An Interview with Michael Moore
(April 2, 1998)
by Will Leitch, U. The National College Magazine
“The Big One” director Michael Moore hates publicists, capitalist pigs and staying on schedule. But he likes U. Magazine. Here’s a complete transcript of his interview with U.
Will Leitch: It’s kind of funny. I’ve had about four publicists over the last three or four days call me, exasperating and exhausted. “Oh, Mike’s coming, he’s coming, I’m sorry, he’s so late.” It’s very amusing, having seen the film and your dealings with publicists. So many frightened voices on my phone, “Oh, I don’t know where he is! He’s behind schedule!”
Michael Moore:: If anything, I’ve created a new-found sympathy for publicists. You feel sorry for them after watching the movie.
WL: I don’t know if I’d say that.
MM: Yeah, maybe I wouldn’t go that far.
WL: Anyway. when did you decide you were going to try to make a film out of this book tour?
MM: It was almost 20 cities into the tour.
WL: Really? The movie implies this was from the beginning.
MM: No, I kind of condensed it there. They wanted me to go on five or six cities, and I said sure. And then I was out on the tour, and press started happening on the check I wrote the president, and it started getting bigger. So I figured, well, I better call in some reinforcements.
WL: So this was really made on the cheap. How did you finance this?
MM: Credit cards, at first.
WL: And how long did the book tour last?
MM: Forty-seven cities, about two months.
WL: How early into the book tour did you start visiting random cities, like when you visited the PayDay plant?
MM: I was doing that a lot on the book tour, but after a while you just get tired of being on the tour. The film, actually, was kind of a way to rejuvenate my interest in living.
WL: Let’s go to what will surely be the most memorable part of the film for anyone that’s seen it. How shocked were you when (Nike CEO) Phil Knight called that radio station?
MM: Stunned. I thought it was a prank.
WL: Did you have to ask a few questions and make sure it was him?
MM: Yeah. We had to call back, the number that they gave us. I thought it was a joke.
WL: Was it originally him trying to show that he had a good sense of humor about himself and his company?
MM: I think that was his initial thinking.
WL: Do you think he expected that since he had a good sense of humor about himself, that you were just going to let him off the hook?
MM: I don’t know what he was thinking, man. But it was a big mistake.
WL: What ended up happening out of that? Did he end up matching your money offer?
MM: Yeah. That was sweet, wasn’t it?
WL: Actually, I just wrote a big story for our magazine on Nike’s presence on college campuses.
MM: Yeah, I read it.
WL: Really?
MM: Yeah, some kids out at Boulder, I was on the campus there last week. They gave it to me. They were all excited. They just thought it was really killer.
WL: Did you enjoy it?
MM: Yeah, of course. It was so great to see, especially in that kind of magazine, ‘cause it reaches so many students. I’d seen the magazine before, because I speak a lot on college campuses.
WL: Well, uh, great, thanks. Now I’m completely off-track. Thanks a lot.
MM: Hey, it’s nice to hear out in Boulder, Colorado, that somebody’s paying attention to what you’re writing.
WL: What are the main things that stick out to you about Nike today?
MM: Well, I think they’ve done a lot of good things, but they’ve got this huge blind spot in terms of how they treat their Asian workers. Not to mention their view of American workers, which I think is pretty poor. And then there’s the sort of behemoth that they’ve become, where I just can’t stand seeing their swoosh on uniforms, especially on our public institutions. It just is not right.
WL: You said you went to a lot of college towns on the tour. What kind of vibe did you get from some of the students you talked to?
MM: Of course, college campuses are the greatest, because the students and people of that age group, first of all, love this kind of humor. That kind of subversive humor, the rebellious nature of the film, all of that. But also, people who are 20 years old are concerned about what’s ahead of me here, once I get out of school. Am I going to be just another of those six-dollar-an-hour workers at Borders like you see in the film? If that’s what’s in store, what’s this all about then? When will I ever pay this student loan off? What do you do for health care once you’re off your parents’ health care? What do you do? Jeez. So you become immediately politicized on a number of levels, because you realize how all of this really does impact you.
WL: What kind of people do you want to make sure see The Big One? Other than, well, everyone? Is there anyone that you think needs to see this film?
MM: I want people from the working class to see it. Anybody who grew up sort of in a working class, blue-collar family. I want them to know that our voice has gotten out there. I’m able to reach a lot of people with this, and I want them to feel like they’re not alone.
And I want people, especially young people, to go and just have a good time, because I think it’s an entertaining, very funny hour and a half. And you can sit there and say, ‘hey, here’s one for our side. Stick it to the man, Mike.’ You know, that sort of thing.
WL: Let’s go back to Nike for a second, mainly because I forgot something. I’ve read that they came to you and asked you to take out certain parts of the film. Is that true?
MM: Yes.
WL: Did they say anything specifically, any particular scene? How did the conversation go?
MM: The line there with Phil Knight where I ask him, “Why do you have 12-year-olds in there?” and he says, “They’re not 12, they’re 14.” And I say “doesn’t that bother you?” and he goes, “No.”
WL: Hmmm. That’s strange. Why would they want to take that out?
MM: (laughing) Legally, the law in Indonesia is 16. And he wanted the line out about, “in five years, one of those little Indonesians is probably going to be your landlord.”
WL: Did they offer you anything to take it out?
MM: No, I didn’t let the conversation get to that. I just said, “nothing’s coming out of the film.” I said I’ll add a scene at the end, of you building that factory in Flint.
WL: That’s a perfect way to end the film, with you saying you’d like to close your movie --
MM: On a happy note? (laughing) Yeah, he just stares at me.
WL: Let’s talk about some of the other stuff you’ve done. “TV Nation” never really quite got the following it probably deserved. Do you still feel positively about that?
MM: Oh, totally. Are you kidding? It has a huge cult following, you know. We won the Emmy award. I feel really great about it.
WL: There were so many great people on that show. Janeane Garofalo, Rusty Cundieff, Yaphet Kotto. Are you interested in doing anything else like that in the future?
MM: Oh yeah. Channel Four in London has just put up the money for another 16 episodes of TV Nation, or whatever we call it this time.
WL: Do you have any distributors in America yet?
MM: They’re negotiating with an American network right now, yeah, so I’m sure it will be seen in America. And we’ve also written a book called “Adventures in a TV Nation.” It’s sort of a funny companion to what we did already. And that’ll be out in June.
WL: Anything else on the horizon? Any other on-the-fly films?
MM: I plan to make another film or two, I hope.
WL: Fictional?
MM: One’s fictional, one non-fiction idea, which I’m not really talking about. (laughing) Top secret.
WL: I’m curious. Are there any politicians out there that you admire, that you think are what a politician should be?
MM: I like Paul Wallstone, a Sen. from Minnesota. Congressman Bernie Sanders from Vermont. There’s some good people from my home state of Michigan. There’s some good people out there. Still like Jesse Jackson.
WL: What’s your take on the Iraq situation, and our little incident -- OK, fine, I won’t pretend. What’s your take on the Monica Lewinsky situation?
MM: I remember what it was like to be 21 and lying and exaggerating about sex. I think that’s what’s happened here, is that she called up a friend and would have these conversations about running away with the big schmuck-o and all this stuff. I honestly don’t really believe it.
WL: Any updates on the meetings with some of the people in the film, like the workers at Borders?
MM: Well, four of the stores have now formed a union. Two in the film, two more since.
WL: Is this pretty much all you’re doing now, just publicity for this film?
MM: Yeah, and then I’ll start working on this next film when it’s over.
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An Interview with Shay Astar
(Jan. 10, 1998)
by Chad M. Polenz, Chad'z Movie Page
In May of 1997, I created a web page dedicated to actress Shay Astar. I didn't think much of it at first because I doubted anyone else besides me and my friends would ever see it. By sheer luck, someone on the Internet, who is an associate of Shay's, told her about it. Before I knew it, I was receiving pictures and information about her via e-mail which I quickly posted on the page. And then one day Shay herself e-mailed me.
Since then I've e-mailed Shay on a semi-frequent basis. She has always been so nice in answering my questions, and even agreed to set up a one-on-one interview. Unfortunately, between both of our busy schedules there hasn't been a time at which we were both free until Jan. 10, 1998 - a Saturday afternoon.
I couldn't even comprehend the fact I was talking to her (I still can't!). We talked for about 45 minutes, and even though I didn't get to ask her all of my questions, I'd have to say the interview went well. She's a nice person and very down-to-Earth. It was just like I was talking to one of my friends. This is how the conversation went:
Chad Polenz: How did you find out about my web page dedicated to you?
Shay Astar: Some of the writers at work said, "Shay, we found a web page about you! You should check it out." So I did.
CP: What was your reaction when you saw the page?
SA: Well, I didn't have much a reaction at first. I just thought, "Why would somebody want to have a web page about me? I mean, this is me." But I was amused, and I thought it was kinda cute.
CP: How did you hear about, and get the part of August?
SA: My agent called me up and told me about this new show "3rd Rock From The Sun." I auditioned and got a callback, then another callback. At the last callback Joey [Joseph Gordon-Levitt, who plays Tommy] read with me and we got along really well. I think it was on that basis I got the part.
CP: How many other people auditioned for the role?
SA: I don't know, but the final round consisted of me and six other girls.
CP: Was this a part you were really excited about, or was it no big deal?
SA: Oh yeah, I was really excited because I really liked the part. I don't usually feel that way going into auditions. I remember thinking, "This is MY role!"
CP: Are you ever intimated by all the success and popularity surrounding the show?
SA: No. It's kinda weird when I realize how popular the show became, but it's not intimidating. It's just my job and I love it.
CP: How do you like working with the people on that show?
SA: They're great. They're the coolest bunch of people you could ever hope to work with.
CP: A lot of girls who see the Shay page write to me asking me to ask you about Joseph Gordon-Levitt. They want to know what it's like to work with him, and is he a good kisser?
SA: [laughs] Joey's a great guy, he's probably one of the most talented young actors around. He makes me want to be a better actor. As far as the kissing goes, well, it's not really the same thing to kiss someone in real life as on TV. There's not emotion to it, and you have all these people watching you, adjusting the lights and stuff.
CP: There's also rumors that the two of you don't get along off-camera, is this true?
SA: No, not at all. We're different people but we get along really well.
CP: Do you hang out with anyone from the show in your personal time?
SA: We don't really get a chance to hang out a lot. We see each other at birthday parties and stuff. But we see each other a lot at work and hang out there.
CP: Are you at all like August?
SA: I used to be more like her when the show first started. As I've gotten older, I've distanced myself from her. She's interesting and intelligent, but I don't approve of how she acts in her relationship with Tommy. I've grown up more than August has.
CP: Why did August and Tommy break up?
SA: August cheated on him, but they're still friends.
CP: Will they be getting back together?
SA: I don't know, but as of right now they're not getting back together.
CP: So it's kind of like a Jerry and Elaine [on "Seinfeld"] thing?
SA: Sort of I guess. I can't really say where it's going though.
CP: You've done a lot of other things besides "3rd Rock," what are some of the things you'd like your fans to check out, if they haven't already?
SA: I wouldn't necessarily recommend my old stuff. I'm proud of what I did, but acting gets different as I get older. If they want to see what kind of an actor I am, I suggest they keep watching "3rd Rock."
CP: Do you plan to stay in show business indefinitely?
SA: Absolutely. For the rest of my life.... or until I'm kicked out of the industry!
CP: Are you currently working on any movies or other TV shows?
SA: There's a film I'm looking into that Don Gale wrote, but he's still trying to get financing. Until then I'm staying with "3rd Rock."
CP: How does being an actor affect your personal life?
SA: As far as how my personal life affects the people I'm close to, like my friends and family - it doesn't really affect them that much because they're used to it. New people coming into my life have a hard time dealing with it. People that I don't know can be weird about it.
CP: Do people recognize you when you go out?
SA: Yeah, people usually recognize me.
CP: Does it ever bother you?
SA: It depends on the person. Some people are really nice and polite and discrete. Like they'll say, "Excuse me, are you on that '3rd Rock' show?" That I don't mind because it's nice to be respected. But when people are weird and scream, well, I don't like that at all. For example, whenever I go to the market there's this one woman who always screams and runs up to me and say "You're my actress!" She says something about how she knows someone that knows French Stewart or something. I have no idea what she's talking about, she's crazy. Sometimes stuff like this happens every day, sometimes not for a long time.
CP: What advantages, on a personal level, is there to your popularity?
SA: There's no advantages, really. Or at least I almost never take advantage of it, like getting restaurant reservations. The only thing I can think of is sometimes I use it to get good concert tickets.
CP: How successful do you want to become?
SA: I don't want to become superstar famous. I want to be widely respected as an actor. I'd rather be more like the Jennifer Jason Leigh-type, where she gets good roles and isn't hounded by the paparazzi and stuff. I don't really want to be the bombshell type like Sandra Bullock or someone.
CP: How successful do you expect to become?
SA: I don't really expect anything out of this business. It's quite a surprising industry and I'm just hoping I'll become as successful as I want to be.
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The 70th Annual Academy Awards
(April 1, 1998)
by Wesley Lovell, The Oscar Guy
Oscar Night went off rather quietly Monday, March 23, 1998. Aside from the usual fanfare, the show was more elegant and subdued than previous years. With a record running time of 3 hours and 45 minutes, a slow night is one way to explain it.
Oscar did return to an elegant motif. Part of the credit for this goes to Production Designer Roy Christopher whose brilliant designs for the awards were more traditional than past years and thus added a nice touch.
The choreographed musical numbers were less obrtusive this year and more interestingly done. Daniel Ezralow should be complimented for bringing an acceptable alternative to years past.
The myriad of presenters this year was lackluster. Juliette Binoche couldn't make it to present the award for Best Actor. The others were more wooden than anything.
Host Billy Crystal did a great job for his sixth year. He has been the host since the awards show of 1990 with a three year hiatus where Whoopi Goldberg fantastically bookended a pathetic David Letterman. Crystal's opening music number was traditional, but not extremely memorable, save for the Titanic/Gilligan's Island parody; however, the opening montage where Crystal was placed in scenes from the best picture nominees was quite interesting and filled with plenty of laughs.
Out of all the fashions that paraded the Academy's red carpet, only four truly stand out in my mind. I've read other critics praise the minimalism of most arrivals, but I am more interested in the bizarre. Sigourney Weaver wore what could only be called disgusting. Her outfit was garish and completely inappropriate for the ceremony. She is easily the worst dressed of the night. Madonna wore an intriguing ensemble that paled in comparison to her wonderful, elegant dress from last year.
The two top outfits on my list from this year starts with Kate Winslet. Her Titanic-inspired green dress with a very period motif and gold embroidery was fantastic. The most extravagant, original and downright neat dress of the evening was designed by Bob Mackie for the always interesting Cher. Her gown was a mixture of light tans, pale pinks, glitter and lace. She wore a headress to match the outfit and was absolutely mesmerizing. That she wasn't heralded much for the outfit leads me to wonder if people have much taste or if they just cite Cher as the worst every year.
The most exciting moment of the evening for me occurred on the red carpet arrivals. I wasn't expecting to see a modern day hero in the midst of such illustrious film legends and newcomers. Rosa Parks, the woman who ignited a controversy by refusing to give up her bus seat to a white passenger in Montgomery, Alabama, was there. Her courageous effort led to the Montgomery Bus Boycott and eventually to a battle over the freedoms of blacks.
Also very wonderful was seeing the past Oscar winners including Luise Rainer, Shirley Temple-Black and Shelley Winters. That section of the show took a bit long for my tastes, but it was still effective.
From the ceremony itself to the Awards, Oscar was extremely predictable. My own predictions came out with 18 of the top 19 categories and two of the five Foreign Film, Documentary and Short Film Categories. My only misstep was underestimating the give-L.A. Confidential-all-you-can vote to Kim Basinger for Supporting Actress. While not all of the best performances were honored, my predictions were very accurate.
As expected, the technical awards, save Makeup to Men in Black, all went to Titanic. The Full Monty joined two Titanic wins in the Music categories.
The Foreign Film award went to Character from The Netherlands. Documentary Feature and Short Subject went to The Long Way Home and A Story of Healing respectively. Visas and Virtues and Pixar's Geri's Game took Live Action and Animated Short Film awards respectively.
The remaining eight categories were split equally among four of the best picture nominees, two each. Best Adapted Screenplay went to Curtis Hanson in tribute to what many critics consider the best film of the year, L.A. Confidential. Also swept in was Kim Basinger for Best Supporting Actress as a Veronica Lake look-alike prostitute.
Good Will Hunting captured Adapted Screenplay Oscars for its young stars Matt Damon and Ben Affleck. Their acceptance speech was exuberant as was that of Best Supporting Actor winner Robin Williams. His win gave him his first in four nominations and he thanked his father who told him: "Wonderful, just have a backup profession like welding."
The two for As Good As It Gets came as bookends for Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt. Nicholson won his third Oscar making him tied for the most honored male actor in Oscar history. He shares the honor with Walter Brennan who won three awards in a five-year span with one Oscar given to someone else between his wins. Nicholson also brought another record further: Every actress that has appeared opposite Nicholson in his three wins has also won an Oscar. The first was Louise Fletcher in 1976 for One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. Then in 1983 Shirley MacLaine walked away with leading to Nicholson's supporting for Terms of Endearment. Now Helen Hunt joins that prestigious company.
The final two Oscars presented were to Best Director and Best Picture. James Cameron won for his direction and then won his third Oscar of the night for Best Picture along with Jon Landau for the record-tying Titanic. He also won for Film Editing along with Conrad Buff and Richard A. Harris. Titanic now ties Ben-Hur as the most honored film in Oscar history, with 11 wins, not long after it tied the record for most nominations with All About Eve at 14.
Overall the choices were astute, except in the acting categories where Judi Dench, Greg Kinnear and Julianne Moore were my personal favorites. That wraps another year of Oscar, the 70th. Next year we'll see who can capture the trophy. Will it finally be Stanley Kubrick's turn for Eyes Wide Shut or will Disney finally win a Picture award for its Animated feature Mulan. Can DreamWorks walk away with its first Oscar for Prince of Egypt, Picture possibly? Or will another film surprise us all and come out of the dark to win. Until next year, this is Wesley Lovell, The Oscar Guy wishing you a happy year.
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Oscar and His Nominations
(March)
by Wesley Lovell, The Oscar Guy
The big night is just around the corner, March 23, 9pm(8pm CST/6pm EST) and The Oscar Guy is back to bring some updates to what may happen on Oscar night.
Titanic is sitting pretty, but a rumored backlash could prevent it from taking a number of Oscars. It's weakest categories: Actress, Supporting Actress and Makeup are all under scrutiny.
Kate Winslet, being British does not help and hers is the least likely award of the evening. If she happens to come out on top, then expect Titanic to have won all 14 awards.
Gloria Stuart, Best Supporting Actress nominee and octigenarian, could be the next weakest link. She has the sentimentality vote, but her performance may have left a lot to be desired with a lot of people in Hollywood.
Titanis faces a fierce competition in the Makeup category where it will most likely lose its trophy to Men in Black. Watch these three categories, the latter come towards the beginning of the telecast, if either or both win the award, Titanic should sail smoothly to a record. If it fails to get these, look for a tie with Ben-Hur or even a loss of Best Picture.
From the other categories, the biggest questions come from Cinematography, Director and Picture. While most consider it a shoo-in for all three, there are some who say it might be sunk by an anti-Titanic sentiment. If it loses in these categories, look for L.A. Confidential to take the latter and Kundun to take the first.
The races in the acting categories are tight and only Dustin Hoffman, Matt Damon, Robert Forster and Minnie Driver seem sure losers.
Supporting Actor is a race between Burt Reynolds and Robin Williams. Growing support for Good Will Hunting will likely bring Williams his first trophy in four nominations. If Burt wins, expect a very apologetic and tearful acceptance speech.
Gloria Stuart, Kim Basinger and Julianne Moore are contenders for Supporting Actress. Stuart has the Titanic-sweep and aged vote that will likely lead to her win. Basinger has the pro-L.A. Confidential vote, that could garner the film with one of its only two awards. Julianne Moore is the critical favorite and could break into the winners circle if Stuart and Basinger cancel each other out. The wild card here is Joan Cusack. If she has enough support for her In & Out role, she could come from behind to snatch everyone but Oscar bald-headed.
Actress is a tough category as well with no less than five contenders. Winslet is one of the weakest links, but a Titanic sweep could put her into the winners circle. Julie Christie has an Oscar and is the only one in this category that can say that. Helena Bonham Carter appeared in a little-seen movie that could prove fatal to her victory despite critical acclaim. Judi Dench is the runner-up as an embattered British monarch and could possibly wring out a victory if the leader falls. If she does fall, Helen Hunt will lose because of her TV career.
The three-way race heats up in Best Actor between Jack Nicholson, Peter Fonda and Robert Duvall. Duvall could garner enough votes to win, but he and Fonda share a common fate, their movies haven't been seen by a lot of people. Nicholson is the front-runner, making the race very interesting. If he wins, he will tie Walter Brennan for the most honored male actor in Academy Awards history. Fonda stands a good shot at winning if enough people see him, Duvall and Nicholson's previous wins, or brother-in-law Ted Turner can buy enough votes.
The Best Director field, one of the last presented each year, comes down to the popular versus the upset. Cameron and Hanson battle each other to be king of the hill with the current lead going to Cameron. The Titanic director holds the DGA award, which, in its 50-year history, has matched the Oscar winner all but four times. If there is too much of a backlash, look for Curtis Hanson to pull out a victory.
In the other categories, there is little that Titanic won't get. Outside of Makeup, there are only 10 categories it isn't or can't compete in. Foreign Film, the two documentary and two short film categories take up five of those slots while Actor and Supporting Actor take two more. It isn't eligible in Adapted Screenplay, which will undoubtedly go the L.A. Confidential, or Comedy/Musical Score, which should give Full Monty its only Oscar. The remaining category is Original Screenplay. It was eligible, but because it was felt to be the film's weekest link, it failed to get a nomination here leaving Good Will Hunting to barely edge out As Good As It Gets for the win.
The talk I've heard is that the competition in Foreign Film is between all of the nominees but Secrets of the Heart from Spain. Character from The Netherlands could easily win, but watch out for Germany's Beyond Silence, Four Days in September from Brazil and Russia's The Thief.
I try to stay away from the lower categories, but predict them all-the-same. I've chosen 4 Little Girls, Alaska: Spirit of the Wild, La Vielle Dame et Les Pigeons and Visas and Virtue in Documentary Feature, Short Subject, Animated Short Film and Live Action Short films respectively.
The big question is can Titanic be sunk by L.A. Confidential or Good Will Hunting. Most people will say no, but there are those who are rooting for it to lose to one of the two. L.A. Confidential could be too confusing and too violent to win. Good Will Hunting could be too popular and not substantial enough to win. Titanic has the pedigree of a Best Picture winner, but either Hunting or Confidential could snatch away the trophy if there is a substantial backlash.
I'll be watching with all of you and when the results are finally revealed, I'll be back to summerize what happened, what were the shocks and how my predictions stood up. Until then, have a great week.
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Oscar and His Nominations
(February)
by Wesley Lovell, The Oscar Guy
It's once again Oscar season and Hollywood is back.
The studios hit back big this year when they successfully captured four of the five best picture slots. Not to mention the record-tying 14 nominations earned by the Paramount/20th Century-Fox feature Titanic
L.A. Confidential, fellow nominee for Best Picture, is a product of Warner Bros., As Good As It Gets is from TriStar and The Full Monty is from 20th Century-Fox company-ette Fox Searchlight. That leaves Good Will Hunting. Hunting is from Miramax, a noted independent film studio. Miramax, however, is owned by Disney and really doesn't count as an independent.
DreamWorks' first Oscar nominations came for the black-mutiny drama Amistad. Four nods after being shut out of the Picture and Director categories.
There were many films and performances missing that show the Academy may be losing its grip in some respects. Witness Titanic's omission from Original Screenplay. Other exclusions were: Amistad for Picture; Spielberg for Director; Contact in almost every category it deserved; Fifth Element in Art Direction, Costuming and Visual Effects; Pam Grier for Actress; and Rupert Everett for Supporting Actor.
Now that the nominations are out, experts are trying to predict who will win and who won't. The Oscar Guy is here to provide my views.
Looking only at the top categories in detail, we start with the likely first award presented in the evening, Supporting Actor. This category is filled with some tremendous performances and all are very deserving. Robert Forster was the surprise nominee, but will lose out on Oscar night. Anthony Hopkins already has a trophy. Greg Kinnear plays a gay man in As Good As It Gets and will have a hard time winning. That leaves the two prime candidates. One is a four-time nominee. The other is a comeback kid from the '70s. Robin Williams plays a psychiatrist in Good Will Hunting and Burt Reynolds plays a fatherly porn filmmaker in Boogie Nights. Robin Williams has his comedy career against him, but those three previous losses help. Reynolds has never been nominated, but was a box office king in the '70s. Boogie Nights was not an Academy favorite, but they could see it as honoring People vs. Larry Flynt which they snubbed last year. The two will be neck and neck and my choice could change, but give the trophy to Golden Globe winner Reynolds.
Supporting Actress is a weaker category, but could yield some shocks. You can't count any out, but Cusack seems to be the weakest. She doesn't have a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nomination and will be hurt without a win from them. Minnie Driver is a longer shot, while she was a major center to the film, her inclusion is merely part of a Good Will Hunting tribute. Moore may be weakened by the Boogie Nights controversy. That leaves Golden Globe winner Kim Basinger. Her career is checkered at best, with very few critics able to support her, and if she loses the SAG award, she won't win. Gloria Stuart remains the closest to a win. She provides the emotional center of the film and if she wins, she'll be the oldest performer ever to win an Oscar at the age of 87. Stuart also has the popular vote because of Titanic's momentum at the boxoffice.
Actor is a category filled with brilliant performances and could easily be the upset category of the evening. Matt Damon is too young and will win a Screenplay award for the film. Dustin Hoffman does more of an imitation in Wag the Dog, not to mention he's already won twice. The Academy won't be likely to honor him again for a very long time. Jack Nicholson also has a problem in that area. He has also won two awards, this is also a record-breaking 11th nomination for an actor. That leaves Robert Duvall and Peter Fonda. Robert Duvall has an Oscar on his shelf and this fact will hurt him greatly. Peter Fonda is a member of one of the most celebrated acting families in history. They may feel pressed to give the family a third Oscar winner and would be wise to do so. Fonda has the lead, but Duvall could come from behind to upset things.
Actress is another strong category. So strong in fact that Pam Grier, Jodie Foster and Victoire Thivisol were left off. Kate Winslet doesn't have enough time in the acting community to be honored, she'll be one of the few washed over in a likely Titanic sweep. Helen Hunt is a TV actress, which will hurt her dramatically. Not to mention As Good As It Gets is a comedy. Helena Bonham Carter is a young actress and has many more roles to play and many more Oscars to be nominated for. This will factor into the Academy's decision. What will help are those multiple critics awards for Actress. Golden Globe winner Judi Dench appears to be the front runner. She's historical, she's stately and so opposite her "M" in the James Bond films, she could be the heavy favorite.
Director is a category that yielded Peter Cattaneo as a surprise nominee, his name will not be read on Oscar night. Atom Egoyan appears to like Opera better and the fact that he's Canadian hurts him far greater. Gus Van Sant has been around for awhile, but with several missteps in his past films, the Academy won't be singing his praises. Curtis Hanson has won numerous pre-Oscar awards from critics, but is also fairly young, his career is new and since he'll make an A-list for Directors, he'll likely be on the Oscar ballot again. That leaves the precision-filled James Cameron. His award will come as a great job notice from the Academy for bringing glory back to Hollywood and creating the biggest box office phenomenon of all-time. What will hurt him is his previous career as an action/adventure filmmaker
Best Picture is an interesting race. The Full Monty will be shut out, it's a comedy and we all know how well they honor comedies (Driving Miss Daisy in 1989 was the last). As Good As It Gets may have been good, but director James L. Brooks was forgotten and only three times has a film won without its director being nominated (the last time was also Driving Miss Daisy). Good Will Hunting is this year's Jerry Maguire. Younger actors, male-oriented situations, Good Will Hunting will be popular among the younger viewers of the Academy. Splitting the younger vote and losing the Anti-Violence vote is L.A. Confidential. While its won a host of critics awards, its not the favorite to win, if Titanic doesn't win, then expect L.A. to do it. Titanic is what the Academy loves. An epic. Titanic has popular appeal, which will help with the number of votes it gets. It'll carry the female vote. It'll also carry the older vote that Full Monty (R), Good Will Hunting (R) and L.A. Confidential (R) will lose because of their overly powerful violence, language and ratings. Titanic is the film to beat.
What do I see winning in the other categories? Original Screenplay - Good Will Hunting; Adapted Screenplay - L.A. Confidential; Comedy Score - As Good As It Gets; Makeup - Men in Black and Titanic taking all of the others: Drama Score, Song, Film Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Sound, Sound Effects Editing and Visual Effects, 9 in all. Add in director, picture and supporting actress and you have a record-breaking 12 awards (beating Ben-Hur's record of 11). If Titanic fails to win picture, it will be the most honored film in history to not win best picture. (Cabaret in 1972 holds the record with 8)
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