Election 2001, Page 4
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May 30
A minor Conservative former minister defects to the Liberal Democrats. John Lee, a minister towards the end of Thatcher's regime, and who lost his seat in 1992, says the Tories are the party of the past, and the Lib Dems the party of the future.
William Hague is campaigning in Scotland today, throwing rugby balls about and shouting to everyone who will listen about keeping the pound. A simple message, from a simple man.
Lord Bell, head of the Keep the Pound campaign, has been urging all Eurosceptic groups to unite under one banner to defeat a Labour referendum campaign. He set out details of his preferred campaign strategy at a meeting with the Bruges Group on May 15, five days after the launch of the Conservative manifesto. The Lord told the meeting: "We have no chance of winning a referendum on the single currency unless we get the disparate groups together into one camp: the Bruges Group, the Conservative Party's Keep the Pound Campaign, Business for Sterling, and New Europe."
He insisted that the campaign had to be warm, positive and emotional, suggesting a slogan of "We love the pound" with happy smiling faces. Bell also said that "we have most newspapers on our side at the moment, but they will be tempted to draw away. The issue we need to win the argument on is the single currency. The single currency is a watershed. We cannot win the argument about pulling out of the EU".
Gordon Brown (Lab, finance) has again declined to say whether people would be told the proposed rate of exchange before they voted in a referendum. His Conservative equivalent, Michael Portillo, wrote asking whether "you would be happy to take Britain into euro at the present exchange rate, or whether you will devalue sterling in advance of any referendum".
Sam Younger, chair of the Electoral Commission, concedes that he only has legal powers to pronounce on the intelligibility of the referendum question, and not its fairness. He added: "I think it is inconceivable, given the public attention on it, that we would not comment about fairness."
Tony Blair's in the West Midlands, giving a "more right-wing than thou" speech about the yob culture. Easy pickings, but this is something that Labour campaigned on last time. Blair still needs to campaign to get people to turn out; a low turnout is likely to hit his party far harder than any other, and apathy is more his enemy than anyone else's.
Chuck Kennedy's been on the M4 and meeting Honor Blackman. Healthcare and the elderly is today's focus, with the state paying for long-term care. There's an undercurrent that the Lib Dems are presenting themselves as the "effective opposition" - still in third place in votes and seats, but rising where the Tories are falling.
PEB: No New Ideas A repeat of the party's shot from last week.
Today's State Of The Parties: Tory Net Loss Now Predicted!
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 414.5 | +3 |
| Conservative | 163 | -7 |
| Lib Dems | 51 | +2 |
| SNP | 7.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 170 | +6 |
It was only in the last week of the 97 election that Labour's overall majority suddenly reared out of the 65-85 range it had been in for over a year, and started running up the hill. I'm seeing something similar for the Tories, who have now lost a dozen seats in two days. Labour is now just 4.5 seats below its position last time; the Tories are down 4; Lib Dems are up 5 *already*. At this rate, Kennedy's prediction (above) looks a little pessimistic.
May 31
Frantic attempts Labour promises debt relief for developing nations. Gordon Brown (Finance) adds to the pressure on leading pharmaceutical companies to cut the price of drugs for treating diseases like AIDS, malaria and TB in the world's poorest companies. Brown calls for a two-tier pricing policy with "deep cuts" to help developing nations and outlined plans for new tax incentives to accelerate research. "Such a proposal must be met by a commitment from pharmaceutical companies to create new drugs and vaccines in ways that truly help the poor and the sick." The relevance of this to regular government policy was not made clear.
Labour starts a seven-day "crusade" to persuade voters to come out on June 7 and support the government's plans for schools and hospitals. Blair unveiled a campaign poster featuring a sticky note: "Urgent reminder: Vote for schools and hospitals next Thursday."
Still frantic The Tories accuse the chancellor of planning to introduce stealth taxes on child benefit in 2003 and to increase national insurance contributions for people who earn over £30,000 a year. David Willetts (Benefits) "His plans to introduce an integrated child credit in 2003 provide him with an opportunity finally to do what he has long wanted. The integrated child credit will be a new means tested benefit for families and offers an ideal opportunity to means test or tax child benefit at the same time."
Punditocracy One of Tony Blair's favourite warnings is that this is not a choice between the current Labour government and the Labour government of their dreams: the choice is between him and the Tories. If you don't want him, you can have William Hague. The scare tactic doesn't bite when no one, including the shadow cabinet, believes the Conservatives have a chance of winning. I'm told that when civil servants went to see Shadow Education Secretary Theresa May for the traditional pre-election briefing, asking what plans they should make for an incoming Tory administration, she kindly told them not to bother: there was no point. Meanwhile would-be Agriculture Minister Tim Yeo has placed a bet - on the size of the Labour majority.
PEB: Greens Kid singing. I'm irritated already. Husky-voiced woman, on how the future isn't fit for children. It's always children. What about now? Integrated public transport, re-nationalising railways, lots of cycling, far fewer cars. Animals and illnesses; is this heading to the vivisection mess? Nope, prevention is better than cure; free check-ups to turn the sickness service into a health service. Pesticides are bad, intensive agriculture is bad. First mention of foot & mouth in the whole raft of PEBs. Bet it'll be the last. Scrap the CAP. An international party... what's the position on the rest of the EU? No single currency, but what else? A party for justice; a party that has been ignored throughout the campaign by the rst of the media. Weblink.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 414 | -0.5 |
| Conservative | 164.5 | +1.5 |
| Lib Dems | 52.25 | +1.25 |
| SNP | 7.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 168 | -2 |
Slight profit taking on Labour, a bottom for the Tories. And the Lib Dems continue to climb, now 15% up on last time.
June 1
Vote For Us, We're Not Them! With less than a week to go before the election, Lady Thatcher and William Hague make impassioned appeals for the electorate to deny Labour a landslide. Could this be the same Lady Thatcher who, as Prime Minister, consigned Francis Pym to outer darkness, for suggesting that an excessive Conservative majority could be bad for the country? Is Hague so bereft of dignity that he is willing to abandon arguments to vote Conservative because his party has better policies, and fall back on appeals from politicians' skid row: 'Buddy, can you spare a dime?'- or, in this case, a vote?
Running scared The Labour Party refuses to appear on the BBC's leading TODAY programme. Ace broadcaster John Humphrys said "The Labour party has failed to put up any government spokesman on any issues although we did ask for an interview with Chris Smith or Claire Short yesterday morning. At least one of them had not been told of the request by midnight last night, so our apologies for that." Spin-doctors at Labour headquarters in Millbank told Radio 4 that if listeners wanted to hear from an official government spokesdroid, they could tune in to the daily press conference directly.
The clear opinion is that Labour refused to co-operate because Claire Short, renowned for speaking her mind, was a liability to the message. Chris Smith had been asked on to talk about the lottery and the possibility of spending the proceeds on health and education. "My guess is they didn't want to put him up either because they didn't want to get drawn on the issue," said one BBC insider. Derek Wyatt, backbencher and member of the select committee on culture, media and sport, accepted an invitation to talk about the lottery.
While inspecting a fleet of police motorbikes Charles Kennedy was invited to ride one. He declined, adding: “I think it might affect my political balance”.
The Lib Dem candidate for Greenock is hit by a sniper's pellet. Charles Brodie is otherwise unhurt.
PEB: Last Time Around The unsung heroes building Britain. Health and safety officers. Nurses. Police. Teachers. Pensioners. We'll keep mortgages as low as possible. Add more health staff. And cops. And teachers, raising standards. Up go pensions. It's all done with a breathless commentary by Tony Blair (or a sound-alike), giving probably more words in this 3 minute ad than there were in the 5 minute Green Party commercial last night.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 409.5 | -5.5 |
| Conservative | 168 | +3.5 |
| Lib Dems | 51.75 | -0.5 |
| SNP | 7.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 161 | -7 |
At this stage, this looks more like profit taking than any sudden conversion or swing.
June 2
Finally talking sense William Hague gives in to internal pressure and takes the Tories' election campaign in a new direction, telling a party rally in Bradford: "This election is about values. Our values as a party, and our values as a country. The values that make up the British character: tolerance and freedom and indignation at injustice; civic pride, patriotism and respect for the law." With his controversial focus on the euro failing to have any impact on the polls, Hague finally accepts the need to redirect the campaign.
Earlier, Hague told a meeting of British Asians: "I believe in one nation. The fact that the United Kingdom is made up of different communities with a variety of different cultures and traditions greatly enriches our national life." In a scathing attack on Labour's record on health and education, Hague said: "Labour doesn't deserve another chance. Britain deserves another government." Itemising taxation, pensioner policy, crime, and schools as well as Europe, he added: "I say to the people of Britain: vote for what you value on Thursday ... come with me, and I will give you back your country."
Today's poster The Tories reckon that Labour will do nasty things to public services. Again.
Back Gillian Shepherd (She's Really Nice, Actually) A candidate who urged his supporters to vote Labour in order to oust a former Conservative Cabinet Minister is rebuked by national party officials. Gordon Dean advised voters to back the second-placed Labour candidate in Norfolk South West seat rather than support his own Lib Dem challenge, in an attempt to oust the former Tory Education Secretary Gillian Shephard, who holds the seat with a majority of 2,464. The Liberal Democrat leadership expressed disapproval of his strategy while he fled the constituency, covering his face to avoid reporters. Dean said he was "going to Nottingham on business" before driving away.
One landslide to go, please Tony Blair urges voters to give him a big majority so that Labour would have a mandate to spend more money on hospitals and schools. He claimed that warnings from Lady Thatcher and William Hague about another Labour landslide were an attempt to reduce his support so that the Tories could "sneak in by the back door". This is known as the Queensland Effect, following the success of Pauline Hanson's One Nation party in the state elections of 1995. There, an incumbent Labour administration was seen as overbearing and on course for a landslide, until polling day.
PEB Another repeat, this time of PEB 1. Does this party have no new ideas?
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 410 | +0.5 |
| Conservative | 167 | -1 |
| Lib Dems | 52.25 | +0.5 |
| SNP | 7.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 163 | +2 |
A slight reversal of yesterday's sell-off.
June 3
I'm Not Scared Of That Geordie Gas Bag William Hague enters into the spirit of the election campaign, by unveiling a new poster. The strap line, "Go on, burst his bubble" won out over the more direct comparison to Challenge Ant: "Come and wipe the smirk off his face."
Effective opposition Chuck Kennedy says that he will lead an "effective opposition" to Labour. Though he knows he's not going to win, Kennedy sounded confident and coherent. This is more than Hague managed two weeks ago; Blair chickened out of the interview with Nick Clarke last week.
PEB: the final Oh, you know how these start. Chuck's bus. Chuck talking. Better public services. Hang on, haven't we seen this one before? Nurses, students (with a *huge* chest), positive press coverage, ex-policemen. Yeah, this is a re-tread of the one from last midweek. Labour needs to be challenged by a party that means something.
Over the whole run of LD PEBs, the *only* politician we've seen or heard is leader Chuck Kennedy.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 408 | -2 |
| Conservative | 168.5 | +1.5 |
| Lib Dems | 53 | +0.75 |
| SNP | 7.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 158 | -5 |
Perhaps Labour was over-bought in mid-week. The Lib Dems move to yet another team best, their first since Thursday.
June 4
Who? Anthony Nelson, who was apparently a junior minister in the Major government, defects to Labour. He's best known for not being at all well known. St Tony has been asking for One Nation Tories to join him lately; they've got One Tory, known throughout his (er) household.
Tony Blair tours Harlow and Enfield, where he meets a heckler intent on stirring up apathy. "Why should I trust any of you?" he cries. Blair doesn't have a decent answer. He does try to go round stirring up his party activists, touring a bunch of marginals in and around the capital. He reckons the Tories are asking people to register a protest vote.
Twenty things I'll do on Friday The Tories unveil their top twenty things to do after the election. Shrink the government, remove spin doctors, stop advertising the government's policies. Put feet up, make cup of tea. Attack Labour's smugness, address landslide, make out with Ffion. "A Labour landslide will only make things worse."
Vague challenges Labour to "come clean" over the government's foot and mouth strategy. "There are rumours about mass culls after election day, police leave being cancelled, haulage contractors being taken on. They owe it to the people of the countryside to come clean about what is happening," he said.
Playing Cheddar Gorge Chuck Kennedy, on a visit to darkest Somerset has been visiting a cheese company before an election rally, he reckons that his opposition will scrutinise Labour backing the issues they like and criticising the slow pace of reform when it doesn't happen on a time scale that doesn't happen to meet their total approval and general consensus... (ctd Mornington Crescent)
Question or nominate? These are some questions left hanging by the campaign.
Will Chancellor Gordon Brown increase tax on income by lining up the National Insurance ceiling with the top limit for paying standard rate tax?
Will Mr Blair drop Keith Vaz from his Government after the election? If Geoffrey Robinson is proved to have received the disputed money from Maxwell, will Mr Blair vote for him to be expelled from the Commons?
Will Tony Blair seek a compromise, such as the licensing of fox-hunting, which the Lords might accept; or use the Parliament Act to overrule the Lords and ban hunting altogether?
Does Mr Blair intend to start campaigning actively on Europe as soon as the election is over to prepare the ground for a referendum on joining the single currency? Would Mr Blair regard it as a significant failure if Britain is not a member of the single currency by the end of the next Parliament?
Which areas of public spending will be squeezed after 2004 in order to make room for continuing faster-than-average growth in health and education spending?
How many elected peers does the Government want? How will they be elected? Will the powers of a reformed House of Lords be increased, reduced or kept the same?
What powers would regional bodies enjoy? Will counties be abolished - or will regions have three tiers of local government: district, county and region?
Would Labour back America's national missile defence system (NMD) if new "star wars" technology is found to work?
If experiments with genetically-modified crops prove successful in showing that the benefits far outweigh the risks, will a Labour government license full-scale production?
Will the Government try to impose its housing plans on reluctant local councils or seek a compromise with them?
PEB: Their Last "24 hours to save the NHS". It's in crisis. "Tough on crime". Police underfunded. "No plans to raise taxes." 45 stealth taxes. Repeat of the £6 gallon claim. Stirring music. Hague "will give you back your country." Cut taxes. Cut fuel by 27p per gallon. Stop criminals getting out early. A safe haven, not a soft touch, for asylum seekers. Freedom for heads to run schools. Doctors to make medical decisions. Abolish lower taxes on savings. In Europe, not run by Europe. Keep the pound. Give back your country. Vote us. We still make PEBs like it's 1974.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 409.5 | +1.5 |
| Conservative | 166 | -2.5 |
| Lib Dems | 54.25 | +1.25 |
| SNP | 7.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 163 | +5 |
Reversing yesterday's changes, but the LDs move to yet another height.
June 5
Answer the question, you slippery squit. Tony Blair evades questions from the BBC about fresh claims that Keith Vaz (Lab, Europe) had not declared one of the properties he owned to parliamentary standards commissioner Elizabeth Filkin during her inquiry into his affairs. Research by Today showed that Vaz transferred one house in Chelsea to his mother while he was under investigation by Filkin, and failed to mention another des res in Pimlico. Rather than answer legitimate questions from legitimate questioners, The Party Leader says he finds the questioning "extraordinary" and urged reporters to focus on his preferred issues such as education, health and who will be out of Big Brother first. "I want to focus on the issues that matter to people." I'm one of the people, and this matters to me. Answer, you squit.
Blah makes a passionate appeal to voters to deliver Labour a second landslide victory, saying "no one" wants to wake up after polling day to a Conservative administration. "It is not a game. On June 7, if people don't come out and help us and support us and put their cross on the ballot paper, then on June 8 people will wake up to Mr Hague and the Conservatives back - and no one in this country, if they think about it, wants that."
Times Votes Labour The semi-official paper of record decides to plump for the red party for the first time ever. The central tenets of the 1980s - a fierce resistance to inflation, a recognition that taxation at a certain level inflicts more harm than good and a distrust of trade union power - are further entrenched today than they were four years ago, according to The Thunderer. "We hope that Mr Blair has the wisdom to concentrate on the series of challenges that he has set out at home and to avoid a reckless continental adventure that could destroy both his premiership and his reputation. On that basis, and for the first time in its history, the Times offers a cautious but clear endorsement of the Labour party in this election."
Torys on the attack Irvine's wallpaper. Formula 1. Mandleson's undeclarations. Sierra Leone. Keith Vaz. All in one parliament. Labour can't be trusted. - the thrust of Hague's speech. The party takes a bounce with a major swing in an opinion poll for Het Grauniad.
Campaign winners A poll of politicos deems Chuck Kennedy the winner of the campaign by a mile. Unbruised by his various TV confrontations (neither Dimbleby laid a glove on him), he also came across sufficiently seriously to banish the image of being a mere “chat show Charlie”. Over the three weeks he added to his stature in a way that no other party leader has quite managed.
Kennedy also faces the one and only streaker of the campaign on stage in Brixton. "Come on, we're a Liberal party."
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 410 | +0.5 |
| Conservative | 166 | ---- |
| Lib Dems | 55.5 | +1.25 |
| SNP | 6.5 | -0.75 |
| Overall Majority | 163 | -- |
Very little change amongst the main parties, but money away from the SNP to the still soaring LD.
The Last PEB! Oh, sorry, it's a tape of meerkats. And a young couple. Running through the rain. To vote. Labour. To the strains of "Lifted". Up goes the minimum wage. And the winter fuel bung. More teachers. Cops. Docs and nurses. Bungs to breeders. Low mortgages. Put schools and hospitals first. Voting won't make the whole street applaud, but it will make a difference. "It's not over until you've voted."
No PEB tomorrow, because there's a live England match on one of the networks, and no-one wanted to be associated with that bunch of losers.
June 6
A Mad DashThe final day on the road sees the runners clock up more miles than it takes to cross the Atlantic.
Tony Blair takes a leaf out of Anneka Rice's book, and stages a 500-mile helecopter jaunt to London, Nottingham, Colwyn Bay and Kirkbride, before appearing as the half-time entertainment in his Sedgefield constituency. "If people don't vote for what they believe in, people will end up with William Hague as Prime Minister."
Chuck Kennedy makes a sweep through the south-west before jetting up to his constituency of Ross, Cromarty, Skye and Inverness West. "If you want investment in education and health to remain the same, vote Labour. If you want it to get worse, vote for the Conservatives. But if you want to improve the situation, vote for us."
Billy Hague appears on the set of Blind Date, and has to choose between Anne, Michael and Francis. Makes Cilla look like a decent choice. He then makes an arc across the country, calling in Bristol, Liverpool and Ayr before hitting Scarborough and his home constituency of Richmond. "Vote Conservative, and Britain will again be a place we can all be proud to call our home."
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 403.5 | -6.5 |
| Conservative | 173 | +7 |
| Lib Dems | 54.5 | -1 |
| SNP | 7 | +0.5 |
| Overall Majority | 147 | -16 |
Meltdown in Labour Support Is Far Too Late Worried by opinion polls slashing Labour's lead to a mere 11%, Labour suffers a drop to the situation as it stood at the end of May.
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