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Pakistan and Politics
by ikram ul haq
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THE ENFORCER, ECONOMY
SELF RELIANCE, CYCLONES AND MURDERS AND EMERGENCIES
MORE PROVINCES, INDIAN TERRORISM, AID, SELF RELIANCE
THE BIG FIVE BACK OFF
AMERICAN-ISRAELI COOPERATION IN THE INDIAN MISSILE AND NUCLEAR FIELDS
THE SIXTH BLAST, RESTRICTIONS ON FE ACCOUNTS AND AUSTERITY
THE BLAST AT LAST, DOLLAR PROBLEMS, SANCTIONS, AID
THE 355 DRUG SMUGGLERS,NUCLEAR BLAST, MURDERS, ECONOMICS, JUDGES, EXTERNAL LOANS etc
THE EXPECTED BLAST DELAYED, ELECTIONS AND OTHER PROBLEMS
- Shahbaz Sharif apparently is the enforcer of the Mian clan. He threatened former president Faruk Leghari with dire consequences for revealing nawaz sharifs corruption .
- The economy according to the govts economic survey is sound. Inflation is 8.2%, GDP growth 5.4%,budget deficit of 148billion, tax collection down by about 35 billion, poverty around 30%, imports down by around 12% and exports static if not lower. The GDP growth rate has been padded by reducing the growth rate of 1996-97 from 3.1to 1.3%. So actual growthrate is 3.6% which is pretty low.Per capita income is $445. Expatriate remmittances were $1.266billion
- The DIG and ADIG of Bahawalpur were gunned down by the DIG's driver.
- 53 public sector enterprises have recorded a record low growth and made a total profit of RS 1.7 billion as compared to a profit of Rs42 billion two years ago.
- The dollar crossed the Rs 50 barrier for the second time as the govt restrictions on Foreign currency withdrawal took effect.
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- The prime minister is going on the air tommorrow to plug his national self reliance fund. They already have strange characters on PTV plugging it. What they are going todo withit is still up in the air. The PMLn had started a similar scheme a year earlier to retire national debt but it only netted around $200 million most of which was in bank deposits rather than donations. The govt is probably going to cut salaries and the prime minister will offer to pay for his travel expenses from his own pocket. He might also decide to vacate the primeminister house and live without any servants in a thatched hut with his wife doing the cooking and grocery shoppings for the pared down premier lodgings . If he really goes round the bend than he might donate his 24 factories to the fund. Spending reductions in non development areas, reduction in imports and increased taxation are expected. The govt is still depending on the advice of donors who have little personal interest in the outcome. Germany has also suspended all aid activities.
- In other events a rare cyclone slightly battered coastal and karachi areas with about 10-15 deaths
- A PPP leader was gunned down in karachi by masked gunmen riding a motorbike. Such killings are attributed to the MQM who are paranoid about informers and opponents. They also seem to dislike people sitting in front of their homes. Around 50 people have been gunned down in karachi during the last 15 days. Recently Ch Nisar the minister for coordination said that the govt would help out the MQM. Maybe this is his way of helping out???
- The trade deficit during the last eleven months fell by 58%. Exports stood at 7.8 billion and imports were $9.1 billion.
- According to one minister the emergency was necessitated as the Balochistan govt had threatened to arrest the nuclear scientists preparing for the nuclear test
- Being in govt might be getting to the heads of some PMLn walas. One in particular went on a tonga ride in islamabad with a pajero in front and a BMW following.Reportedly it was a brother of the Ehtesab Bureau chief.Information minister Mushahid is starting to look like a Nawaz chela or jiyala as he cant stand anyone critizing Nawaz . Strange things happen to sane men when in govt.
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- According to the press the govt might attempt to convert four provinces into eight. The country already faces ethnic problems due to the four and some feel that the only development that takes place in provinces is at the provincial capitols. Eight provinces are tobe named Pukhtunia,Jinnahpur Seraikijagah, South Pukhtunabad and Hazara apart from sind,punjab and balochistan. some even hope for Potohar, Qabaili and Balti provinces in addition to that. Apart from reducing ethnic strife the eight provinces could enhance rural development and obviously increase costs as there would be eight governors, chief ministers, assemblies and beaurocracies.However the govt lacks a two third majority in the senate to get any constitutional amendment thru.
- Two bomb blasts have taken place after the indian home minister vowed to crush the kashmiri struggle. Both occurred at public places which is synonymous with terrorist intentions and around 27 people were killed.
- The pakistanis and indians have both rejected the big five resolutions which ask them to stop testing and sign the NPT and the CTBT. How ever pakistanis have welcomed the recognition of the kashmir issue.
- The FIA chief has been removed after he apparently sealed a bank branch and investigated a Nawaz Sharif relative on attempting to withdraw foreign currency from a bank late at night.
- The army major general who was appointed by the Nawaz Sharif govt has been removed after the Pakistan Steels Mills suffered a loss of Rs 3 billion.
- According to former president faruk legari nawaz sharif has stashed around $900 million in accounts abroad.
- Imran Khan has offered to join the govt to run their Self Reliance fund which he says can raise $1.5 billion.
- The pakistani govt expects the arabs primarily the UAE and Saudi Arabia to coughup two billion in aid to cover pakistans aid loss from sanctions.
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- The five acknowledged nuclear powers which are allowed nuclear testing have asked the two new nuclear test powers to relieve tensions thru negotiations and to stop testing . However they have not been able to agree on collective sanctions. Sanctions upto now have only been applied individuallty by the usa, japan, australia and sweden. However negotiations between pakistan and india have upto now never progressed beyond the initial stages.
- The pakistani premier said in a statement that the issue of kashmir would now be solved as the world has acknowledged its existence. However there seems to be no method of solution at present given current indian views.
- The indian home minister says that he will move agressively to suppress the kashmir independence movement.
- The indians have moved their top line aircraft the su-27 to srinagar airport and have closed down the airport for civilian use.
- The pakistani press suggests that an indo-pakistani war in kashmir may still be on the cards as india is moving troops and aircraft into the expected battlezone. A war they say would devastate both countries within a few days.
- While the usa has stopped supplying military equipment to pakistan the russians continue to supply india with top of the line weapons . The latest in this line they say is the indian desire to acquire the russian anti missile system something similar to the american patriot system.
- According to another unconfirmed report North Korea might have at least one atom bomb as pakistan reportedly exchanged 11 rodong missiles for one bomb.
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According to information coming out in the past few days pakistan might not have gone for a nuclear test but for two american fighter jets which were spotted at a Forward Operating indian airbase on the 27th of May. The pakistani govt immediately raised the matter with washington, new delhi and the UN and immediately ordered the goahead for the nuclear test. It was apprehended that the american planes were flown by israelis and that they were on a mission to destroy pakistans nuclear facility. Pakistan also ordered a red alert and orders were given to retaliate against specific indian targets if the planes crossed into pakistani airspace. That apparently dettered the israelis and the pakistani nuclear test went ahead peacefully. According to other details the entire indian missile and nuclear research system received almost total support fron americans and israelis. Indias top scientist is american trained and has visited israel and the usa to study missile technology. Obviously the israeli planes could not be in India without american approval and it raises the spectre of duplicity in american attitudes. Both indian and pakistani nuclear institutes were setup with american help in the fifties and sixties.Later both got support from the canadians and french. Later on the indians got help from the russians while the pakistanis were helped out by the chinese.
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Pakistan carried out its sixth and last nuclear test blast for the present. Some future tests are planned however it is generally believed that a strategic and political balance has been achieved which was lost after the indian nuclear tests. Pakistan will now work on improving its missile systems and probably start to design nuclear warheads. Western sources say that the pakistanis estimates of the power of their nuclear blasts is exxagerated. Probably faulty equipment. According to the press these blasts are the most popular event in pakistani history with support ratings of 97%. However concern is being expressed over the imposition of emergency and restricting the withdrawal of foreign currency from Foreign Currency accounts.
The other event that is going tobe Nawaz Sharifs next political bandwagon is the austerity wheel. According to the press all PMLn govt leaders will give up luxurious govt buildings and residences and move into ordinary rented houses. The first steps in this direction are the vacation of the newly built Prime Ministers secretariat, the prime ministers house and the frontier house(cm residence). The next steps are going tobe the vacation of governor houses and finally they will vacate the assemblies (joke). Another austerity measure is the ending of mouth tickling chicken tickas and chicken roast tobe replaced by two chapatis and a plate of daal as the standard menu for the prime ministers house. Apparently the CJ has given up his luxurious mercedes and Nawaz too is said tobe embarassed to travel around in mercedes while his supporters use cycles and tongas. All this is meant to reduce non development expenditure by 50%.HOWEVER DONT BLAME ME IF THIS TURNS OUT TO FALSE.
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- The pakistani nuclear tests which had been in the pipeline for almost twenty years finally occurred. There was calm jubilation at home while western countries threatened sanctions. Five nuclear tests were carried out almost simultaneously with yields of 12-45 kilotons at the Chagai test site in balochistan. According to one newspaper five shafts of around 800 meter depth and several meters wide were drilled. The test was recorded around the world on seismic instruments and was almost similar to a small earthquake. According to BBC they were small fision devices compared to indias sophisticated fision and fusion devices.There are also rumours that further tests are planned to improve the pakistani devices.
- The usa immediately announced sanctions and other nations such as sweden, australia and japan announced military and financial aid cutoffs. Germany and france opposed sanctions. The net effect of sanctions could be between 1.5-3 billion dollars depending on whether sanctions effect future aid or aid in the pipeline as well.
- The govt immediately announced a state of emergency as there was the possibility of an indian attack. The govt also announced severe restrictions on foreign exchange cash flows and ended the system of money changers. The dollar according to reports had already reached Rs50 in the black market and is expected to rise to as much as Rs 75 as the govt curbs on foreign exchange movement will immediately restrict inflows as well. The hundi and black market which had almost been eliminated will start to flourish again. Gold prices were also on the rise. Gold is always a safe haven in times of govt restrictions on foreign exchange.
- If conditions worsen pakistan could immediately declare a moratorium on loan repaymenst which are expected tobe around $6 billion in the next year.
- The govt has decided on increasing taxes substantially to around Rs 500 billion from almost Rs300 billion at present. That would coupled with a dollar rate rise cause a severe price spiral which the govt will have to guard against.
- Other suggestions include reduction in imports by 10-20 percent and reduction in development by upto 10-20% .Some suggest that unconventional sources for funds be probed to counter the effect of sanctions.
- If sanctions effect exports than the country would probably have to reduce spending/imports further.
- The jittery Karachi Stock Exchange lost all its gains since 1993 as foreign funds pulled out and commonly traded stocks such as Hubco, Ptcl and Ici fell to the Rs.17-19 level in kerb trading. The KSE has lost a third of its value in the last few days.
- Karachi seems to be falling back into its cycle of violence as 12 people including six policemen were killed in politically motivated and dacoity related violence.
- Pakistan as expected lost its attempts to gain a semifinal birth in the World Cup Hockey. In embarassing defeats the team seemed to lack the necessary skills to play at the world level and the australians in particular ran over them like a bulldozer. The lack of physical fitness was also apparent as the boys could not work up any speed. Their defence however was pathetic as it was repeatedly found to be out of place as the opponents raced thru time and time again. This is a major blow for the PMLn punjab boss akhter rasool who is also the head ans selector of the pakistan hockey federation. One would suggest a full time professional with hockey expertise as the boss of the PHF. It also seems almost certain that the asian style of playing hockey is dead and ready tobe buried. The boys need to be trained in the modern methods of hockey and also need to improve their physical fitness. An academy of hockey might be the answer as tournaments are no longer throwing up the skilled players needed to play at world level.
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- In what maybe another of the saif-nawaz dirty tricks the govt has according to Benazir Bhutto supplied a foreign govt with a list of 355 prominent leaders, influential people, generals, politicians,journalists etc as being involved in drug smuggling.
- The Qarz utaro nawaz sharif govt has despite continued privatization increased external debts by 5% to around 30 billion dollars. The nawaz govt is now trying to privatize HBL and PTCL in a further bid to rid the govt of management of state concerns. No major change has been noticed in organizations have been partially privatized.
- In another gruesome politically motivated murder the six year old grandson of the Punjabi-Pukhtun Ittehad chief in karachi was murdered while several others were injured when several gunmen opened fire on their car. In the past such actions have been attributed to the MQM. Govt involvement however cannot be ruled out.
- It now seems almost certain that the govt might back out of conducting a nuclear test in retaliation to indias. Nawaz Sharif who has already shown his willingness to accept indian hegemony is losing considerable support for trying to fool the masses on the issue. Other reports suggest that the bomb has already been lowered into a shaft and sealed with the instrumentation in place. However reports suggest that they have not even dug a hole yet. There are also doubts asto the location of the site which is now said tobe in a inhabited area. Most of the countries inhabited areas lie in balochistan while there are desert expanses in punjab and Sind as well. Some also suggest that the shaft might be in the northern hilly terrain.
- The NWFP chief minister's removal seems tobe the main demand of the ANP in attempts to rejoin the coalition. Mehtab who came out of the blue to become the MWFP CM has earned the ire of the ANP for his support for the Kalabagh dam. He seems tobe the only Chief Minister coming from a smaller province who has the guts to do so in the national interest. He has otherwise handled things competently and was admired by the ANP until recently for his calm approach to problems. In the process the PMLn might agree to a watered down new name for the province which wud include the name pukhtun. The PMLn generally supports a non controversial name for the province.
- The hijackers of the PIA plane have admitted to indian links but are said to belong to group of smugglers . However most people regard it as a serious security lapse. The PMLn is irked at not being allowed into security areas and thus has tended to reduce security at airports.
- The govt has removed four relativeley competent judges appointed by Sajjad Ali Shah from the Punjab High Court and confirmed some ordinary ones.
- Sartaj Aziz says there will be an atomic bast but he does not know when. He opines that the people will have to suffer as a result. $1.5 billion in aid will be stopped and investments will suffer which can be offset by reducing imports of luxury items. Improvements in tax collection and return of asetts by pakistanis cud also help he says. However he forgets to mention that the dollar wud probablty become very expensive.
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- The expected nuclear blast has not yet materialised and people are wondering whether Nawaz is using the issue to arrest a sagging popularity. What one has seen over the past two weeks since the indian blast are just speeches and rhetoric. With the indians getting more and more threatening something is bound to break. Whether it will be Nawaz or the indians ? There is a possibility of a full fledged conflict or a minor war. Such theater wars such as the one in Siachen have been used by the generals on both sides to frighten politicians. However the indians are threatening and it is the general consensus that a nuclear blast would be a timely answer. The delay to the test is based on the unstable nature of Nawaz and his advisors. It is surmised that despite comments to the contrary the govt is waiting for a response from washington on a possible compromise. However the USA is reportedly not to keen on anything substantial in return for not carrying out a nuclear test. Since that is the situation and there is no major opposition to the test than the delay can only be attributed to technical reasons. Those might include a lack of equipment, not enough uranium, technical inexperience, possible problems on the selection of a site, when to doit ?, the number of tests , possible consequences such as sanctions might also be a possible hindrance and last but most important a lack of resolve. Nawaz who is known tobe indecisive on many matters is known to dash of to lahore whenever a decision on any matter is needed.
- The punjab local body elections concluded in a mild rebuke for the govt. While the PMLn supposedly won around 50% of the seats given the comparision with the sweep in the national elections it can only be regarded as a loss. Shabaz Sharif should obviously be blamed for the 30 who died in the elections for not making proper arrangements. Kalashnikov firings were literally the order of the day thruout the punjab. Many PMLn ministers and MNAs were reported to have taken over voting booths and in many areas there were reports of ballot boxes being looted. In many areas cooperation was witnessed between the PPP and the PMLn. However there are also reports of the PMLn claiming PPP winners as their candidates .
- The Karachi stock exchange crashed to a five year low on panic selling by foreign investors who pulled out on worries over a nuclear test. The stock that lost the most seemed tobe Hubco. The stock exchange lost 250 points and a capitilisation of 100billion
- Concern was further agravated when the govt police surrounded Hubco. However no arrests or other actions were reported. Hubco is in balochistan and the district authorities might have stationed police to avoid conflicts in land claims etc. The Balochistan chief secretary who was responsible for ordering the police to surround the HUBCO plant has been reportedly promoted to the position of Secretary Ministry of Water and Power and will now deal with HUBCO matters.The restrictions on the British employees of Hubco not to leave the plant area were later lifted. it was later reported that despite being in balochistan the power plants were registered in Islamabad causing a loss of revenue to the balochistan govt. The balochistan govt has ordered both Hubco and Uchh to get their plants registered in balochistan. They have also said that police surrounded the Hubco plant only for security reasons which was misinterpreted by the british staff of Hubco as being put under house arrest.
- The govt seems to have backed off from arresting Benazir Bhutto and for the first time a senior minister went to meet her. There are reports on a possible reconciliation between the PMLn and PPP. The PMLn has been waging a dirty tricks campaign against the PPP for the last two years. For the first time reports appeared in the press accusing the Ehtesab Bureau of dirty tactics especially in accusing Asif Zardari of murders and drug smuggling. During the PPP era several major drug smugglers were arrested and some were extradited to the USA . The PMLn govt has shown overt support for drug smuggling and money laundering by releasing several drug smugglers and settling with jailed bankers involved in the Mehran Bank scam.
- The chief minister of nwfp is facing problems as several of his mpas are against his attitudes and the ANP has also vowed to have him removed. So there might be a possible change in the NWFP govt if internal disputes are not resolved amongst the PMLn.
- A PIA plane onits way from Turbat to Karachi was hijacked by pro indian baloch who tried to have it diverted to India but the pakistan airforce forced it to land at hyderabad whre security personnel overpowered them. This is the first incident since the present PMLn govt removed air guards from all airline flights for financial reasons. No hijacking took place on pakistani flights during the period when two armed air guards were on each flight.
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