- - - KNOWLEDGE IS POWER - - -
On the other hand lie very stable climates, and a rich, varied and vibrantly healthy biosphere - and the vast future of Homo nobilis stellaris. And although this can be done quickly, easily and very cheaply, it will take a massive planetary effort - right now - to avert the catastrophic collapse of our biosphere within our time.
The hair-raising truth is that this process is already well underway.
As this diagram shows, the decimation of susceptible nascent organisms by increased UVB radiation began in 1990 - fully 7 years ago. Most of us have heard about the puzzling world-wide decimation Not as well known is the recently discovered eradication of chironomid larvae. And UVB damage to crop seedlings is already a growing problem in agriculture around the world. Meanwhile, the incidence of skin cancer due to exposure to sunlight has risen dramatically, and it is no more a question of whether or not we will get skin cancer, but simply when. All very small, microscopic, and newly born (nascent) organisms - including the plankton of the seas, and the newly nascent, or budding growth of all plant life - are far more susceptible to UVB radiation than large mature organisms. While large mature organisms can tolerate the loss of thousands, even millions of cells to UVB radiation, the loss of even a few cells spells death for the few cells of very small, newly nascent, or budding organisms. What this means is that, sometime in the foreseeable future, steadily increasing UVB radiation will reach an intensity strong enough to burn away all the budding tender growth of spring, and we will realize that (then) last year's spring has been "The Last Spring" on the Earth, period. All of these well documented facts show that the eradication of susceptible nascent organisms is already well underway. And plants are extremely susceptible to UVB radiation, since they are acutely oriented towards sunligh - the very source of their life-energy. This puts us perilously close to the catastrophic collapse of our planetary biosphere. And the date of the collapse of our biosphere can now be calculated. All the factors are known. At the current rate, the total collapse of our biosphere will come in our time. However, we still have a few years in which these dynamics can still be reversed, The solution is simple, and effective. To understand why this is our only remaining chance, we have to look at some fundamental dynamics of our biosphere. So far, so good. However, there is a major problem here. This bland assumption - no one had ever checked the actual figures - turned out to be entirely wrong. Two years later, my assertion was confirmed by a major joint study by NASA, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, and the Lamont-Doherty Geological Survey. Based upone first principles, this study found that land-based photosynthesis absorbs about 3 billion tons of atmospheric carbon dioxide annually, whereas marine photosynthesis absorbs, at most, 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually ("Murky Water"; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, page 24, May 1990). This discovery was underscored by the 1993 discovery of the existence of vast plankton 'deserts' in the oceans, immense areas which are barren of all plankton due to the lack of suspended iron in the water. It was discovered that plankton exists only along the iron-rich margins of the continents, and in the down-current 'plumes' of islands. The extent of seaweed is even more restricted than plankton, since seaweed exists only within a narrow band along the margins of the continents and islands. As these, and many ongoing studies have shown, marine photosynthesis generates only about 1/4 of the free oxygen, and hence ozone, in our atmosphere - and that continental photosynthesis generates fully 3/4 of the free oxygen, and hence the ozone, in our planetary atmosphere! And as we all know, we are eradicating the green cover of the continents on a massive scale. The alarm signals are blaring loud and clear. Climatic extremes - as well as increased UVB radition - severely interfere with the normal growth of continental green cover- including our crops - and adversely affect their survival. They will wipe out all 'tender' plant life in borderline regions, and eventually, when severe enough, climatic extremes will make all plant growth impossible. Climatic extremes also contribute substantially to the eradication of continental green cover by frost, erosion, mud slides, floods, heat, droughts and forest fires. We will see vast forest conflagrations in the very near future. These alarm signals are not only loud and clear, but they also tell us that our biosphere is rapidly approaching crisis state.
Since much of this is based upon new scientific discoveries, a few explanations are necessary. The two horizontal lines of this diagram represent the 'Stratum of Stability' of our biosphere, which is centered upon - but somewhat exceeds - the Stratum of Stability of fluid water. So, the two lines representing the upper and lower limits of the 'Stratum of Stability' of our biosphere are real. Our biosphere does have a Stratum of Stability, which is energy-determined, and very precisely so. As is normal, the flux and flow of energy within any Stratum of Stability is chaotic - it never repeats itself - but it always remains within the 'box' of the upper and lower limits of its Stratum of Stability. This is why our weather is essentially unpredictable - it never repeats itself precisely - but it remains within 'normal' ranges, and does so for very long times. This has changed dramatically over the last decade. "Threshold Dynamics" were discovered by Ilya Prigogine, for which he received the 1977 Nobel Prize. Let us return to the familiar example of water to understand what "Threshold Dynamics" mean. When we heat water to boil it, it begins to simmer, and then roil and bubble violently, just before it begins to turn into steam. The simmering, and then the roiling and bubbling of hot water are the "Threshold" dynamics of water preceeding the phase-shift from fluid water to steam - from its fluid Stratum of Stability, to its gaseous Stratum of Stability. It is clear that this phase-shift is entirely energy-driven. Prigogine's "Threshold Dynamics" apply to all physical, chemical, biological, even social and psychological systems (see "Order Out Of Chaos"; Ilya Prigogine, 1984). And our biosphere is a biological system. Our biosphere is doing exactly the same thing; it is simmering right now, and beginning to boil, so to speak. As in water approaching the boiling point, the normal fluctuations of our planetary climate are becoming progressively more violent, and have begun to exceed the normal and historic Stratum of Stability of our biosphere. Our planetary biosphere is indeed, and right now, in the Threshold Phase to a catastrophic phase-shift from one Stratum of Stability to another. There are now 3 interlocked factors at work which will lead to the collapse of our biosphere. 2) Increasing climatic extremes 3) The massive eradication of global forest cover To make it much worse, since all 3 factors are inextricably interlocked, they reinforce each other in a vicious spiral of powerfully escalating feedback forces. Things will get much worse every year - and very rapidly so. Some people may ask, why are these natural forces going against us all of a sudden? Primitive photosynthesizing bacteria then laboured for the inconceivable immensity of 3.5 billion years Yes, there still will be life on the Earth; but only in deep UVB sheltered places far from the surface of the Earth. Still, there is some hope. In other words, it can be done. Hardy and explosively rampant plants are readily available, the 70% of nitrogen in our atmosphere provides more than enough fertilizer for leguminous plants, we now have lots of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, and dense plants such as the Kudzu vine retain most of the moisture they need in the ground they shade. As described here in "A stable, balmy climate, and a vibrantly healthy biosphere", the explosive Kudzu vine is an ideal candidate. In a way, it is almost as easy as getting such plants started, and then stand back and let them grow. And in a few years we will have a dense and safe ozone shield, and a rich, stable, vibrant and rather pleasant planetary biosphere. We have become a planetary species, and so numerous that our activities now affect the planet.
This is not so anymore. But we still act as if we were few, and as if our biosphere were indestructible. If we persist in following only our own individual concerns - multiplied by 6 billion - the catastrophic collapse of our biosphere is just around the corner. On the other hand, once we have re-established the green cover of the continents to provide safe levels of oxygen and ozone - taking into account such natural disasters as meteor impacts, volcanic eruptions and forest fires - we can relax and take it easy. No sacrifices are required, neither is a drastic reduction in our numbers. And as a bonus, we will get to live on a green, abundantly rich and verdant planet with a very stable and pleasant planetary climate. It will be like living in a huge and very beautiful park, teeming with all kinds of life. All that is required of us is to be aware of, and maintain the total planetary photosynthetic capacity of our planet; Among many other things, I had also predicted the collapse of communism in 1985 - when this was 'unthinkable' - only to see it come true with the collapse of the former USSR and the East Block nations. The remaining communist systems will collapse as well, and within our time. This is inevitable. And so will capitalism, by the way. It will take another 300 years or so, but it will collapse. This is also inevitable. The only prediction that has not come true yet is that 'Mother Russia' and 'Uncle Sam' will get married. Made somewhat in jest, with the prediction of the collapse of communism, this remains to be seen; it is more a possibility than a firm prediction. I am a bit aghast right now, actually. Having seen all my other predictions come true, I now worry that this prediction will come true as well. The predictive power of these universal laws is awesome. This is natural though; once these universal laws and dynamics are understood, our futures are - depending upon what we do now - very much of any open book. I have spoken here of both the staggering immensity of our future and of our ultimate destiny, as well as of the imminent catastrophic collapse of our planetary biosphere. This is the nature of futures; with the sole exception of natural forces and cataclysms, our futures crystallise out of our activities in the present. Had we not denuded the continents of their green cover and invented CFCs, the collapse of our biosphere would not have arisen. Similarly, had we not invented nuclear weapons, our present would be much different than it is now. Along the same lines, the presence of nuclear waste on our planet has already determined many aspects of our long-term future - just as Chernobyl has precipitated a totally different future for the lands around it. In exactly the same way, which of the two futures outlined here becomes our reality depends entirely upon what we do now. Whether we will realize the immense potential and future of Homo nobilis, stellaris - or be dust in the eternal winds of a forlorn and all but lifeless desert planet - is up to us. It is our choice - right now. Tomorrow is too late. That this cross-roads point is real is obvious. On the one hand, Homo nobilis, stellaris has emerged among us already, and we have just entered the infinite realm of the Age of Mind-tools. On the other, the rapid deterioration of our planetary climate and biosphere is just as indisputably obvious. We have initiated both; and our further actions, right now, will determine which of these two futures will become our reality. To understand, employ and use the laws and creative forces of our universe - within the domain of our influence - is part and parcel of the nature and being of Homo nobilis, stellaris. And to take responsibility for the well being of the biosphere of our planet is just one of the first steps of the further evolution of Homo nobilis, stellaris.
Best seen with
The date of the collapse of our planetary biosphere can now be calculated.
It is very, very simple.
When the increasing Ultra Violet radiation from our Sun exceeds the UVB tolerance limit of vegetation, it will begin to burn away the vegetation of the Earth - both marine and land-based. The consequences will be catastrophic.
All the free oxygen in our planetary atmosphere - our breath of life - is produced by plant life, and so is our food, either directly, as in all grains, fruit, vegetables, tubers and nuts, or indirectly via meat raised on grass and grains. When the plant life of the Earth is burned away by UVB radiation, there will be no free oxygen to speak of, and no food.
This spells the end for all oxygen-breathing organisms on the Earth - be this on the continents, or in the oceans - and only primitive fermenting organisms will survive in deep UVB sheltered places, along with the chemo-synthesizing organisms in the abysmal depths of the oceans. At this point, our planetary biosphere will collapse to an oxygen-less, and all but life-less desert planet.
To illustrate:
of many species of frogs and salamanders over the last decade - even in remote and pristine environments, while other amphibian species are unaffected or even thrive. This puzzling conundrum was resolved in 1995, when it was discovered that the increase in UVB radiation killed the eggs of those species which leave their egg clusters to incubate at the surface of warm pond waters. Other species, whose eggs incubate in UVB protected niches of their environment remain unaffected.
(see, "The Puzzle of Declining Amphibian Populations"; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, April 1995)
Chironomid larvae, and the adult fly, are a major
Worse, in the very near future we will see a sharp increase of skin cancer in our children. This will be far more devastating to our children because of the natural rapid growth of their growing phase.
This is inevitable.
The rate of increase of UVB radiation is well documented, and the UVB tolerance limit of most plant life is also well known, or if not, can be readily established with very simple tests. It can be done in highschool labs.
The intersection of these two well known factors - the increase of UVB radiation, and the UVB tolerance limit of plant life - gives us the date of the beginning of the collapse of our planetary biosphere.
Since all plant life is the sole producer of the oxygen (hence ozone) in our atmosphere, and the ultimate source of all food - at this point, the dynamics will be irreversible, and our planetary biosphere will begin its rapid, catastrophic collapse to an oxygen-less, and all but lifeless desert planet.
and before these current dynamics become permanently irreversible.
We need to 'green' the continents on a massive scale, and in the few years remaining to us while this is still possible - while green things will still grow - and before these dynamics become irreversible.
Fortunately, this can be done very quickly, very easily, and very, very cheaply.
It is well known that the plant life of the Earth generates all of the free oxygen (O2) of our planetary atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis. We also understand that ozone (O3) is a direct product of the free oxygen in our atmosphere. The dynamics are very simple and very straightforward. The more free oxygen there is in our atmosphere, the more ozone will be in our stratosphere. Conversely, the less O2 there is in our atmosphere, the less ozone will be in our stratosphere.
Until very recently, it was believed by all that marine photosynthesizing organism - single cells, plankton and seaweed - generate by far the great bulk of the free oxygen, and hence the ozone, in our atmosphere. This assumption was based on the fact that the oceans cover about 70% of the Earth's surface, whereas the continents cover only about 30% of the Earth's surface.
In 1988 I had submitted the then heretical assertion that, due to at least 7 simple physical factors, terrestrial or land-based photosynthesis - and not marine photosynthesis - is by far the major generating factor of the free oxygen, and hence the ozone, in our atmosphere. One of the major reasons for this is that the total photosynthetic surface of the needles and leaves of forests is about 700 times greater than the ground area covered by the forest. As it turned out, I was right.
In the last decade alone, the world-wide loss of forests amounted to 338 million acres, equal to the total land area of Spain, France and Germany combined ("Global Forest Cover"; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, Nov. 1996, page 32).
We are literally cutting off the primary and most important source of our oxygen, and hence the ozone in our atmosphere- and on a massive, planetary scale.1) The ozone level has been falling steadily and rapidly.
And while the much publicized CFSs are a strong contributing factor to the depletion of ozone at the north and south poles, this is not the only factor.
The ozone levels have also been falling by 1/2% per year over the mid-latitudes for the last 30 years - for a total reduction of 15% to date. Since the CFCs are not the causative factor of the ozone depletion over the mid-latitudes, only the decimation of continental green cover can account for this. This conclusion is substantiated by two well documented facts:
This is fully to be expected since most of the land mass of the Earth, and hence continental green cover, is located in the northern hemisphere. Consequently, the ozone loss will be greater over the southern hemisphere, and markedly less over the northern hemisphere.a) Ozone loss is greater over the southern hemisphere.
This is also fully to be expected since the deciduous component of continental green cover ceases photosynthetic activity over the winter months in the mid-latitudes, when deciduous plants are leafless and dormant. That ozone levels rise (!) again after the winter months is solid proof that continental green cover performs a major role in the regeneration of ozone.b) Ozone levels rise and fall seasonally.
2) The recent advent and escalation of climatic extremes.
The escalation of climatic extremes is driven by 2 factors:
UVB radiation carries higher energy than the visible spectrum of sunlight. Consequently, the sharp rise of incident UVB radiation over the last decade delivers more - and higher - energy to the surface of the Earth. This raises temperatures on the day-side of the Earth, causing greater temperature differentials between the day- and night-sides of the Earth. This causes greater turbulence, and force, of air movement in our global atmosphere. The consequence is a more turbulent climate, and more turbulent weather, of all kinds (record storms, rains, snow, floods, hail, heat, draughts), all over the world.a) The influx of higher energy
Climatic extremes around the world have now become an almost daily item in the news and, by now, all of us have personally experienced some of these extremes in one way or another.
As we have seen in the article on Climate, the vast amounts of water stored by continental forest cover temper continental climates just as effectively as the water of the oceans temper marine climates. The loss of vast tracts of forests - and the vast amounts of water they hold - results in greater daily and summer-winter temperature fluctuations.b) The decimation of continental forest cover.
For example. In the treeless deserts, daily temperatures range from near freezing at night to 130 degrees F. in the shade during the day - for a daily temperature swing of almost 100 degrees F.
Under the dense vegetation of the tropical rainforests though, daily temperature swings go from a low of 75 degrees F. at night to 95 degrees F. during the day - for a mere 20 degree F. difference.
This is entirely due to the thermal stability of the water stored by forests, or similar dense vegetation.
in a rapidly worsening feed-back cycle. Our massive eradication of continental green cover has triggered powerful natural forces which now dramatically reinforce what we have done, and keep on doing. We have initiated a powerful vicious cycle which will gain strength and escalate rapidly with every new round.
From now on, we will see progressively colder winters, progressively hotter summers, progressively more violent climatic extremes, new record highs and record lows every year; progressively worse storms, floods and droughts, along with all manner of unseasonable anomalies.
For instance. On April 6. 1997 the mid-western states experienced record flood levels from the spring melt of record snowfalls during the winter. Right on top of this, these states were hit by a late winter blizzard, and the affected areas faced record floods and a blizzard at the same time.(CNN news, April 6. 1997).
As described here in the article on our ability to use the creative forces of the universe, each phenomenon in this universe has its own specific 'Stratum of Stability' - all the way from protons and electrons, to stars and galaxies. So has our biosphere.
Over geological time, our planetary biosphere has flipped between two different climatic 'Strata of Stability' - Ice Ages, and 'Balmy Ages', commonly called 'Interglacial Periods' (see "What Drives Glacial Cycles?; SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, Jan. 1990).
One of the most familiar 'Strata of Stability' is that of fluid water. Water is fluid from 0 degrees C. to 100 degrees C. This is its fluid 'Stratum of Stability'. Below this, lies its solid Stratum of Stability (ice); and above lies its gaseous Stratum of Stability (water vapour). All of these Strata of Stability are energy determined, and the transitions from one to another are sudden and abrupt.
(If the Earth were colder so that all water would be ice everywhere - or if it were hotter so that water would be vapour everywhere - our biosphere would not exist. Indeed, why our planet is not a 'white planet' - permanently covered by ice everywhere - is a major puzzle in science. That our planet has this tendency is evident in the many Ice Ages of the Earth. Obviously, there are Stability factors at work which keep our planet from being permanently covered in ice).
This is the historical aspect of our weather - normal fluctuations within a long-term stable climate.
Our weather has become progressively more extreme, and every year now brings new record highs, and record lows, along with all manner of climatic extremes and anomalies. These climatic extremes show us that our biosphere has entered the "Threshold" phase to a phase-shift to another Stratum of Stability.
Just how acute a crisis though is realized by only a few people.
And none of these - and I repeat
- none of these -
are the consequences of the 'greenhouse effect'.It is a well documented fact that increasing UVB radiation has already begun (in 1990) to kill susceptible nascent organisms (frog and salamander eggs; chironimid larvae; crop seedlings - and I am certain we will find many more once we start looking for this). At the current rate of increase, increasing UVB radiation will begin to burn away the tender new growth of spring in the near future. Since all plant life is the one and only source of the oxygen in our atmosphere (our breath of life), and of our food, this marks the beginning of the catastrophic collapse of our biosphere to a barren, anoxic planet. At this point, the dynamics now well underway will be irreversible. We will reach this point in our time.
The climatic extremes we have experienced so far have been escalating rather rapidly, and will continue to do so. It will get progressively worse every year. Increasing climatic extremes make the growth and survival of plant life progressively more difficult, and finally, impossible. Again, this is the end of the oxygen and the food of our world. Some of our food crops have already begun to be severely affected by the current climatic extremes (the apple and strawberry industry of the U.S. Midwest, last year's grain crop in Western Canada, tender crops in California, and many more around the world). This will get worse year by year, until it will be impossible to grow anything.
Since continental vegetation generates fully 3/4 of the oxygen - and hence, ozone - in our global atmosphere, our massive eradication of continental forests and other green cover is destroying the primary and most important source of oxygen and ozone of our planet.
And since the water normally stored by continental forests and similar dense green vegetation tempers continental climates just as effectively as oceans temper marine climates, our massive eradication of continental forests also destroys the primary and sole Stability factor of our continental climates.
They are not. These are forces and factors - a powerful hot star, and a close planet - which are 'standard' throughout the universe. Indeed, it is highly probable that the powerful, unshielded radiation from our sun provided the ambient energy (a very warm ocean) to link common chemicals into progressively more complex configurations - until the first ephemeral stirring of Life on an originally barren and inhospitable planet emerged.
to create an oxygenated atmosphere and hence, an ozone shield which trapped the worst of the hard radiation from the sun, and made the migration of oxygen-breathing Life first into the surface waters, and 200 million years later - due to higher ozone levels - onto land, possible. So, these conditions have always existed, and still exist, outside of the Earth's protective ozone shield. Take away the hard-won ozone, as we are doing right now, and the Earth simply reverts to the unprotected 'outside' conditions - to a barren desert planet fried by hard radiation from the sun. And it will be a violent planet; the temperature differential between the day- and night-sides will be about 150 degrees C. causing never-ending sand storms the likes of which we cannot even imagine.
We are well on our way to create a brand-new 'Stratum of Stability' of our biosphere - a 'Desert Age' - which however, will last for hundreds of millions of years.
And because of the lack of free oxygen it will consist almost entirely of primitive fermenting organisms - as it did for so inconceivably long in the now long distant past.
As long as plants can still grow on the surface of the Earth - for another 10 to 15 years - we can restore the ozone shield to its historic level by greening every possible inch of surface of the Earth. But trees will not do; they take far too long to come into their full photosynthetic capacity in the short time remaining to us. Only the most hardy, aggressive and explosively rampant kinds of plants - hardy weeds are prime candidates - will do the job in the few years while this is possible, and before the current dynamics become permanently irreversible. Ironically perhaps, we need every last ounce of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere we can possibly produce to achieve this.
As long as there were only a relatively small number of people, a billion or less, thinly scattered over a relatively large planet, whatever we did had no lasting impact upon our planetary biosphere. As long as we were few, the natural forces and dynamics of our biosphere were of such comparative magnitude that any of our activities were readily compensated for by its natural forces and dynamics. Whatever we did, we could not hurt our biosphere.
Since we have become a global species, our survival now depends upon thinking and acting globally.
If we don't, we won't; it's that simple.
photosynthesis is, after all, the foundation of our existence. And this is easy; all of the immensely powerful forces of 'Nature' are in our favour; they have, after all, turned a once barren, life-less planet into the vast complexity of vibrantly rich and teeming biosphere - until we came along and started to screw things up. Moreover, we can employ these immensely powerful natural forces to create and maintain a rich and stable biosphere which will easily sustain our present numbers indefinitely. Given the understanding of these laws, along with the powerful advantage of sharply directed focus of human intent, as compared to the slow and haphazard ways of nature, we can achieve in ten years what nature achieves in a thousand.All of these dynamics arise out of the unification of Change and Stability into the new universal law of Change & Stability - Prigogine's "Threshold Dynamics", and the newly discovered law of Progressive Complexity. I had discovered items one and three in 1985. Ever since then, and long before any of this was apparent, I have made these predictions, many of them on public record, only to see them come true one by one, and in short order. At the same time, I had also predicted the sudden advent of new, mysterious, and ever more macabre diseases, and the rapid deterioration of our collective health. Of course, and as usual, nobody took any of my predictions seriously at the time.
- now that we have the knowledge - we can use it -
It is the first step towards creating and maintaining other biospheres on other planets, and a small step to the staggering immensity of our ultimate destiny.
The sole and explicit purpose of our inborn capacity to understand the laws of the universe is - to use them
© Peter Weis; Vancouver, BC; Canada; April 1997 ©
updated June 29. 1997
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