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SECTARIANISM, ETHNIC INFIGHTING AND GOVT INDIFFERENCE
RAPE, MQM WHINING, PPP-ANP, PPP-PAGARO
BOMB BLASTS , CEMENT /ELECTRICITY PRICE HIKES
NAWAZ ACTUAL FORCE BEHIND PUKHTUNKHWA MOVE
THE PPP ASSESSMENT OF NAWAZ SHARIFs FIRST YEAR
In what can only be said tobe conflicts created and abetted by govt indifference two major eruptions took place at opposite ends of the country. In Hangu near the tribal areas two villages went at each other with rocket launchers and automatic weapons over sectarian differences killing over twenty people. The govt agencies were unable to control the fighting spread over several days and the armed forces had tobe called in as usual. The only solution to such sectarian conflicts is the banning of all open air sectarian events whether sunni or shiite. Non of the shiite or sunni rites that cause the problems have any religiuos sanction and are self created by various groups and people over the centuries. Since tolerance of rites which have no religious validity is low such eruptions keep occurring. With the present govt which has a soft corner for militant shiites the militant sunnis have no reason left for backing off . The govt since the days of the martial law has been depending on so called ulema who have been unable to bridge the gaps between the various sectarian groups. In response to the fighting the federal interior minister has asked the provincial govt to clear the tribal areas of weapon bazaars and arms manufacturing shops. However if past events are any help such verbal solutions which lack real action will not stop such events from reoccurring.
After the govt had distributed millions to the MQMa and released some of their most dangerous and criminally involved individuals karachi fell back into several days of intra ethnic mayhem. These events occurred just a few days after the meeting of Saif Ur Rehman (a very controversial and supposing bribe oriented PMLn interventionist) the Sind Chief Minister and the MQMa. In the meeting Saif agreed to help out the MQMa by not only postponing local body polls but also clearing some nogo areas for them. The resultant actions caused the loss od over 20 lives as ostensibly MQMa gangsters killed MQMh workers at will. The PMLn which seems to be still learning politics are now considering ending their controversial agreement with the MQMa. The result of ending PPP policies which had suppressed karachi violence to a large extent seem tobe pretty negative upto now.
Such violence has occurred in the backdrop of iranian and indian terrorist infiltration reports.
The govt view seems tobe that pakistan like the rest of the world is a very violent place and the best position is to say that the prime minister is as usual out of the country and had nothing todo with it all.
The controversial Saif also attempted to take on the army while the COAS was on tour in the USA. He tried to get the head of the ANF(anti narcotics force) to implicate Asif Zardari in some heroin smuggling. But the upright major general heading the ANF refused and was replaced by a civilian. However on his return the COAS refused to have army officers being ordered around by a civilian and the govt meekly reinstated the major general. The major general if one goes by name (there are many similarly named people in the armed forces therefore distinguishing between officers is pretty difficult) was also one of the few who handled the karachi ethnic violence at its worst in a appreciable manner as head of the Sind Rangers.
In other politics the law minister again disparaged the judiciary and ordered it to shape up or else. He also said that he would have used the police to drag the previous CJ to face contempt of parliament proceedings. Apparently he also suggested that there is one law for nawaz sharif and another for the rest. That has resulted in a contempt case being filed against the law minister. The former CJ who is pretty combative himself retaliated by saying he would have dealt with that too and that Nawaz Sharif had begged him to end contempt cases against him and fallen to his feet. Nawaz Sharif apparently also offered the former CJ several prominent jobs if he left the SC and squashed the cases against him. However the CJ remained adamant and was removed in a judicial coup by other pro Nawaz judges of the SC. It seems that the law minister does not seem tobe satisfied as he has lost prominence since the judicial crisis and wants tobe propagated by the press by obviously sleazy methods.
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The Nwfp is abuzz with the rape of a young teenage girl who had wondered into the provincial home deptt where several govt officials raped her and later threw her onto the street in a dazed state. The police picked her up and had her medically examined . She was forcibly released from detention by women groups and a jamat islami youth group(supporting the chief minister) who raided the hospital and handed her over to an irate father. Tensions rose when it was alleged that an assembly member and the son of the chief minister were involved. Only after that did the govt arrest the officials involved.
Before that it was alleged that the police and govt doctors were forcing the young girl to change her story.
The MQM which is in coalition with the PMLn at the center and in Sind is at it again. They are now up in arms over the killing of an mqm supporter and are threatening to part ways with a govt which was accepting whatever they were saying without question. Tit for Tat killings have escalated in karachi between rival ethnic groups over the last year. Before that they were growling at the MQMh no go areas where MQMa walas are not allowed. It is also alleged that the govt had stopped compensation payments to those affected by police victimisation. Apparently the security agencies have succeeded in convincing the govt that all those killed in the karachi operation were hardened criminals with very long criminal records.
The PPP it seems is arranging rainbow coalitions in case the PMLn govts in Sind and NWFP collapse. While the PPP expects its Aftab Sherpao to form a govt with the support of ANP and independents in Nwfp the situation on the ground is that they have only 40 supporters to the PMLn 's 43. They are however working on a group of six independents who are apparently not partial to working with the ANP.
In the Sind it is said that PPP is working on a coalition with independents and Pagaro supporters whom they have offered the chief ministry and as many ministers that they desire. Earlier the PPP had attempted to form coalitions not only with the MQMa but also with the PMLn. The PPP would need the support of at least 16 members to form a govt. The PMLn in that case is expected to promulgate governors rule by replacing the MQMa governor.
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In actions which are reminiscent of the countries political history the tattered opposition has formed the Pakistani Awami Ittehad to force the removal of the anti people Nawaz Sharif govt . The Ittehad at present has not been joined by the ANP or the MQM which have been partners in former govt breaker coalitions as they have yet to determine their attitudes.
This comes in the wake of several govt crisis , the ANP-PMLn breakup and literally a spate of killer bomb blasts in the punjab. The bomb blasts which have occurred in lahore , sukkur and gujranwala have caused loss of life and a severe decline in the supposed capabilities of the Nawaz Sharif clique. There is also the possibility of a PMLn-MQM breakup although it is generally thought difficult as the MQM is now becoming used to power and is losing the tendency to jump ship which is a common streak amongst ethnic groups having an unbalanced thought process. The bomb blasts are being blamed on indian intelligence groups but also could be the result of the instability in indian politics. However the countries internal politics coupled with intra ethnic and intra regional wranglings could also be the cause of such bomb blasts as well as the instability amongst the countries minor terrorist and sectarian groupings.
The countries Sartaj/Statebank/IMF/WB run economy has failed to improve the situation during the past year. Despite privatization, devaluations, slowdown in development no change is seen in any major sector. The country is now in the hands of a handful of industrialists( local and foreign ) but without any change in the problems being faced by the people. The failure of the sartaj/nawaz/imf/wb economics is seen in two recent events . The prices of cement escalated by around RS 50 and the govt announced an electricity price hike of around 20-35%. The hike focussed on increasing electricity prices for the lower to middle income groups and providing subsidies to industrial and commercial users. This is another climbdown by Nawaz Sharif who had said that electricity prices would not be raised. The problems in the electricity sector are due to privatization, high rates agreed to with independent power producers, forcible purchase of expensive power from the private power producers and a general lack of understanding of issues by the countries political and business leaders. The sharp decline in petroleum prices in the world market should in theory have caused electricity production to become cheaper but that does not seem tobe the case in pakistan. One also does not see any other country raising electricity prices . Wapda/KESC the countries two major electricity producers/distributors have for years been the targetted focus of privatization/corruption theorists which hav caused them to sort of exist in limbo for over twenty years. The govt has yet to decide how to carry out their privatization. Given present estimates privatization will further increase production costs with the present type of economic planners (pakistan has had almost a similar thinking group of economy planners since the mid 60's). Prices could shootup by over a 100% over the next five years. Pakistans Economic planners have a long history of fighting the underprivileged and giving handouts to the privileged.
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As the ANP moves out of the coalition with the PMLn Mehtab seems to hav found a willing group of independents to support his govt in NWFP. It seems that the independents,PPP and ANP are all averse to new provincial elections.
Wali Khan continues to rave and rant against history and now suggests that the 1947 referendum was rigged. According to the records available it seems to hav been fair and shows that the overwhelming majority favoured nwfp becoming a part of pakistan . He also suggests that Jinnah should not hav become the governor general. One wonders why the Walis are so averse to being in office. When one has created a country from scratch than it is the expectation of the people that the leader of the movement becomes the government leader too. That has been the pattern worldwide and Jinnah did not loose any popularity or respect by becoming the governor general. In fact history shows that Jinnah still is respected thruout the country when compared to to other present and past politicians. Obviously the Walis hav never tasted such immense popular support as hav people like Jinnah.
What is now coming to the fore according to Asfandyar Wali is that the mover of pukhtunkhwa was not Wali Khan but Nawaz Sharif himself. After winning the last election he apparently in a fit of bravado suggested to Wali Khan that NWFP be renamed Pukhtunistan. Nawaz was obviously trying to impress with the immense power that people had bestowed him. But mandates and power are nothing when actions are taken which are unpopular which Nawaz has probably realized by now??!! Wali Khan apparently rejected the idea and suggested Pukhtunkhwa instead to which Nawaz did not respond . That caused Wali to think that Nawaz had approved the new name . So when Nawaz rejected the suggestion when an attempt was made to turn it into reality in response to public disapproval the ANP was stunned and walked out of the coalition. Nawaz Sharif obviously looses control of sense and reason at odd times but he is obviously afraid of negative public reactions..
According to another report the next target of the Nawaz gestapo(ehtesab bureau) might be the two ANP stalwarts azam hoti and farid toofan who the PMLn hav suddenly realized hav been corrupt all along. They also now accuse the ANP of smuggling things like narcotics.
In other developments the Ehtesab Bureau hav nabbed about 239 million in Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates from the ANZ locker of Faisal Qureshi/Robina Qureshi relatives of Usman Farooki( head of Pakistan Steel )during the Benazir era and real brother of Salman Farooki a federal secretary and close associate of both Benazir and Nawaz during their last stints in govt. Despite being accused of corruption Salman Farooki was allowed to flee the country by the Nawaz Sharif govt. ostensibly in exchange for providing information against Benazir and Zardari.
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The end of the unholy alliance or the alliance of opposites came to an end yesterday when the PMLn informed the ANP via its strongman or hawk Lt Gen (retd) Majid Malik that the name pukhtunkhwa was not acceptable to them under any circumstance. The ANP which had pushed itself into a corner on the issue than unilaterally ended the alliance. It is now thought that the positions of both Nawaz and Wali in their respective parties have been downgraded to some extent with Nasim& Khattak and Majid Malik gaining ascendancy. The ANP is arguing for literally independent provinces which is not acceptable to the majority in the country which prefers a government by the center with the provinces only dealing with provincial issues. Issues with country wide significance should be handled in the National Assembly. The PML on the other hand is agreeable to a name change but one which is generally agreeable . The PMLn has thus lost the total control it had acquired and will now have do a little begging and scraping for any further constitutional amendments . The PMLn govt in the NWFP will now have to depend on independents and will obviously have to focus on their views to keep the assembly from being dissolved. Theoretically the PMLn has lost its mandate in the NWFP and with no party in total control new elections should have been the end result. However since the ANP is expected to loose heavily they do not seem tobe pushing for new elections and are going to become the remote controlled or loyal opposition. The ANP ministers have resigned from the NWFP and Pakistan govts although they have not resigned from the positions of speaker and deputy speaker of the provincial assembly which suggests that the alliance is not totally dead or the PMLn/ANP donot want to create too many posts for the independents to aspire too. It had previously been thought that the ANP federal minister would not resign as he did not agree with the ANP's provincialism. Asfandyar Wali has had to give up the multiple positions that he had been assigned in the PMLn govt. Nawaz says that the breakup of the alliance will make no difference. The ANP which has a very short attention span or cooperation span was also the first to ask Leghari to remove Benazirs govt. Thus anybody thinking of an alliance with them had better think twice as they are unable to understand the others point of view and have an accept or else attitude on most issues. Upto the time Nawaz remained obedient and subservient to their interests he was acceptable but as soon as he decided to stand upto their blackmailing he became unreliable . One must stress that this is the general attitude of pukhuns(referring to nwfp residents only)and most other ethnically oriented people/organizations. They have only a one way understanding of things. To them it is only the pukhtun who is brave and only the pukhtun who is respectable and only the pukhtun who has honour!!! In fact they are very tribal in orientation . So the PPP who might be their next target for an alliance had better realize that they donot know how to coexist or cooperate especially when in govt. The history of the ANP is of shortlived alliances and they are generally much happier when in opposition. They are not keen tobe in govt as they donot know what todo. That is why they seem to have been unable to get any real power position in the Nawaz or Mehtab govts. In fact they were being suffered by most PMLn walas who had been in ideological confrontation with them for over 50 years. The press always thought that the coalition would not last too long given the total divergence on most issues. According to a letter in the Frontier post it was termed as "Khas Kam Jahan Pak" meaning the removal of dirt cleanses the world. Obviously both sides can use such a metaphor!!
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There is not much to discuss these days. There is the lacklustre 2010 program(according to which all problems will be solved by 2010). Pukhtunkhwa is as interesting as a wet rag. And the murder of two iranians and 10 MQM wallahs in karachi hardly raised any eyebrows. When the PPP was in power everybody raised such a fuss at the antics of the karachiites. Every murder was attributed to PPP, benazir, zardari, police, agencies, indians etc. But now nobody blames the nawaz-walikhan-altaf hussein coalition even though there are still murders aplenty.kamran Khan now does not know who doesit.
It was an year of corruption, favouritsm, downsizing, devaluation, demoralization, anarchy, destruction of institutions and crisis. The major crisis were atta, economic, judicial and presidential. The govt seemed to back away from two other crisis that is confrontation with the military and the state bank. The next federal budget they say will show nawaz sharifs capabilities as upto now he was following decisions made in the PPP era.
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