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It's All A Fix Labour spins itself into something of a panic, with a press release claiming that the BBC, ITN and SKY are ganging up on Labour to make them look foolish. The respected news media, with coverage of 34 elections between them, are apparently setting up people with microphones and hidden cameras, and trying to take the Michael out of senior Labour politicians. The media deny the allegations. Reports that this is because Labour is doing a fine job of making itself look like an ass are confirmed by all commentators everywhere.
No 50% rate Gordon Brown firmly denies that the upper earnings limit on National Insurance - a tax supposedly hypothecated to old age pensions - will be removed. Such a removal, predicted by the Tories on the basis of party promisies - would effectively give a 50% tax rate for higher-rate payers. "These are smears," retorts Gordon Brown (Lab, finance) before going off in a self-righteous huff. "This isn't good enough. It's not a denial," repeats Michael Portfolio (Con, finance.) Charles Kennedy (LD, leader) said that they would remove the cap, so there.
Look who's back! Mrs Margaret Thatcher (C leader 1975-90; Prime Minister 79-90) makes her first election appearance since 1987, speaking at a Conservative rally in Portsmouth. She makes a strident anti-EU speech, and praised the incumbent William Hague. "Europe should do less and do it better," says Hague.
It's been a day when Labour has been really, really nervy. Again. Their campaign is running into the buffers, and they're only making headway because the opposition has been looking so foolish. This may change, if the Conservative's strong anti-European message stikes a chord with voters.
PEB: Socialist Alliance A stultifyingly dull broadcast, that leaves even the most avid viewer asleep by the end. I genuinely cannot recall one development, just ten minutes on.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 405.5 | -0.5 |
| Conservative | 178.5 | -2 |
| Lib Dems | 46 | +0.75 |
| SNP | 8 | ----- |
| Overall Majority | 152 | -1 |
Slight selling of Labour after their storm up yesterday, but the bull market for the Lib Dems shows no sign of abating. The 46 seats projected now is exactly the same number the party won at the 1997 election.
Punch. Judy. Labour and the Tories seek to clobber each other over tax rises - while refusing to give firm pledges that they themselves, if elected, would not raise rates.
Gordon Brown was the first to come under pressure, once again, to guarantee not to raise National Insurance contributions, which the Tories have claimed will threaten millions if Labour wins on 7 June. Shadow chancellor Michael Portillo demanded a copper-bottomed promise from the Chancellor not to scrap the ceiling on employees' National Insurance contributions.
He failed to get it. But the Conservatives suddenly found the tables turned at their morning press conference when Mr Portillo and William Hague repeatedly refused to give an identical pledge from their side not to raise VAT.
Europe William Hague claims to have unearthed [1] an "explosive" [2] secret [3] document from the EU Commission [4] in Brussels planning to harmonise taxes across the EU.
[1] Published, like, publically, in January 2001.
[2] Working draft, now dropped.
[3] See [1].
[4] Socialist grouping submission to the EC.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled rant.
In addition to the lack of a factual basis, the Tory attack was further scuppered by continuing and open differences between Lady Thatcher, who last night reaffirmed that Britain should "never" abandon the pound, and official Conservative policy which is to rule out joining the euro for the next five-year parliament only. After fending off repeated questions over a split, Mr Hague politely but firmly disowned his predecessor, saying: "We are standing for election. We set the policy. We are a grandmother."
Blair will take up the challenge over the euro later this week with what aides are billing as his most important speech of the campaign so far, arguing that true patriotism lies in being fully engaged in Europe. He is likely to claim that while Gordon Brown's five economic tests must be met first, ditching the pound for the euro could be a patriotic move if economic conditions are right.
PEB: Labour's 2nd Time to get negative, in a spoof cinema trailer. Economic Disaster II, the sequel to the Conservatives' recession of 89-93. 3 million unemployed. 2 million in negative equity. 1000 businesses closing each week. 400,000 lost their homes. It was bad. You can avoid it. Vote for us.
This is very stylish, very well made, and an excellent view. It's a shame the facts aren't there to back up the more outlandish claims. The recession only began in 1990 Q2, briefly ended in 1992 Q1, and ended for good in 1992 Q4. According to official statistics, there never actually were 3 million claimants in that recession; figures peaked over 2,950,000 in the first two months of 1993, but never actually topped 3 million. That was in the 80s recession, which isn't the subject of this PEB. Negative equity was primarily caused by the closure in 1988 of a loophole in the law, allowing unmarried couples double the mortgage tax relief of a married couple. Under Labour, mortgage tax relief has become a thing of the past.
More tellingly, we're not told why the economy went so far down. Part of it was mismanagement by Nigel Lawson between 87 and 89; a lot of it was due to the strictures of UK membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism - an informal version of the Euro. German unification put a great strain on that country's economy, forcing high interest rates. As the pound, like other European currencies, was linked to the Deutsche Mark in a semi-fixed system, this meant UK rates had to remain higher than they ought to be. Labour is proposing to resurrect this fixed exchange rate spectre.
And finally. This would have been an apposite broadcast for the 1992 campaign, with the country still mired in the recession. This would not have been out of place in 97, with the architects of the recession still in office. For this campaign, it feels like someone's dredging up the past to avoid the present.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 405 | -0.5 |
| Conservative | 179 | +0.5 |
| Lib Dems | 46.25 | +0.25 |
| SNP | 8 | ----- |
| Overall Majority | 153 | +1 |
Just for once, very little change indeed.
Tony Blair is at Glamorgan uni. A student accosts him and asks awkward questions about student funding. Blair says that his government has expanded university funding more than any other, and there's no way of providing cost_free education. "It’s a privilege to go to university. Graduates earn 30%, 40% more, and you should be grateful."
William Hague addresses a rowdy crowd in Bristol, pledging to reduce tax and increase quality.
Chuck Kennedy is accused of sucking up to public sector workers, not challenging them to raise their standards. Chuck says he's front-loading investment, and that will raise standards.
Labour unveils the largest election ad ever, a barge on the river Thames.
All three leaders are in Bristol; the first time their paths have converged in this way.
Through my letterbox drop two contrasting communiques. One is from the socialist party, fighting for a real challenge to nu labour & the Tories. It’s an A3 newsprint document, looking like the infamous socialist worker rag.
Candidate Clive: "all we have seen is a continuation of Tory policies. And like the Tories, new labour is for millionaires. But a socialist MP will be a voice to represent the millions of ordinary people."
He’s strong on saving the sally oak and qe hospitals, which, apparently, will be sold off by nu lab. he claims (or the document, which look like it's a national circular, claims) labour has cut services to the bone put profit before lives, ended free education, sold off young people's futures, left pensioners on the breadline, destroyed the environment. None of these claims is proven. Many are not accurate.The other is from the conservative party. Their candidate will provide a real voice for the constituency. He will promote the constituency's interests, fight crime, lower taxes, bring the best health and education services, and keep the pound. Labour has let you down, claims the only black box in a white and blue layout. This looks like a moderate, standard issue Tory candidate.
PEB2 An Asian kid on her bed, thinking about school. Pictures of an empty school, and kids setting a car ablaze, robbing a shop, dealing drugs, grafitti. Mournful music ends, Conservative promises of targetted funding.
Cut to news of the economy slowing down, fishing boats tied up, interest rates up though business doesn't like it, energy tax, red tape, the pound as a museum piece. We'll be in Europe, not run by Europe.
Not quite as negative as last night's Labour push, but pretty darned bad all the same. A nightmare vision, perhaps. But how many schools are actually sending children to roam the streets all day? Er, none. There aren't quite so many hard facts about the Europe thing, which could be a bigger winner.
Comment: Evening Standard
Not all the torrent of words from the rival parties is hot air. It is now plain that Labour as well as Conservatives recognise that simply throwing money at health will not solve the problems of the NHS. New methods must be tried. Public health care must tap the resources of private medicine, if we are ever to match the standards that prevail in several continental countries.
In education, new ideas have seeped through the morass of repetition, not least the proposal from the National Association of Head Teachers for pupils to adopt a course at 14 targeted towards an exam at 19. Labour's education policies show an increasing trend towards a German-style system of selection by aptitude at 14. The party's refusal frankly to acknowledge the importance of educational selection, despite overwhelming evidence, has been one of its yawning hypocrisies. It will be welcome if the next Education Secretary at last discards it.
The election tax debate has been as disingenuous as usual. Any member of the public who looks for a few minutes at the graphs and figures presented by newspapers and television can understand that the 'row' between Tories and Labour is almost meaningless. Both parties know that the nation badly wants better public services, which must be paid for. Even the most radical Tory Chancellor could do more than shave a few pennies off our tax bills, especially if Mr Michael Portillo ever had the chance to implement his shamelessly cynical proposal to cut fuel taxes.
The election debate on the euro has laid bare Tory equivocation: ignoring the foamings of Lady Thatcher, every responsible Conservative finds himself forced to leave an escape hatch for Britain's eventual entry into the single currency, if economic circumstances demand this. For such nuggets of realism among all the blather and fibbing, every voter should be suitably grateful.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 408.5 | +3.5 |
| Conservative | 175 | -4 |
| Lib Dems | 46.75 | +0.5 |
| SNP | 8 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 158 | +5 |
A strong showing by Labour in opinion polls translates into yet another surge of support. The party is now within ten seats of the 417 it won last time. And another climb for the Lib Dems.
It's Europe Day Tony Blair says that it's patriotic to be part of Europe. "To stand up for Britain in the modern world means to be an active, engaged partner in the alliances of which we are a member." William Hague says that the Tories are the only party that will keep the pound. "You can vote Labour or Lib Dem and scrap the pound. Only the Conservatives will keep it."
This is a risky strategy from Blair. He's saying that this is a historic choice, like the 1975 referendum to remain in the EEC, as was. But the electorate may well be irritated by this. Blair is suggesting that you either have to go with Europe, or leave it. The Tories may be offering a more respectable third way; part of Europe, and shaping policies according to their principles.
Also, Blair suggests by implication that it would be unpatriotic to suggest Britain leaves the EU. So, what was Blair's policy at the Beaconsfield by-election in 1982, and the 1983 election? Er, leaving the EEC. In 1986, he was against joining the ERM; in 1989, all for it. In 1992, he was a passionate European; by 1997, "there is a strong emotional tie to the pound which I fully understand."
PEB 2 Again, starting with a karaoke version of "New Beginning." It's Chuck Kennedy again, talking about how bad the two other parties are at running the health service. "Two years to the operating table," says one patient. We'll provide lots of new nurses. And pensioners, let down by The Other Two. "It's really hard when you're a pensioner." We'll give lots and lots of money for the old, and long-term care. And crime, recruit more police. Duh.
All very well put forward, all well costed. Not sure about the long-term viability of giving huge amounts to pensioners forever, but this can be re-worked over the next few dozen years.
An experiment showed that voters would rather watch paint dry than hear about the general election. 5 News tested the pulse rate and blood pressure of six people, who had a consistently higher pulse rate while observing paint.
Opt-out clause Francis Maude (C, foreign) says that he and William Hague will travel to Goteburg on June 15 and insist on a "renegotiation" of the Treaty of Nice. To be exact, they would repudiate Nice as it now stands. Never mind that the treaty was extensively debated before final agreement was reached. Never mind that all the other members of the European Union have already ratified the treaty or are about to do so. The Tories would adopt the advice of worried mothers and "just say no". The mere discussion of such a thing will delight many people who have given up hope that Britain might ever again assert its independence in Europe.
Maude's approach represents a significant change. It has become the norm that one may earnestly try to modify a treaty here or there; it is not done to try to arrest the flow of the all-powerful, swirling river that leads to greater integration. Maude goes further, stating a requirement for a "flexibility clause" so that countries need not participate in new EU laws if they don't like them.
Tony Blair will say today that the logical consequence of the Tory approach is that Britain would head for the "exit door" of the EU. This is arrant nonsense. The EU is an agreement framed by treaties. By agreeing to one treaty, no country obliges itself to sign further treaties. Britain has agreed to Rome and Maastricht. That does not mean that she has to accept Nice, or any other treaty that is not to her taste. Indeed, one of the reasons why it would be absolutely right to reject Nice as it stands is that it takes away her discretion in future to accept or reject many decisions that other EU governments might wish to impose. If she chooses to reject this treaty, it will not invalidate the previous ones. It would not mean leaving the EU at all.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 406 | -2.5 |
| Conservative | 175.5 | +0.5 |
| Lib Dems | 47.25 | +0.5 |
| SNP | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| Overall Majority | 158 | -- |
Labour finally takes a slight fall, reversing a little of the rise sice last weekend. The SNP moves, down; the Lib Dems move up yet again.
Sixteen Hours To Save The Earth William Hague unveils a giant clock which will count down the time he says Britain has left to save the pound. Conservatives are out in force across the country with Keep The Pound rallies in 170 key seats.
ISIHAC Michael Portillo (C, finance) admits the Conservatives do not know the full costs of their policy on higher education funding, which university leaders say could cost over 30 times the proposed initial sum. The shadow chancellor refused to put a figure on the total cost of giving universities endowments to replace state funds.
Pressed to clarify the sums, he said: "It is going to be a very large amount of money, but very large amounts of money are available, and not all universities will apply." The plan was questioned by vice chancellors and attacked by lecturing unions as "ill thought-out and ill-conceived".
The Conservatives want to tackle the shortfall in higher education funding by handing institutions one-off lump sums which would be invested. Universities would be run on the income, but would no longer receive government grants. The party would raise the endowment money by selling student loan debt to the private sector, raising £3.5bn initially and a further £1.6bn each year, plus sales of other assets such as analogue wavebands.
Universities UK, which represents higher education institutions, estimates the full cost of endowing all 90 UK universities at £101bn, as well as stressing that current higher education funding is £900m a year too low.
Elfin Labour is holding rally events on health. Tony Blair and senior cabinet members are being joined by sporting and celebrity supporters to push the message: "Vote for the NHS". The rallies highlight what they say will be £20 billion in cuts the Tories would make to public services and show Labour is the party of the NHS.
Education ^3 Tuition fees are the main theme of the day for the Liberal Democrats as home affairs spokesman Simon Hughes and higher education spokesman Evan Harris hold an audience with around 200 students in London.
It's my party Multi-millionaire Yorkshire businessman Paul Sykes, who bankrolled Eurosceptic Tories at the last election, has in effect bought the UK Independence party for an undisclosed sum, believed to be in the vicinity of 5.7 pence. Sykes told the UKIP's national election rally in central London that he could not predict how much he would spend promoting the party he had just joined. "Tell me the price of democracy," he said.
Rumours that Tory Eurosceptic Teresa Gorman (C, Billericay, ret) was to join the UKIP proved ill-founded. Despite heavy hints from the UKIP leadership, Gorman - who is not standing again for parliament - failed to appear at the rally. Later she put out a statement saying that she had retired from politics and would not be joining any other party. UKIP officials, who last month were hoping she would announce her defection before parliament broke up for the election, were privately furious that their biggest name had let them down.
Sykes spent more than £1m at the last general election supporting Conservative candidates who defied party policy and ruled out ever joining the single currency, and as late as last November was in talks with the Tories. When William Hague refused to go beyond ruling out the euro for the life of the next parliament, Sykes withdrew his offer of support. "I'll spend as much as it takes to get the message across," he said yesterday. "We've been spending between £50,000 and £100,000 a day so far. We'll have to see how it goes."
PEB: Scottish Nationalists Quotes of how life in Scotland has been run down under the government. Thoroughly negative stuff. Then loud members protesting, interspersed with people saying "shout" to an upbeat tune, cutting with more negative headlines. Then the broadcast runs out of steam, and recycles these images again. Link: www.snp.org
The burning question for any PEB: what do we stand for? Protesting at the government. What will we do about it? Er, dunno. Why are we better than them? Er, pass.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 404 | -2 |
| Conservative | 177 | +1.5 |
| Lib Dems | 48 | +0.75 |
| SNP | 7.5 | ---- |
| Overall Majority | 152 | -6 |
Another day slipping for Labour, mostly going to the Tories. But the Lib Dems continue to climb yet again.
Politician Admits Error Sensation! Mo Mowlam (Lab, cabinet office) admits that abolishing of student grants and introducing tuition fees was "one of things we shouldn't have done". Her comments, made during a visit to her old school in Coventry last week, will infuriate colleagues, especially as Labour plans to put education at the centre of the election campaign. She understands the "frustration" of many youngsters and accepts that the policy had deterred some from taking a degree.
On the campaign trail last week, the Prime Minister defended the grants policy, telling a student who harangued him: "You want a classless society. How can you get that when only the rich can go to university. If we didn't change the system of student finance, then the universities themselves would be charging fees."
Dr Mowlam, who is retiring from the Commons, made her remarks to a group of sixth-formers at Coundon Court school, in Coventry, where she was once head girl. She asked them to list 10 of Labour's policy achievements, but, when a boy mentioned the abolition of students grants, she said: "That's one of things we shouldn't have done." She returned to the subject, adding: "I have some idea of the frustration among you. I have a teenage stepdaughter doing her A-levels now. I don't have a breakfast without getting nagged on it."
Ministers will be annoyed because Dr Mowlam had given private assurances that she would not criticise the Government until after the election. Her words will hearten traditional Labour supporters, who have always been ashamed of the controversial decision, taken by Mr Blair in 1997, to abolish maintenance grants and introduce £1,000-a-year tuition fees. They argue that the likelihood of leaving university with debts of more than £10,000 would deter youngsters from poorer backgrounds.
PEB: Labour's 3rd Tony Blair: The Movie. He promises to leave politics as soon as he has no further purpose. He's an optimist. He's pictured with kids. Looking at old pictures of himself. Creating jobs, and walking round in an orange boiler suit and hard hat. There's never been a radical, reforming government that's done it in four years. Education remains the #1 priority. Cheering crowds for "Tony". He's proud of what he's done. There's no background music at all. Caption: the work goes on.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 404.5 | +0.5 |
| Conservative | 176.5 | -0.5 |
| Lib Dems | 48 | ---- |
| SNP | 7.5 | ---- |
| Overall Majority | 152 | -- |
Heckle the PM Tony Blair (Lab, Sedgefield) faces barracking by Keep the Pound and fuel duty protesters during a General Election campaign event in his own constituency. The protesters make their presence felt as Blair attended a fete at the Trimdon Grange Community Centre in Sedgefield. Blair, accompanied on the visit by his wife Cherie and his eldest son Euan, was touring the attractions when the protesters struck up a series of chants.
Demonstrating against Blair includes a handful of UKIP members, Keep the Pound protesters and members of the People's Fuel Lobby. Prominent is Andrew Spence, the UKIP candidate standing against Mr Blair in Sedgefield: "Fuel duties will be the death knell of another industry, it's crippling the hauliers. I wanted to debate with Mr Blair, but he's obviously running scared. If he doesn't debate with us he will have the fuel protests back," said Mr Spence.
The Euro Isn't Free The Tories continue their focus on the euro, claiming Labour would rig a referendum on the single currency and cost the country around £36bn in adopting the euro. Michael Portillo (C, finance) tells the Tories' election news conference: "If Labour were to win on June 7, Blair would start abolishing the pound on June 8." Portillo claimed that the changeover cost could be as much as £36bn - the equivalent of £1,500 for every household in the country. "People should be very, very wary of being offered a referendum by a Labour government because it is perfectly clear that the Labour government intends to rig the referendum."
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 407 | +2.5 |
| Conservative | 174.5 | -2 |
| Lib Dems | 47.25 | -0.75 |
| SNP | 7.5 | ---- |
| Overall Majority | 157 | +5 |
The small news is that Labour has now regained most of its losses from before the weekend. The big news is that the Lib Dems are *finally* topping out.
Fools rush in... EU president Romano Prodi makes one of the most ill-timed interventions imaginable, suggesting that there could be a need for a new EU tax, raising up to £60 billion for the Commission. This would, apparently, pay for a "significant government" for Europe, concerning tax, crime, and social security. This is exactly the kind of proposal that is manna from heaven for the Conservatives, and William Hague wastes no time in slamming the idea as unworkable. Labour is very quiet, holding its head in its hands, as it were. Hague is able to proclaim with vigour that there's now "Nine Days To Save The Pound!" And that he will continue to fight to save the currency should (er) he actually lose the election. No chance, surely!
Level playing field The Tories say that a re-elected Labour government try to "rig" the Euro referendum unless voters are asked a fair question. Francis Maude (C, foreign) said voters should simply be asked: "The government propose [sic] that the pound should be replaced as Britain's national currency by the euro. Do you agree?"
His proposed question was designed to highlight Tory claims that Labour is determined to scrap the pound at all costs by "rigging" a referendum. Maude claimed that Labour would like to hold a "discretionary" referendum in which voters would be asked to give the government a mandate to negotiate British membership of the euro at an unspecified date.
A suggestion over the weekend by Robin Cook (Lab, foreign) that voters should be asked a simple yes or no question on whether Britain should join the euro was dismissed by Maude. "For the question to be fair, it has got to talk about the choice between having the pound as our national currency and having the euro as our national currency."
Jeers Tony Blair is jeered on a tour of Microsoft factories in Reading. He also speaks to a group of big businessmen, saying nothing interesting. Labour unveils its latest advertising campaign depicting Hague's face superimposed on a picture of Lady Thatcher. It's apparently designed to portray Hague as incapable of forming a vision of his own and relying on the former Conservative premier's outdated legacy.
Childcare Chuck Kennedy is at a nursery, and frightens the children. He also tours an egg factory, and looks dashing in a white coat and hat.
PPB 3: Lib Dems Usual beginning. And look! It's that Kennedy man again! Education, in a class of 33 is not helping. Didn't Labour promise classes of 30? Well yes, but not for those over 7. Transport. "*Tory* rail privatisation." A commuter who is late, standing, unclean. Tougher regulation is our solution. Students, tuition fees weren't part of Tony's pledges, but he brought them in. "It's a deterrent to go to university." Lib Dems are set to win more seats and votes, apparently. And off to www.libdems.org.uk.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 411.5 | +4.5 |
| Conservative | 170 | -4.5 |
| Lib Dems | 49 | +1.75 |
| SNP | 7.25 | -0.25 |
| Overall Majority | 164 | +7 |
Well, it was only a blip for the Lib Dems. Labour also reaches another New High for this campaign, losing just 7.5 seats from the last election. The Tories are up five.