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Pakistan and Politics
by ikram ul haq
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WEEKENDS, PETROL, MAYHEM
BULLET PROOF CARS AND MENGAL IN TROUBLE
ECONOMICS, GIMICKRY,PROPUPS,SALES ETC
ALLAH TAKES BACK THOSE THE CENSUS FORGOT TO COUNT
RUMOURS RUN PAKISTANS ECONOMY
SPINNING OUT OF CONTROL
RAIWIND, POPULATION, MORATORIUM,
FC ACCOUNTS, CONTEMPT, KARACHI
KARACHI SITUATION WORSENS
KARACHI VIOLENCE, FE ACCOUNTS, QUOTAS
MURDERS, FE ACCOUNTS, The RUPEE
- Nawaz Sharif poor old soul who spends weekends in Murree with his family (only partakes of dal roti) and not in London due to his austerity drive has increased petrol prices by 25% to please the IMF and not to hurt the people..Well the pakistani people are much better off than in the days that nawaz sharif knew them and a large segment does own cars.Petroleum import prices are however at their lowest. Further negative news might be on the way if the IMF is still not pleased.
- Karachi is in the grips of an MQMh strike as a sunni tehreek leader was killed.Rumours suggest shiites are knocking them off on the orders of the iranians or party rivals are to blame or the MQM/JS
- According to the daily jang the railways has been divided into four seperate companies namely passenger, freight, services and infrastructure
- BBC suggests that the govt might arrest Benazir soon.
- Pakistans foreign exchange reserves are at their lowest $600million since the nawaz govt took over.
- Money Changers are to loan the govt $30million in exchange for rupee loans at Rs50 to the dollar
- An SP and SHO have been killed in faisalabad and vehari
- Akhter Mengal the Balochistan CMis facing a revolt amongst his own party. All but one of his mpa's have formed a dissident group in the provincial assembly and are asking him to quit. The old guard of the BNP are supporting Ataullah Mengal however the dissident mpa's seem to regard Ataullah Mengal as anti punjab. Anti punjab politics has been popular in all the three provinces especially amongst nationalists. When they have nothing else to blame for their failures than punjab serves as a popular punching bag. Akhter Mengal only recently survived a PMLn led revolt and if he resigns than the PMLn is most likely tobe asked toform a new govt
- . The prime minister has given the additional charge of communications to haleem siddiqui who is minister of state in the water and power ministry. The prime minister has been unable to decide on a new minister for communications since the resignation of Azam Hoti several months ago. One wonders why nawaz sharif is so slow in personnel decision making. One can only assume that the prime minister is unable to force a consensus amongst his close advisors
- Nawaz Sharif after a few days of bravado has again started using bulletproof cars even in the relatively safe Islamabad. One can only assume that threats are probably being made at a rate greater than normal.
- The three pukhtun groups in the country ANP, PMAP and PQP have agreed to an alliance led by mahmud achakzai
- Asif Zardari who is politically close to the PMLn has been charged with money laundering by the swiss authorities. Asif and Benazir are accused of taking commisions and kickbacks while in govt. However the minute amounts sofar discovered in swiss accounts allegedly $13.8 million does not lend credence to the charge.
- There are rumours that an emergency budget is on the way despite an easing of the financial situation.At the time of budget formation Nawaz Sharif refused to take into consideration the difficult economic situation ahead and preferred political gimmickry which caused severe problems and an adhoc approach to monetary policy
- The rupee situation has improved considerably as it is now Rs55==$1 which has come down from a high of Rs67==$1
- Pakistans international credit rating has been downgraded by two notches
- Pakistans economists donot now regard the IMF as a dependable ally in troubled times. Having literally followed IMF dictates into the ditch pakistan apparently is not considered worthy of a few hundred propup millions by the IMF. However IMF might come thru if the americans help out pakistan.
- The US parliament has empowered president clinton to lift curbs on nuclear states pakistan and india
- Wapda spent Rs15million to electrify Nawaz Sharifs surrey mansion (raiwind estate) for which it was paid only Rs5 million.
- Nawaz Sharif who loves foreign tours has had two tours to europe and china cancelled for unknown reasons. Outsiders suggest the hosts were not too comfortable with the idea.
- The most beautiful building in islamabad the prime ministers secretariat is up for sale. Some suggest that it will be converted into a hotel by the purchasee who is most likely too be a frontman for the sharifs.Nawaz Sharif himself has retreated/taken refuge in the Federal Secretariat hidden away from partyworkers and troubled people.
- Asif Zardaris accounts and assetts in pakistan have been defrozen by the Punjab High Court, however the ban on their sale remains.
- Benazir has however been threatened with arrest for being on a foreign tour and not appearing in court.The court also rejected that it was biased and refused to centralize all cases against her in Sind.She got permission from the Sind High Court to leave the country
- A court in the Isle of Man has apparently restricted the sale of the Surrey mansion until its ownership and the nature of funds that went into its purchase can be determined.
- The freeze on Foreign Currency accounts was wrong says shahbaz sharif the apparent economics minister in awaiting.
- The Islamic Development Bank has increased pakistans credit line to $400 million.
- MQMa has started to cooperate with the Jeay Sind Mahaz both allies of the PMLn and has reiterated its opposition to the kalabagh dam. Some suggest that the MQMa is on its way out of its alliance with the PMLn
- The usually tailwagging pakistani govt is apparently going to decide on the CTBT signing after talks with India and the US however the COAS suggests that pakistan has no intentions todoso
- A Sunni Tehrik leader was killed in karachi along with four others
- Mahbubul Haq seen by many as a mafia economist and author of many controversial economic reforms has died
- Cement prices have nosedived from Rs230 to Rs150 and ghee prices have risen by Rs5 a kilo
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- According to general estimates the recent pakistan census has undercounted people by around 50-60%. That can only point to a serious mistake in how experts estimate or approximate populations. The census cannot be considered at fault as it was conducted by the pakistan army whichis considered foolproof inits honesty. However apart from the MQM nobody is taking the undercounting too seriously. One would however like to point out that some of punjabs cities consider their populations tobe three times the census estimates.
- One of the MQM's supreme leaders Farooq Sattar has resigned from the Sind cabinet and become MQM's provincial parliamentary leader as well as the head of the KSWB. It is surmised that the MQM leadership considered Farooq Sattar a failure while others accuse him of corruption. The MQM is one of the few parties that is practising remote participation in govt thru low level leaders. Its senior leadership which is afraid of being tainted with failure keeps its distance from govt positions, participation and responsibility.
- Around 22 people were killed in karachi from drowning in the treacherous waves of the troubled karachi sea.
- The govt has delayed its crackdown against defaulters after the Punjab High Court forbade their arrest.
- The govt wary of being overridden by the Supreme Court has reinstated some of the constitutional fundamental rights that it had usurped while imposing the emergency.
- The govt has imposed some restrictions on the financing of imports. Imports are now only possible thru LC's which will have tobe paid for at the exchange rate applicable on delivery dates.
- Around 30 seemingly political and minor defaulters have been put on the exit control list
- After rumours spread that the govt was mulling seizing bank lockers and that the World bank had advised demonetizing currency notes the countries bigwigs immediately emptied their lockers and even removed huge amounts from their bank accounts. The rumours were spread from leaks emanating from the prime ministers economic think tanks. The rumours were sustained by govt efforts to seize defaulter assetts
- After listing austerity as his economic theme even low level second tier advisors have been sent on foreign tours by the prime minister. Some suggest that useless foreign tours can be replaced by using ambassadors more efficiently and talking to foreign counterparts on the telephone.
- The prime ministers efforts to gain monetary support from the islamic countries have apparently failed. Now the govt aims to focus on europe to counter american sanctions pressure.
- There are suggestions in the press that the Governor NWFP and Sind Chief Minister maybe replaced due to their opposition to the Kalabagh dam
- Several policemen were among the 15 people killed over the last few days in continuing karachi violence.
- Almost $1.40 billion of the $11billion stuck in Foreign Currency accounts has been converted to rupees. People are taking the converted rupees out of the banking system and buying dollars in the open market. That has caused the rupee to devalue to Rs61 to the dollar and the converters have made millions which the govt expected to stifle by freezing FC accounts.
PAGE INDEXTo go back to the Top- The pakistan economy seems tobe spinning out of control as raiwinds childish economists seem to have no clear idea of objectives, policies and the expected results of their policies. Sanctions which were supposed to have no impact according to earlier reactions of Sartaj Aziz are now haumting the govt after their silly actions boomeranged. Govt reserves are plummeting and the govt has not made any effort to create or arrange new resources. The govts economists are literally sliding into 65 era economic policies. Obviously with no hope of outside help to shore up foreign exchange reserves the rupee yesterday slid to 66==$ before settling at around 60==$. The govts economists have survived upto now on anti bhutto rhetoric and the notion that zardari was the root of all ills. However with that no longer having any effect the govts uneducated economists are at their wits ends.
- The govt yesterday imposed further curbs on the Foreign Exchange by asking travellers and people studying abroad to arrange their FE requirements from the open market. The SBP also increased forward cover rates for FC's.
- The KSE fell to a record low of of 777 with prime stock HUBCO trading at around RS 7. Hubco was trading in the Rs 50 range before the current govt came to power.
- The only option left to the govt is to ban all imports, impose a moratorium on debt repayments and institute a fixed exchange rate of around Rs 55. Any money exchanger or individual who tries to speculate would have tobe shut down or put behind bars.
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- Pakistans population now stands at 130.5 million give or take a few. No major demographic shifts have taken place except the reduction in rural population as %age. In Sind urban population is 48.9% while in Punjab the urban population is 31.3%. Overall urban population has grown from 28.3% to 32.5%. The province wise %ages are Punjab 55.6%, Sind 23%,NWFP 13.4% FATA 0.6%, Balochistan 5%, Capital Territory 0.6%. Growth rate is lower at 2.61%.Population of the controversial port city of karachi is 9.26 million substantially lower than estimates but still higher by a million than actuals.There are 23 urban centers with populations of 0.2 million . Lahore has 5.063 million and Faisalabad 1.97 million. There does seem tobe some minor manipulations but results are nearly as expected. One expected Punjabs population to have grown faster as it is pakistans boom area but they say people leave just as fast as as others come in.
- The Nawaz family which is now one of the richest in the country due largely to the largesse of pakistani banks has unveiled its one billion rupee Raiwind Complex. Spread over an area of around a thousand acres it houses palatial residences, a 300 acre farm, a 500 bed hospital, a school, a medical teaching facility, 200 acre dairy farm, 350 line exchange, Polytechnic institute, Nursing and Midwifery school etc. The sharifs who must really be minting money have built it all in 17 months at a cost of Rs 740 million. The punjab govt headed by a sharif has chipped in by providing govt funded roads and forcibly purchasing land for papa.
- The balochistan cabinet has been increased to a whopping size of 25 which is the total number of mpas supporting the govt. Eight PMLn mpas have been inducted as ministers
- Sartaj Aziz says that if the IMF does not cough much needed cash than a moratoruium maybe placed on repayments to all countries and organizations that support sanctions.
- Hubco which is daggers drawn with the pakistan govt over electricity rates has taken its case to the International Court of Arbitration
- Only 1000 tax defaulters have been identified by CBR.The govt intends to fire all CBR officials and start afresh
- While this does not relate to pakistani politics it seems that the Nigerians have knocked off two of their countries rulers. General Abacha and Mashood Abiola died of heart attacks within days of each other
- The MQM which is the only organization not interested in peace in karachi is being cold shouldered by Nawaz Sharif.With most of the recent violence orchestrated by the MQM, Sharif refused to meet senior MQMwalas when they arrived in Islamabad with the Sind CM. Apparently the MQM has been using official information to knock of supposed informants.
PAGE INDEXTo go back to the Top- The govt continues to dither on foreign currency accounts. After assuring expatriate pakistanis that all restrictions on withdrawal/ deposits would be removed the govt has yet to move on the issue. Thus FC accounts have become meaningless to depositors as the rate of exchange in the open market is six rupees higher than the govt rate. Since govt policy has caused inflows to shrink by almost 100% there seems tobe no reason left to continue FC accounts. The govt should at the least give market rates for anyone to be foolish enough to deposit or open a FC account. Such accounts were allowed to overseas pakistanis in the early seventies and resident pakistanis in the early nineties. Mostly ordinary people have around $11 billion stuck in such accounts.
- The Supreme Court in a courageous move has indicted 6 PMLn legislators, 10 pmln activists and 12 administration officials for contempt in the storming of the Supreme Court building organised mostly by the PMLn's punjab wing. The 26 include a political assistant to the current prime minister.
- According to the News nawaz sharif is extremely slow in making decisions. According to them he sometimes takes as long as eight months to make a personnel change decision.
- The powers of Sind Rangers to deal with law and order problems in karachi have been restored. The Minister of Interior Chaudhry Shujaat commented that he had no idea who was behind the violence in karachi!! A committee headed by the Sind Chief minister and Haleem siddiqui a minister at the center has been formed to deal with the violence.
- Over the last two days 12 people were gunned down in karachi which included a former PPP councillor and a former PMLn MNA.
- The primeministers office has been shifted to the cabinet block of the Secretariat.
- A senior police officer(DSP) ,his driver and a passerby were killed in shujaabad.
- $1billion have fled the country after the freeze on FC accounts says Sartaj Aziz
PAGE INDEXTo go back to the Top- After a days lull 11 more people were killed including cops and rangers. While both the PMLn and MQM mock the police only the MQM is against the rangers which clearly points the blame at the MQM. The PMLn is avoiding putting the blame on the MQM because of their being allies. The ultimatum given to the the MQM-Jatoi alliance is almost over and a major operation maybe initiated to nab karachis terrorists. Some serious steps will have tobe taken to correct the situation. The MQM which might be attempting to topple Jatoi thru violence will have to learn tobe a serious coalition partner. The govt should also do something to counter the propaganda that those killed are indian agents, indian immigrants or murderers being killed in revenge.
- The worlds tallest person Alam Channa died in a New York hospital of kidney failure.
- Nwfp speaker Chamkani has declared the PMLn khidmat committees as illegal as they have no legal cover
- One of the persons Iftikhar Chaudry claiming tobe an escaped pakistani scientist seeking asylum in the USA is apparently fake as he worked for a ceramics factory and is supposedly an accountant, medical doctor, civil engineer, research assistant and nuclear scientist rolled into one.
PAGE INDEXTo go back to the Top- According to press reports Liaqat Jatoi is falling out of favour with the center for his inability to stem violence in karachi. They suggest that governor rule is inappropriate but point to an unconstitutional arrangement in which karachi will be directly controlled by the center via a governor-central ministers committee. According to the press there were no murders in karachi on the 1st.Maybe they had fulfilled their 1997-98 contracts by the end of the financial year and had no outstanding target left for the 1st?? Some suggest that apart from the MQM-MQMh terrorists other groups such as the hyderabadi group, farook sattar group,dubai group and altafs personal henchmen are also contributing to the violence. Others point to sindhi groups and intelligence walas too.Some are also suggesting that Farook Sattar maybe making a move to replace altaf hussein thus causing all the violence
- Despite assurances from the prime minister the SPB has again reitrated its previous position on Foreign Currency accounts. That is they can be maintained but withdrawals in FC are not allowed. One wonders who will open or deposit FC in their accounts when they are not allowed to get FC when needed. The whole point of FC accounts is that the depositor can get FC whenever he wants. The distinction being created between old and new FC accounts and deposits is hard to fathom. Depositors should be wary of depositing FC or opening new FC account under current conditions. Maybe it is time to change the SBP governor!?? Some suggest that the primeminister is trying to deceive his expatriate supporters. Such tactics are bound to boomerang. Others suggest that the misconceptions of untold riches amongst expatriate pakistanis which causes a lot of heartburn amongst homebound pakistanis especially of the beaurocrat/intelligence/lazy types is the main cause of such strange policies.
- The govt has approved new legislation restoring the quota system untill 2018. Punjabis were overwhelmingly being selected to the detriment of sindhis, pathans and baloch which caused the rethink. The quota system was declared illegal and unislamic by the judiciary. The only bad aspect about it is that less qualified people get priority and generally work suffers as a result.
- More than 20 people have been killed in firing by indian forces acroos the kashmir line of control. The pakistanis are as usual holding back from a full fledged retaliation.
- The supreme court in a tame judgement has decreed that the CEC cannot disqualify a legislator even if they say that the judiciary is the most corrupt organization in the country.The SC also refused to consider press reports as viable evidence in contrast to the Sajjad Ali Shah judgement in the Benazir removal case wherein the SC accepted press reports as viable evidence. The SC is guilty of double standards and obviously the constitution is no bar to their judgements.The CEC had declared Tarrar tobe unfit tobe president as he was unfit tobe an MNA.
- Apparently five employees of the pakistani atomic agencies have fled the country one of whom has ended up in the USA. According to reports he defected in order to protest the targeting of indian military sites with low yield atomic weapons. They are supposed to be part of a ring involved in spreading information about the pakistani atomic plan.Pakistani sources suggest that one of them iftikhar chaudhry was a low level former employee. They defectors revealed that pakistan has developed a fast breeder 50MW reactor at khushab which can produce plutonium needed for hydrogen bombs. He also reveals that pakistan gets heavy water from china and that he has observed iranians working at pakistans various facilities. The reports also suggest that pakistan has a deal with iran to exchange free petroleum products for atomic knowledge. The murder of iranian cadets is also linked to this situation! While workers of pakistani atomic agencies routinely leave the country for jobs abroad the present situation looks like an attempt to use the political situation for getting staying rights abroad?
PAGE INDEXTo go back to the Top- 21 people were killed by roving gunmen and snipers in karachi during the last two days. The govt is starting to move in attempts to stem the violence. There seems tobe a change as apart from relying on the dependable Sind Rangers the govt is moving in around 3000 policemen from other districts of Sind in order to have more policemen on the streets
- The rupee fell to record levels against the dollar in the open market. The rupee was hovering around the 55 to the dollar.
- In order to calm the volatility in the forex market, provide some dollars to the open market and assure pakistani expatriates the prime minister assured that all FE accounts would be allowed to operate freely within a few days.He however advised restraint in withdrawing dollars.According to a Jang report the SBP governor stated that the accounts have already been defrozen
- In a case contesting the imposition of emergency and withdrawal of all fundamental rights the Supreme Court CJ observed that there were no reasons to suspend fundamental rights and that the president could not suspend all fundamental rights in any case.
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