brought from home. If pakistans star prisoners were treated like ordinary prisoners there would be very few political prisoners. The pakistani govt needs to work on equality in jails too. In the overall view she has not been able to shed the image of a rich pampered and perhaps overfed elitist. She has forever remained the princess rather than the humble leader and the image of her family which has continued to live by the standards of the pakistani rich has caused her great harm . Her biggest failure has been (unlike Nelson) the inability to get rid of her Winnie(the tarnished Asif Zardari). This is not to say that the campaign of her opponents to tarnish her and Asifs image is totally true. Unfortunately like other rich people in the country she too has taken to minting money which is the only way to stay rich and obviously keep others poor. Maybe she can attain the Nelson level of respect by the time she is 70 or 80 but now she is still too young and wealthy to be revered. Wealth has an unhealthy way of lessening ones achievements in life. Or maybe oneday like Ted Turner she will donate $100million(such attitudes cause heart attacks amongst pakistans wealthy elite) for UN humanitarian activities ie if she actually does have a few billions and it is not in the end confiscated .Ijazulhaq another son of a dictator suggests that Benazir will end up as a Mobutu or Marcos rather than a Nelson Mandela. The Pakistani rich are very poor when it comes to charity for the sake of charity and aiding humanitarian activities with their own money. Even Nawaz Sharif whose family owns an industrial empire is referred to as poor by some of his followers.

A DUMB PRIME MINISTER

Nawaz Sharif seems pretty dumb when it comes to negotiating with india and Gujral. Gujral had him fooled totally and they were under the impression that kashmir was going tobe handed over to them. However over a year later the initial euphoria has ended and the negotiations begun with such fanfare have petered out into nothing. Now that india is onits way to kicking out Gujral he is again suggesting a renewal of negotiations . Does'nt he realize that Gujral wont be around in a couple of months and that he might have to negotiate with a hardline hindu regime in the days to come which has even suggested that pakistan rejoin india . In such situations foreign affair handlers usually put things on hold. There is not much support for inane, endless and pointless negotiations which donot solve the core issue of kashmir to pakistans satisfaction. I just hope he doesn't waste 10 million of our money on Gujrals election campaign.

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THE REFERENCE INTERCHANGE, RATINGS, losing faith inourselves, AND THE KASHMIR IRRITANT>--17.1.1998

Two international agencies have slightly downgraded pakistan as a credit risk. They have sighted an increase in foreign loans as a reason even though pakistans foreign loans are much less than countries such as Indonesia and South Korea. While the IMF balked at providing pakistan even a few billion to tide over money supply problems it is arranging loans in the region of 50-60 billion for South Korea and Indonesia. One notices that the USA is willing to push for countries like Indonesia and South Korea but not for Pakistan. Maybe the IMF has a different set of rules and parameters for each and every country based on the pleasure of the USA.

The PPP has filed several references against Nawaz Sharif and Saif ur Rehman. Nawaz supposedly owns a Holiday Inn hotel in the USA which he has not reported in his declaration and is supposed to be doing hanky panky as usual in the import of wheat from the USA. Previously the hanky panky in wheat deals was supposedly being done by Abida Hussein.Saif ur Rehman has apparently shutdown his Redco business as it was unsuccesful(importing BMW's, manufacturing paving tiles and transporting mixed concrete) and has supposedly also defaulted on a huge textile mill loan. Earlier Nawaz had filed several references against Benazir, Zardari and several confidantes. Two of those cited by the Nawaz govt earlier as corrupt ie Admiral(retd) Mansurul Haq and Salman Farooki have apparently been letoff.

Nawaz Sharifs useless initiative on kashmir

Nawaz has agreed to restart useless secretary level talks on Kashmir.The Indians say that their views won't change with a change of govt. There would have tobe a substantive change in indian attitudes for a result to be achieved. Negotiations on the issue of kashmir have upto now been meaningless given indian intransigence on the issue. The jang has meanwhile highlighted a news that the americans are going to urge pakistan to increase confidence building measures which have upto now yielded little apart from smiles and handshakes. The present indian prime minister states that all irritant problems with pakistan will be solved thru negotiations. It is not the irritants that need to be talked about but the real problems. Unless the indians realize that there can be no real achievement.

The jang has also stated that bangladesh has been offered powerstations at 2.7 cents per kwh while the same organizations have setup plants in pakistan at 6-7 cents. One wonders why pakistan tolerates such exorbitant overcharging. Such contracts should be terminated on the basis of gross disinformation, fraud , kickbacks and corrupt practices.

Nawaz Sharif has apparently also agreed to acquire around 900-2000 families(Biharis) from bangladesh tobe settled somewhere in the Punjab.

While Nawaz Sharif continues to give whereever he goes he does not seem to get anything in return either in the form of an increased friendship or any useful economic gain.

President Tarrar has apparently like other PMLn walas got an appointment for his son as a Commercial Counsellor in the UAE embassy. However it has been clarified that this nepotism was committed prior to becoming president.

WE DO NOT BELIEVE IN OURSELVES

The army will conduct the next census as nobody believes that the beauorocracy can conduct it honestly. Sindhis and Mohajirs are poised to attempt to inflate their numbers. This census has been delayed by 8 years. One should do away with the practice as it serves no real purpose anymore.The general sense is that the population has jumped substantially but no major demographic shifts are expected even though punjab and karachi claim that they are flooded with people from other regions and Nwfp and balochistan that Afghans are inflating their populations.

KWSB ALSO BEING SOLD

In line with PMLn policy to sell all utilities to foreigners Pakistan is set to hire a foreign organisation to run the Karachi Water and Sewage Board. Karachiites had better be prepared to pay thru their noses for their water and sewage as foreign organizations do not come cheap.

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