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THE CONTROVERSIAL PRESIDENT DESIGNATE
THE PRESIDENTIAL/PRIME MINISTERIAL/JUDICIAL CONFLICT STUMBLES TOWARDS AN END
THE DOINGS OF THE ARMY, ANP, PMLn, MQMa AND THE PPP
NAWAZ KNOCKS OUT THE ARMY,JUDICIARY AND THE PRESIDENCY
THE POLITICISED JUDICIARY AND ARMY CHIEF BUCKLES UNDER
The new president designate Rafiq Tarrar has already caused a lot of controversy. A lot of people are opposing the nomination on the grounds that it furthers the concept of Punjabi hegemony which is the basis of Nawaz Sharifs govt. It was generally felt that a nomination from the provinces of Nwfp, Balochistan or Sind would have created a better atmosphere. Others object to the nomination on the grounds that Tarrar is linked to the fundamentalist nofrills Tableeghi jamaat. Still others think that Tarrar was a member of a group which opposed the formation of Pakistan. A large number of such groups support the Nawaz Sharif govt. Benazir Bhutto whose last govt was based solely on the politics of karachi has called Nawaz Sharif the GM Syed of Punjab for his chauvinistic punjabi politics. She too has nominated a Sindhi in Aftab Shabaan Mirani for the position and can be accused of being a chauvinistic Sindhi. It may be interesting to mention that The PPP is facing a lot of problems with the Sindhi speaker of the National Assembly. The PPP which elected the last two presidents could not get along with either of them. The only factor in favour of Tarrar at present is that he is supposedly from the lower middle income group. His wife according to the Jang states that they are a dervish family which does not apparently jibe with being friends with the billionaire industrialist Sharifs. A lot of Nawaz supporters who are liberal fringe muslims are miffed and outraged though they care two hoots for the feelings of other provinces. Some feel that Tarrar is the choice of Nawaz Sharifs Abbaji while others feel that Nawaz has some old political obligations /debts to Tarrar which are now being paid in full.
Tarrar was born in Pirkote village of GhakkarMandi and brought up in Gujranwala. He now resides in Lahore.He served in low level judicial positions before being elevated to the Punjab High Court.He was later promoted to the Supreme Court from where he retired in 1994. His age must be around 68 and has been in politics for only ten months. Apart from being a senator he has also served on the Pakistan Election Commision and the Film Censor Board. As a judge he gave several pro nawaz judgements. He headed the bench that dismissed a writ petition which sought the restoration of the first Benazir govt. He was also part of the SC bench which restored Nawaz Sharifs first govt in 1993. Sajjad Ali Shah wrote the dissenting note in that judgement. He was also a member of the enquiry commision which looked into the causes of the death of COAS Asif Nawaz. He was opposed to the appointment of Sajjad Ali Shah as CJ and might be the schemer behind Nawaz Sharifs fight with the CJ.
Apparently the rejection of the other key contenders was the doing of Nawaz and the ANP. The ANP did not think Sartaj to be sufficiently pukhtun and Nawaz did not like Soomru and Wasim. Nawaz has apparently promised Pukhtunkhawa to the ANP in exchange for their support of Tarrar.
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In a surprise move the PMln has nominated the relatively unknown Rafiq Tarrar as its presidential candidate. Tarrar( from gujranwala) is a PMLn senator and a former SC judge/CJ of the Punjab High Court. The PMLn was expected to name somebody from the NWFP or Sind however it seems that Nawaz could not find somebody dependable from those provinces. This nomination signals Nawaz Sharifs lack of confidence in his close political associates who were all presidential hopefuls. Nawaz also has attempted to sidestep growing alienation amongst his provincial allies. If he had appointed someone from Sind than Nwfp would have been disappointed and vice versa. Nawaz obviously did not want Sartaj or Soomru to be his nominal boss. Most of the people amongst the PMLn considered for the job were thought to be lacking in ability. Nawaz has again picked someone from his northern base. Tarrar will probably be the first bearded political head of the country. Given that Nawaz Sharifs hometown is now Raiwind it is a possibility that Tarrar also comes from the Tableeghi group.In the past judges have been preferred for governorships when there is no consensus on political nominees. This is the fourth president in a row who has a background of belonging to one of the institutions. The previous three belonged to the army and the beaurocracy . This is another pointer indicating that Nawaz, his ministers and his allies do not think alike on many issues. Mushahid Hussein the PMLn information minister says that Tarrar is a moderate muslim with a clean record. Which shows that the govt was concerned about appointing a fundamentalist or extremist shia or sunni. howeve othershink that Tarrar is a fundamentalist, orthodox and conservative. In general the Nawaz Sharif govt has been allied with the shiites but has attempted to portray itself as god fearing and sunnite in belief.
The defence in the CJ seniority case has asked for a 15 judge panel as ordered in the original Justice Saeeduzzaman decision. It is thought that five other judges had refused to sit on the panel. Despite it being a simple case with no legal or constitutional tangles a 10 judge panel has been constituted. The judges have already said that they will not go beyond the Judges case decision in which Sajjad Ali Shah had decided that the seniormost judge had the rightful expectation to be appointed CJ. But even in that case they had not made it mandatory . Despite that the govt has since been promoting only the seniormost judges to reduce confusion and conflict. However since Sajjad was appointed prior to the Judges case it does not theoretically apply on him but he should morally accept its application. The judges who favour seniority in general should differentiate between the concepts of promotion and appointment. If the judges insist that the seniormost judge be appointed CJ irrespective of ability, intellect and capability than the principle could also be applicable to other institutions such as the army and the beaurocracy and the private sector . The constitution in general does not support the principle of seniority. In general such a decision would reduce confusion and conflict but it would reduce competition. In general political, familial and regional motivations /instincts have always been overiding factors in appointments to senior positions which is the general background to this case.
The UBL one of the countries biggest banks has reportedly lost 20 billion rupees out of 100 billion in deposits during the last three months after 5500 employees were fired abruptly. The employees were generally responsible for the banks bad image and reputation since they generally refused to help out customers. However the banks main problems of bad loans and misuse of senioremployeee perks, employee loans, medical benefits etc. were generally the responsibility of bad upper level management and union interference.While union interference has been stopped upper level management has not been pruned. The bank has since been plagued with lawsuits and the Nawaz govt has dithered on reinstating the employees as they have been generally shunned by other banks. It has caused a human problem with several people dying on being fired and falling ill. The banks president a political appointee who is the son of a major PMLn politician has also been severely criticised for his huge pay package. The banks president had stated that the bank would go bankrupt if the employees had not been fired. However it is the general impression that firing people whose monthly salary averaged around $300 would not save the bank or improve its performance. The govt has used the downsizing to get a loan of $250million from the world bank.
The Nawaz Sharif govt has refused to remove the Sind Rangers (paramilitary organisation initially used to patrol the border with India) from karachi which had been requested by its ally the MQMa . The MQMa request to mount an operation against its rival MQMh has also apparently been turned down.
In the NWFP the ANP(an ally of the govt) legislators and the opposition marched to the governor house in protest at the kidnapping of their MPA who was allegedly involved in smuggling antiques from afghanistan. The ANP however said it was not an indication of noconfidence in the Mahtab(PMLn ) provincial govt.
The acting CJ Ajmal Mian has appointed a judge of the Supreme Court to axamine the steps taken by the govt against those responsible for the assault on the Supreme Court. The attack apparently was organised by the PMLn. The negative public reactions forced the govt to arrest some of its supporters. However they were later released, garlanded and taken in a parade to their homes. The opposition PPP has protested the govts leniency in the matter and pointed to the negative consequences which will arise from letting of those who organised and participated in the assault.
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Added on 14.12.1997
An NWFP MPA was kidnapped and is being held for ransom.
The rupee fell by paisa 100 to 45.75 vis a vis the dollar which is a record.
Altaf Hussein and his secretary have been pinpointed by the murderer as having ordered the murders of two american diplomats last year.
491 were killed in Karachi during the last ten months of the Nawaz-MQMa-ANP era while only 201 were killed in Benazirs last ten months in office. Most of those killed belonged to the MQMa and MQMh(205), Sunnis/Shiites(83),Suspected terrorists(48), Army/Police(41), innocent citizens(?)(123). Pretty hairraising statistics compiled by the Daily News.
A court was attacked in Faisalabad by lathi carrying goons. The attack on the Supreme Court by the PMLn is going to have long lasting negative consequences.
Illahi Baksh Soomru who is being considered for president has apparently referred to present day parliamentarians as ANGOOTHA CHAPP MEANING ILLITERATE!!! He also said that they were incapable of serving the masses ie the people
Ghinwa Bhutto in a STN interview said that the people of Pakistan have no civil sense
(Original Content Dateline12.12.1997)
The secretary defence Lt. Gen(retd) Iftikhar has denied an earlier statement in which he had stated that the army chief is following the orders of the prime minister. He now says that things are very different from earlier times. It must be remembered that the army had openly participated in all earlier removals of elected leaderships.
The MQMa is nurturing the khakis and the greens of Islamabad says the powerless Maqbool Siddiqui(Minister for Industries)
The ANP president Ajmal Khattak has met Benazir Bhutto in what maybe a start to possible future allignments. It must be remembered that the PMLn used Ajmal Khattak as its initial emissary when they worked on Leghari for the removal of Benazirs govt.
The ANP and PMLn which have a love-hate relationship seem to be at odds again...In the NA yesterday Asfandyar Wali blew up (mostly out of habit) when the PMLn called them "friends of hindus and the congress". The PMLn wants a difference in status between heros of the pakistan movement and the hero(there wer'nt many) of the independence movement. The ANP's forefathers were allied with the hindu dominated Congress in pre Pakistan days. Some say that the Bacha family were actually servants of the Ghandis and were funded by Indian sources upto recent times. The decline of the Ghandis in India and domination of Afghanistan by islamists has forced the ANP into a loveless embrace with the PMLn. This coalition was initially forged during the martial law days when both supported Zia ul Haq.
The ANP and the PMLn clashed in the NWFP assembly on the renaming controversy. The ANP wants NWFP renamed as Puktunkhwa while the PMLn has historically opposed such a change. However when the resolution was moved in the NWFP assembly a few weeks ago the PMLn abstained and did not oppose the move. However a negative reaction in their base of Hazara and Southern NWFP has caused them to state openly that they oppose such a move. While Wali Khan has stated that nobodies father can now change the reality of Pukhtunhkwa(Ab kissi ka bab bi puktunkhwa ka nam nahin badal sakta). Probably a reference to Nawaz Sharifs father. The joke about it all is " That first they were pathans, than they became Pukhtuns and now they are Puktunkhwis". The PMLn however supports turning them into Ghandaris or Khyberis or Abasinis.One wonders what is the basis of the ANP-PMLn coalition when they differ on virtually everything.
The judges who opposed the CJ Sajjad Ali Shah are being attacked ruthlessly for their incompetence by Abdul Hafiz Pirzada who is acting as Sajjad's lawyer in a case against Sajjad's appointment as CJ being heard by a 10 judge panel. It is the basis of the defence that Supreme Court judges cannot stop each other from working.
The rupee has slid to Rs 46.30 against the dollar and is expected to slide further as rumours of a devaluation take hold. On the other hand the commerce minister says that trade has improved. Exports up by 7%, Imports down by 5%, trade imbalance down by 500 million etc. On the other hand the prime minister has stated that the overall economy is faring badly. Because of the impression that the PMLn is doing nothing the prime minister is moving to restart the Social Action Plan(very succesful during the Benazir govt) and other social sector programs in health and education.
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Added on 14.4.97
Wasim Sajjad seems tobe totally out of the race for the presidency while Sartaj Aziz and Illahi Baksh Soomru seem tobe leading contenders. Others being considered include Fida Mohammed Khan, Sahibzada Yaqoob, Fakhre Imam etc. There is a remote possibility that SHABAZ SHARIF might be under consideration too. Shahbaz has been acting as the parties problem solver and is usually consulted by Nawaz Sharif in difficult decisions. The other possibility is that Nawaz might move to the presidency while Shahbaz might become prime minister ???
Added on 12.12.1997
Doubts are emerging on whether Wasim Sajjad will get the PMLn nomination for president. The PMLn allies are expecting a nomination from their ranks or regions . Some other people are also being considered. They are Yusuf Haroon, Zaffrullah Jamali, Gul Aurangzeb and Jamilludin Aali(MQM). However Sartaj Aziz is said to be in the lead. Pmln is expected to make the nomination asap to nix declining ally support and negative political reactions.
Added on 7.12.1997
CJ Sajjad has rejected the assertion being propagated by the PMLn that he made any deal with leghari to topple Nawaz. The acting CJ refused to meet two PMLn ministers and urged other judges to do the same and maintain judicial discipline. It has also been decided to hear all the contempt cases in January by a five judge panel and it seems that the present judges will keep all laws in perspective. It has been reported in the press that Nawaz does not want a weathercock as president which suggests that the next president will be a mere rubber stamp. In that context the acting president Wasim Sajjad seems to be emerging as the PMLn first choice.
Added on 6.12.1997
The elections for the new president of pakistan(pop) will take place on the 31st of december and nominations will be made on the 16th. The frontrunners aare thought to be Sartaj Aziz, Wasim Sajjad, Illahi Baksh Soomru, Mahtab Abbasi , Ghous Ali Shah, Gohar Ayub and Nawaz Sharifs father. Most people think that the PMLn will probably nominate Sartaj Aziz who is acceptable to the west and generally regarded as close to Nawaz Sharif. Nawaz Sharif is also thinking of running the finance ministry himself as he says the economic performance is below expectations especially in the tax collection arena. Nawaz and the former pop have exchanged letters saying that their perceptions about the constitution and the judiciary are very different. While the Faruk has said he worked without antagonism, Nawaz has admited to being angry at Faruks attitude. Faruk had earlier accused Nawaz of attacking the SC building and attempting to create a prime ministerial dictatorship. It is being surmised that Faruk will probably form a new political party which will include old PPP walas and his other friends in the feudal and agricultural biradari. Such a party could pose a minor challenge to the PMLn as the PPP is still pretty dormant and inactive. The PPP breakaway factions could also supposedly join such a party. The army chief has denied ordering Faruk to resign and according to the ISPR Jehangir Keramat infact advised Faruk not to resign!!
Added on 5-12-1997
The race for the presidency seems to have narrowed down to two non ethnic(ie pathans who do push their pukhtunism) candidates from the NWFP ie Wasim Sajjad and Sartaj Aziz(acording to the press). Some say that Ghous Ali Shah is still in the race but many doubt it as he has a murky reputation. Wasim Sajjad is lagging behind Sartaj because he has made some doubtful pro corruption moves in the past. But he has supposedly met the ABBA(Nawaz Sharifs father)so many consider him the frontrunner. Some people had previously thought that Nawaz Sharif wanted to make his ABBA the president(sic). There seem to be no real candidates from the Punjab, Balochistan and Sind.
The focus on the Supreme Court has dimmed as the only case being heard is that of Sajjad Ali Shah's appointment. The constitution of the 10 judge panel has been challenged as it consists of judges who are all Sajjad Ali Shahs opponents. A judge who had moved the summary for Sajjad's appointment when he was law secretary is also on the panel. The judges seem to be learning the ropes as most of such proceedings were being handled by Sajjad Ali Shah upto now. With no depth of argument as there are several precedents when junior judges have been appointed CJ the case will probably be decided on personal and emotional leaning rather than any basis in law.
Added on 4-12-1997
The Nawaz govt has completed its objective of removing each and every PPP appointee from virtually all positions whether they be in important positions or other ordinary govt positions. The only PPP appointee to survive is the army chief Jehangir Keramat who can now literally be considered one of Nawaz Sharifs family as all his actions have benefited Nawaz. The govt notified a new Acting CJ and the case against the appointment Of Sajjad Ali Shah continued. The opponents to Sajjad Ali Shah do not have any realistic argument and it is generally considered that the case is being pursued because Sajjad Ali Shah is a PPP appointee and a Sindhi which runs counter to the north based Nawaz coalitions thinking. According to one newspaper Sajjad Ali Shah is reaching the age of 65 in Feb 1997 which makes him senior at least to Ajmal Mian who is two years younger. Also there is no bar in the constitution to the appointing of junior judges as CJ. Sajjjad Ali Shah has gone on leave as he was not allowed to carryout his normal duties.
Added on 3.12.1997
In a day(2.12.1997) of major developments the prime minister took over total control as previous attitudes crumbled. In fifty years of acrimonious politics it was usually the peoples representative that were kicked out in a power struggle. However Nawaz Sharif made the wise move of buying out the army chief before opening fronts with the president and the judiciary. King Nawaz has now replaced Kings Faruk, Sajjad and Jehangir.
The day started with CJ Sajjad Ali Shah reenacting the 8th amendment by suspending the 13th amendment. However the ten member rebel panel of judges immediately cancelled that order and declared all orders of the CJ as null and void. They than ordered the appointment of an acting CJ in the person of Ajmal Mian who immediately took over without even taking an oath and started issuing orders as the CJ. Nawaz Sharif sent a summary to the president to remove Sajjad Ali Shah but the president refused to comply. And after the COAS met the the president and the prime minister, Faruk Leghari resigned as president citing his refusal to corrupt the constitution. That ended another political crisis in the country. The only remaining point of interest left is whether the pro Nawaz judges maintain an interest in giving honest decisions or just become an appendage to the prime minister. Meaning that will they continue with the contempt case in line with the law or not. What will they do to the suspensions of the 14th amendment and will they kill the 13th amendment. With the 8th amendment no prime minister can survive very long. Methinks the judiciary too will follow the prime ministers orders which will be a total shame.
The acting president is Wasim Sajjad another Hazarite and son of a former judge. Wasim has an excelent education record and in politics is a survivor. He is generally regarded as a person who follows orders. He has the ability to get along with both sides despite being a staunch PMLn loyalist but might not be the eventual PMLn choice. Methinks the next president might be Nawaz Sharif himself but none of the newspapers has given that indication. The press has given many names which include Wali Khan(the indian of pakistani politics), Asfandyar Wali, Illahi Baksh Soomru, Ghous Ali Shah, Gohar Ayub(another Hazarite and son of a former coup leader and dictator) etc. It is possible that because of the difficulty in deciding on one person Wasim Sajjad might become a compromise candidate. In passing one must suggest that the Punjabis have slain all their opponents and there are very few non punjabis left in the govt heirarchy ie the important positions. Therefore it is thought that the next president might come from one of the three smaller provinces. Balochistan is the only province that has never tasted high office and in that vein Akber Bugti might be a remote possibility being an ally of the govt. People cite the lack of educational qualifications as a major stumbling block in Akber Bugtis quest. The remote possiblity is that the present army chief might be elevated.
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