Weather: Sunny spells, cool. 8.

Travel: Working unusual shifts, so out at 720. Train takes 30 minutes to travel, including a long stop just before Oldbury. Then the 833 to Longbridge runs almost 15 late - but is then fast.
Back is less hassle, with the Glasgow train a little late.

Have the unfortunate honour of meeting a few of Birmingham's loutish tendency. One of them thinks he's hard enough to mug me of my watch, but he's actually slightly less hard than a wet noodle.

Sara Lou :)
(although I have to say that although this speakout.com place is cool, they have links for Dr. Laura sche however you spell her lastname. ugh! I used to like her, but since she said that being gay is wrong and immoral, I don't like her much. ew)
Dr Laura Schlesinger (sp?), Dr Laura Schleichwig-Holstein, Dr Laura Sledging, Dr Ballot-Paper. Whoever she is, she's immoral. She's also been relegated to The Wee Small Hours, sharing overnight television with 983rd re-runs of "Monty Python", truck-pulling from Aarnhem, and a bunch of Scandinavian women with very little on.

ugh..well, I can only hope that the recounting does put Gore in as president!
I said yesterday that I'd have a look at the voting figures for an Electoral College elected by some form of proportional representation. Using the figures on CNN as of Saturday afternoon (UK time), the result is:
Republicans: 273
Democrats: 260
Greens: 5

I've also computed figures that allocate all the College votes proportionally, rather than reserving two for the largest single candidate. That gives
Rep: 264
Dem: 267
Gre: 7

State-by-state details, and a more detailed explanation.

The conclusion, though, is that this is one heck of a close race. And you don't need a maths degree to work *that* one out.

---

Jonathan Fischer:
Any state, even if only 10 people live there, gets three electoral votes (Automatic 2 Senators and 1 Representative.). California, even if it has a hundred times the population of Rhode Island, doesn't get 100 times as many electoral votes. So, yes, it does favor the small states in some ways. It does, unfortunately, also encourage candidates to concentrate their efforts on the bigger blocks of Electoral votes. I kind of liked the system you laid out, but would prefer to ignore the plurality option and just split the electoral votes the way they split. (i.e. no bonus for "winning".) Might decrease the recounts, might increase it. I don't know.
It would probably wind up increasing the actual numbers of recounts, especially in the larger states, as the difference between candidates can become quite small as the process winds on. On the other hand, we'd only be shifting one or two voters per state, rather than whole blocks of 25, so the recounts would only matter in a very tight race. Like this year's.

At the time of writing, CNN is reporting Florida, New Mexico, Iowa and Oregon are being disputed by one side or other. Under Pure d'Hondt, the method Jonathan prefers, Florida's 25th College vote is up for grabs; Iowa's 7th is also available; as are New Mexico's 5th and Oregon's 7th. If, for the sake of argument, Michegan (18 votes) changes from Democrat to Republican, it would have no effect - the two parties are already split 9-9.

It seems like that would make it even less likely that we would have a differing electoral and popular vote. Still possible, though....

With the recounts, the Republicans may lose one vote, but gain up to three others, so (at best) may lead 267-264. There's still no clear winner. There's still no overall majority. There's still no clear preference. That does seem to be the will of the people.

We would, however, *know* that no-one has a majority. This is an advance on the current situation. Those seven Green party electors suddenly look very powerful.

Might encourage candidates to campaign in more states, with the knowledge that those ones and twos add up. Might also just cause the candidates to do a pure media campaign. I don't think we'd ever really know for sure unless it happened.
There are lots of ifs and buts about. But those in small states with 6, 5, 4 votes can still influence the outcome. If one ticket takes 63% of the ballots in a 4-vote state, he will take *three* votes from that state, the opponent just one. The Democrats did that in Rhode Island. The similar figure for a 6-vote state is just 60%, as the Republicans managed in Kansas. Every vote counts, right across the country.

Whether that leads to a more locally focussed campaign, or a more central campaign, will depend on the candidate's strengths. Clearly, both styles could prove successful.

Weather: The odd sunny spell. Still cold. 7

Travel: Almost as bad as yesterday; the 0752 stopper to New Street suffers a 5 minute hold at Wolverhampton without any excuse, but then runs well, as does the 833 to Longbridge. Early enough to get the 1603 from Longbridge, 1636 to Manchester, 1703 (6 late) to Shrewsbury.

Lara Ruth:
I think the electoral college makes people in smaller states with fewer electoral college votes feel as if their vote is less significant than voters in states with more electoral votes, such as Florida. Obviously, each of their individual vote carries a lot of weight in the election, which I feel makes their vote count TOO much.
Someone will leap in and correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the point of the College was to give representation roughly proportionate to population. Small states by population have small representation; states with large populations have large representation.

If anything, the exact make-up of the College makes smaller states slightly over-represented, at the expense of the largest states.

If it weren't for the significance of their vote, we wouldn't be running around in circles trying to figure out who is going to receive the coveted position of President.
Ah, but suppose Florida (25 College votes) had clearly voted for the Republican ticket, and - for the sake of argument - Arkansas (6) had gone Republican by a tiny majority. Arkansas' six votes would swing the race. A small state has the power to elect the President.

For example, in the past, elections have been completely called without all states having even reported. How fair is that to people in those states? It's not fair for whole states to be able to be totally disregarded in this manner.
Yet this is going to happen under any system. Those who don't vote for the winner will effectively have their votes ignored, whether that's at a state, district, or personal level.

I feel every single vote should count with equal weight regardless of whether it is an "electoral giant" like California or Florida. I understand the initial reasoning of the electoral college but I believe it is definitely time for it to go.
As I understand it, that requires a constitutional amendment. Experience teaches that this is not something to attempt lightly. Maybe exploring the possibilities for reform would prove fruitful.

Weather: Foggy for most of the day, 6.

Travel: The 0635 goes AWOL, cancelled for No Adequately Explored Reason. Everything else runs pretty much to time, thankfully.

Jonathan Fischer, writing on Monday morning, Pacific time:
I really can't argue with either candidate's actions at this point
Ah, wasn't that such a sweet, innocent era. Almost two whole days ago. Before someone in Florida fell away from my personal view. While speed and closure would be desirable, it *must* be subservient to accuracy. Attempting to put a closing time on the count is ludicrous.

I recall the Irish election eight years ago, where one constituency had to go to four or five complete counts. As the Irish system uses the Single Transferable Vote, and elects around seven members per constituency, the whole process took about three weeks. The final member wasn't known when the Dail came to meet, but the remaining six members were able to take their seats without the formal declaration. Democracy ruled over petty rules.

I want to see come out of all of this is the will of the voters prevailing.
In which case, it appears to me that the election should be thrown to Congress. The people may have rejected both candidates, allowing the original Vice-Presidential candidates to come forward and step into the breach.

Heck, only allow those voters who had obviously mis-marked their ballots to re-vote if you want to prevent too many opportunists from entering in.
How would you prove who had spoiled their ballot? In Britain, the papers are numbered, in the event of a challenge, and it's possible (though really difficult) to trace a paper back to the voter. In Australia, I know the papers aren't numbered.

In an almost evenly split house and senate, few things are likely to make it through. What frightens me is what could happen to the Supreme Court.
A) I would expect that an evenly split House and Senate would make it difficult to force controversial measures through, including nominations to the Court.

B) Whatever happened to the concept of separating Judiciary and Executive? Socrates' grave must be like a merry-go-round.

Weather: Sunny early, cloudy later. 9.

Travel: Fewer problems, and no missing trains.

Camille, the handcuffs:

im 16/f/london England
You mean there's some Imposter London, Elsewhere? Such a lack of imagination in naming places. Next thing you know, they'll be prefixing venerable English place names with the word "New", just so we don't confuse the two. I forsee New Telford, New Leeds, New Newtown (where vacuum cleaners run wild down the high street). Would the people of York take well to a New version? Dunno.

and like all of you i guess i love mscl
Good. You'll have got the attempt at humour at the greeting.

i also like r&b,uk garage and other types of music
It's a start. You may find your horizons become inexplicably broader should you remain with us. (Go listen to Gretchen Peters.)

Anyway, welcome to us.

Weather: Cloudy, with the odd sunny spell. 10.

Travel: Again, the 0635 is OFF, thanks to "staffing shortages." Central Trains may wish to note that their weaknesses are their problem, and there is *no* excuse for making your their customers suffer. The 0719 Vermin crawls agonisingly slowly into the stations, and I miss the bus connection by a matter of moments. Bustards.

History is so much more interesting when it's accurate.

Allan:
Its a a bit of a mess the American election isn't it, In England in 1974 we had something similar, the vote between Ted Heath and Harold Wilson (Easily the worst British Prime Minister ever!)
That would be a matter of opinion, and it is easy to forget the Wilson government from 1964-70. It could be argued that the short-lived Heath government was an interloper in fifteen years of left-wing hegemony.

I think you also forget George Canning, PM for 103 disaster-filled days in 1827. Though not without good reason, I admit (:

In England in 1974 we had something similar, the vote between Ted Heath and Harold Wilson was too close to decide a parliament
Actually, that was a very good election, from a psephologist's point of view. Heath went to the country in February, which is a bad idea in the first place, being in the days when winters were *cold* winters. He asked the question: "Who runs Britain?", and the country answered, "If you have to ask, it ain't you, mate. Go spend more time with your boat."

The third party Liberals got a 13% share of the vote, their highest since the 1930s. Nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales also profited, as people protested at the lack of choice between the two major parties. (We're playing Spot The Parallel. No prizes, it's just for fun.)

Wilson formed a minority government, which lasted less than eight months.

a second election had to take place and Wilson won
Or, to be exact, failed to quite lose, at least as badly as he had in February. The Labour party had an overall majority of three - it had three more members than all the opposition parties combined. It wouldn't prove enough to last when one considers deaths in office.

For comparison, Major's overall majority in the 1992 election was 21, which would have been reduced to a low point of 5 had he not suffered three defections from his party's ranks. He did, and had an OM of -1 for a few weeks.

and took us into a period of strikes, civil unrest
No, that was Teethy. (Heath.) The February election had been precipitated by coal miners, ship workers, power workers and many essential services going on strike. They wanted to be freed from the then-popular idea that inflation could be kept under control if wages increases were kept to a minimum. The Heath Conservative government had continued the previous Labour administration's policy of legislating an incomes policy, and now found that it didn't work.

and an inflation rate around 30 % before retiring!
Again, that was a left-over from the previous mob, especially chancellor Samuel "Chancer" Barber. He had stoked the economy strongly during the early part of 1973, preparing for an election the following year. Unexpectedly, the oil price went through the roof following the Yom Kippur War that autumn, and led to the economy getting totally out of control.

Then came Mrs Thatcher...................
The Iron Lady had become Leader of the Opposition almost 18 months before Wilson's resignation. He was directly followed by James Callaghan, who was the man in charge when the Socialist Revolution tried to take place in 1978-9. It failed, the grocer's daughter came into power, seemingly never to leave. Until, that is, November 22, 1990. Ten years ago next Wednesday.

To complete the circle, I wonder if any of the candidates in the US election will echo Lady Thatcher's ill-judged remarks of a few nights earlier. She had narrowly failed to achieve an outright victory, and offered this pledge: "I fight on; I fight to win."

Goodbye.

Weather: Cold, and cloudy. 9.

Football: David Beckham's free kick from 35 metres just 95 seconds into the match gave Manchester United a 1-0 victory over cross-town rival Manchester City.
The victory moved Manchester United five points ahead of second-place Arsenal, which was upset 2-0 at Everton in the season's biggest upset so far.
Southampton's James Beattie scored twice - he has five in the last three matches - for the 2-0 victory over Aston Villa.
West Ham, with a first-half goal from Nigel Winterburn, used a stout defence to beat Leeds 1-0, which faces Real Madrid next week in the European League.

Chelsea's dive continued, losing 2-0 at Charlton. The Blues have not won an away match since April and have only three wins in 10 under new Italian coach Claudio Ranieri, hired two months ago to replace fired Gianluca Vialli.
In the day's other derby match, Sunderland got its 2-1 victory at neighbouring Newcastle on a late header by Niall Quinn. Alan Shearer failed minutes later to covert a penalty that would have given the Magpies a draw.
Derby got its first victory of the season beating last-place Bradford 2-0, which has just five goals this season.
The woes continued for Middlesbrough manager Bryan Robson as the northern England side dropped its seventh straight, 3-0, with Leicester moving into third place with the victory.
On Sunday, Spurs recover from 1-0 down to beat Liverpool, 2-1. Ipswich beat Coventry 1-0 in MNF.

The points: first-place Manchester United improve to 33 points, Arsenal at 28 followed by Leicester (26) and Liverpool (24).
The ladder shows MUN extend its lead to 66 points, with 1163 to Arsenal's 1097. Leicester is third (1056), followed by Villa (1048) and Liverpool (1040). Bradford remains rooted to the foot (855), with Middlesborough (908), Coventry (910) and Man City (910) jostling for the remaining places.

Jaeda:
it's wonderful...
It sounds like it, too. I'm so glad you've finally found someone who does that. You deserve it.

she wants us to eventually more to New Zealand for some odd reason...i'm not too familiar with it, but what the hell you know?
Do we have anyone here from New Zealand? Anyone? Anyone at all? Speak now, explain why two Texans should come to your part of the world.

I met her 4 years ago actually thru my ex-husband...
What a sweetie. Don't shoot me for saying this, but he may actually have done something useful for once. Maybe.

oh and her mom invited me to Thanksgiving dinner! yay!
It's serious. Meeting the parents is *serious*. And yay you!

[hugs]

Weather: Heavy showers, bright spells. 8

chelle (who just has to poke her head above the parapet right now to get [hugs]):

i got this from an *american* friend of mine and it made me snicker. thought it would be well appreciated here ... maybe? hehe.
***NOTICE OF REVOCATION OF INDEPENDENCE***
It's been doing the rounds, and I had been toying with the idea of sending it through myself. However, this lets me add a bit of commentary.

Except Utah, which she does not fancy.
This is actually not correct. The Queen does quite like Utah. It's Carolina (North) she objects to, on the grounds that it is named after her least favourite son. And the Northern part looks too much like his big ears.

Your new prime minister (The rt. hon. Tony Blair, MP)
This is where I start thinking that it's a fate worse than death. We wouldn't impose St Tony on anyone, even if he could walk direct from London to New Amsterdam.

No, we should send over someone you know and love. Someone whom we may have found a use for once, but now can live without. Someone who can get countries in one hell of a mess into an even worse mess. Baroness Thatcher, can we interest you in a trip across the Atlantic?

5. You should relearn your original national anthem, "God Save The Queen".
To assist in this endeavour, here are the words.
# God save our gracious Queen
# Long live our noble Queen
# God save the Queen.
# Send her victorious
# Happy and glorious
# Long to reign over us
# God save the Queen. #

Though if anyone can come up with a better national anthem, please speak now. The old one is too blinkin' turgid.

6. You should stop playing American "football".
No, carry on playing NFL-ball. So long as you call it NFL-ball. With the Maryland Indigenous Native Persons, and New Jersey A, and New Jersey B, and the Dixie Chicks, and the Bungles (ctd Tuesday morning.)

Initially, it would be best if you played with the girls. It is a difficult game.
And one at which the US girlies' team does appear to be rather good. Far better than the English girlies, as Wednesday's loss in Italy showed.

8. July 4th is no longer a public holiday.
The Queen's official birthday will move to July 1, which will be a holiday throughout the Commonwealth. Canada will take an extra holiday on June 24, to be known as Cabot Day.

10. Please tell us who killed JFK. It's been driving us crazy.
You mean you don't know who it was? LOL! As *everyone* knows, it was
[An MI5 spook writes: I'm not here. Ignore me.]

The Charts

#1 NEW Leann Rimes - Can't Fight The Moonlight
#2  #1 Baja Men - Who Let The Dogs Out
#3 NEW Daft Punk - One More Time
#4  #2 Ricky Martin - She Bangs
#5  #4 Backstreet Boys - Shape Of My Heart
...also new...
#6 Artful Dodger - Please Don't Turn Me On
18 Darrude - Feel The Beat
20 Wu-Tang Clan - Gravel Pit
23 Toploader - Dancing In The Moonlight
 (re-release of March #26)
30 Savage Garden - Hold Me
...climbing...
#8 13 Madonna - Music
 (reduced price in week 14)
14 15 Offspring - Original Prankster
27 31 Destiny's Child - Independent Woman I
35 38 Creed - With Arms Wide Open
...plummeting...
12 #3 Westlife - My Love
17 #7 A1 - Same Old Brand New You
24 10 Martine McCutcheon - I'm Over You
...imports...
33 37 Samantha Mumba - Gotta Tell You
 (#2 in July)
36 34 Barenaked Ladies - Pinch Me
 (UK release tomorrow)
39 42 N'Sync - This I Promise You
 (UK release tomorrow)