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Notably the S&P500 has charted out an Elliott Wave "diagonal triangle" since September.
This is a pattern that is usually observed into a culmination point, i.e., an Elliott Wave "fifth of a fifth".
See http://www.elliottwave.com/basics2.htm
In this case, a potential fifth of a fifth of a fifth....so on and so forth....into a Grand Supercycle top has formed. Another important characteristic of the diagonal triangle is that such a pattern is usually followed by a sharp reversal- something that implies a possible October crash (an example of such a reversal is the recent peak and plunge in the Malaysian stock market- see http://www.elliottwave.com/gmp-ewiww2.htm ).
As U.S. stock prices climb to unprecedented heights, events in the Middle East are moving rapidly toward what I have been warning the world about for the past six-and-a-half years:
Remarkably, my Kremlin Astrology Update appears to be on the mark for once.
Mars, the planet of violence and war, and Pluto, the planet of death and nuclear energy ("pluto"nium), moved into exact conjunction last Friday (10/3) and yesterday the Moon passed by the conjunct planets. As I have been pointing out for years, a pretty strong case can be made that Saddam Hussein, acting in cahoots with Moscow, is taking action and shaping history according to astrology. When Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2nd, 1990, a lunar eclipse was squared by Mars and Pluto (which were aligned via an opposition of the planets). Now, as Mars and Pluto are again aligned, Saddam is back in action.
Since last Friday, when the U.S. ordered an aircraft carrier to hurry to the Persian Gulf in response to recent Iraqi and Iranian violations of a "No-Fly Zone" in southern Iraq, there has been new Iraqi No-Fly Zone violations- violations that must have come very close to eliciting a U.S. military response since warnings have already been issued. Also, a U.N. facility in Baghdad was bombed on Sunday and today a U.N. convoy came under fire in northern Iraq (Baghdad is held responsible for the protection of U.N. personnel and facilities). All in all, since the conjunction of Mars and Pluto, Saddam has been busy picking a new fight with the West. Once the U.S. is foolish enough to take military action against Iraq, you can bet Saddam's Revenge will follow. (Yet, no one seems to be the least bit concerned as reflected by the record height of U.S. stock prices.)
In anticipation of what may be Saddam's imminent revenge and the destruction of Israel and the West, please read the Persian Gulf Deception and its Epilogue at this time.
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"Iraq still violating 'no fly' zone, U.S. says"
By ROBERT BURNS, The Associated Press
WASHINGTON (October 7, 1997 8:40 p.m. EDT) -- Iraqi aircraft are
continuing to violate the U.S.-enforced "no-fly" zone in southern
and northern Iraq, but American warplanes patrolling those areas
have not responded, Pentagon officials said Tuesday.
Navy Capt. Michael Doubleday, a Pentagon spokesman, said there
had been "several" Iraqi violations in recent days, but he would
not be more specific, except to say the Iraqis were "skirting"
the zone, mostly during daylight.
Other defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said
two Iraqi fighters had entered the southern no-fly zone on
Tuesday without drawing fire from U.S. planes.
The United States "continues to enforce the no-fly zone,"
Doubleday said, "and we will do so in the future." He said U.S.
Air Force planes flying from Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have
stepped up the number of patrol flights in recent days.
He declined to explain why U.S. enforcement of the zone had
failed to stop the violations. He would not say, for example,
whether the U.S. planes had not been in position to fire on the
Iraqis or whether they had deliberately refrained from firing.
British and French fighters also are patrolling the southern
zone.
Doubleday said the Clinton administration had signaled to Iraq
its seriousness about enforcing the no-fly zone when Defense
Secretary William Cohen last week ordered the Nimitz carrier
battle group to skip a port call in Singapore in order to arrive
on station in the Persian Gulf ahead of schedule.
"If they do carry out flight operations, they risk getting shot
down," Doubleday said. "We've done that in the past. We stand
ready to do it in the future. But I'm not in a position to
predict if and when that will occur."
U.S. Navy 5th Fleet ships already in the Gulf include five
destroyers, three guided-missile frigates and two mine
countermeasure ships. No aircraft carrier is in the Gulf now.
The no-fly zone over southern Iraq was created after the 1991
Gulf War to stop Iraqi government forces from crushing rebel
groups. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein considers the restriction
an unwarranted violation of Iraqi sovereignty.
On Sept. 29, Iranian planes bombed bases in southern Iraq held by
Iranian rebel groups. The next day the Clinton administration
said it had put Iran on notice that, if its pilots again intrude
into that air space, they risk getting shot down.
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"Shots fired at U.N. convoy in northern Iraq"
BAGHDAD (October 7, 1997 09:28 a.m. EDT) - A U.N. convoy came
under fire near the Turkish border in Kurdish-held northern Iraq
but there were no casualties, a U.N. spokesman announced
Tuesday. It was the third attack on U.N. humanitarian operations
in Iraq in a week.
Eric Falt, spokesman for the coordinator of U.N. humanitarian
operations in Iraq, said around 50 shots were fired at the convoy
of five vehicles in Monday's attack. One of the bullets hit a
car.
"According to preliminary information, the shots came from a
mountainous region held by the PKK," the Kurdistan Workers' Party
fighting the Turkish army, Falt told AFP.
The attack on the convoy of vehicles belonging to UN guards and
the World Food Program took place near Chiladiza, some 20 miles
from the Turkish border in the Dahuk region, Falt said.
Turkish troops have been deployed in northern Iraq, including
Dahuk, to hunt down Turkish Kurd separatists of the PKK.
The latest attack came three days after grenades were hurled at a
building in Baghdad housing offices of the World Health
Organization and U.N. "oil-for-food" program. No casualties were
reported in that attack.
The United Nations insisted after the Baghdad attack that it was
the responsibility of Iraqi authorities to ensure the security of
its staff and offices in the capital.
But northern Iraq has been under the control of rival Iraqi
Kurdish groups, in defiance of Baghdad, since 1991.
Falt said Monday's shooting was the second attack on the U.N.
humanitarian mission in northern Iraq, where the FAO is in charge
of food distribution to the Kurds.
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"Gunmen attack U.N. office in Baghdad"
CAIRO, Egypt (October 5, 1997 11:40 a.m. EDT) -- Gunmen hurled
grenades and fired bullets at a U.N. office in Baghdad,
destroying one vehicle and damaging three others, officials said
Sunday.
One attacker was injured and taken into custody by the Iraqi
army, according to a U.N. statement. The remaining three
attackers fled, it said.
The Saturday night assault targeted the World Health
Organization's headquarters in Baghdad, which houses an office
for U.N. officials monitoring the oil-for-food program.
No one claimed responsibility. It was not clear how the captured
gunman was injured.
According to preliminary reports, the four men also lobbed
grenades and opened fire at the WHO building, the statement said.
Eric Falt, spokesman for the oil-for-food program, told The
Associated Press in Dubai the attack came after office hours and
only guards were at the building.
The roof of the carport was partially burned, Falt said. One
four-wheel drive vehicle was destroyed and three others severely
damaged, he said.
U.N. humanitarian coordinator in Baghdad, Denis Halliday,
condemned the attack, the first ever at a U.N. building in Iraq,
the statement said.
"It is the Iraqi government's responsibility to protect U.N.
personnel and property against any harm and Mr. Halliday has
asked for an urgent meeting at the highest levels with the Iraqi
leaders in order to express his concern," said the statement.
No one claimed responsibility.
Iraq has been under U.N. sanctions banning the sale of oil, its
economic mainstay, since its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. But a U.N.
program, put in place in December 1996, allows Iraq to sell $1
billion of crude every 90 days to buy needed food and medicine
under close U.N. supervision.
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"U.N. worried about biological arms materials in Iraq"
By Evelyn Leopold, Reuters
UNITED NATIONS (October 7, 1997 7:40 p.m. EDT) - Six years after
U.N. arms experts began hunting down Iraq's dangerous weapons,
the chief U.N. arms inspector said Baghdad was imposing new
restrictions on inspection teams and concealing vital data on
biological warfare, according to a report circulated on Tuesday.
Richard Butler, head of the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) in
charge of ridding Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, told the
Security Council Iraq had made progress on data about ballistic
and chemical weapons programs.
But he said in his 40-page report that Baghdad failed to "give a
remotely credible account" on biological arms.
He also gave the council enough ammunition to back up its threat
of further sanctions against Iraq, but diplomats said they
expected a delay before any possible action was taken.
The council in June, after negotiations between Presidents Bill
Clinton and Boris Yeltsin of Russia at a G-7 summit in Denver,
adopted a resolution expressing its "firm intention to impose
additional measures" on Iraqi officials responsible for barring
U.N. inspectors, depending on Butler's report.
But the council instead may lengthen the time period of its
threat of new sanctions, such as a travel ban on top Iraq
officials. It will discuss the report on Oct. 16.
The report is the first from Butler, Australia's former U.N.
ambassador, since he took over the post from Rolf Ekeus of Sweden
in July.
Oil traders said the market was expected to remain turbulent as a
result of the report. "You can pretty much take a line and draw
it across daily oil price charts, and find that each time a key
date for Iraq comes up, there is a price jolt," said one trader,
who asked that his name be withheld.
Butler said Iraq had a choice of telling the truth or remaining
under stringent U.N. trade sanctions, imposed when it invaded
Kuwait in August 1990. A clean bill of health from the commission
is necessary for oil exports to flow freely.
"The commission is convinced of the need for the council to
insist that Iraq meet its obligation to fully disclose all of its
prohibited weapons and associated programs," he said.
"There is no substitute for this whole truth," he added.
Butler listed a series of incidents from June to October, on
Iraqi interference with inspections and several times mentioned
Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz as uncooperative.
"In the period under review, the commission has encountered a
pattern of Iraqi blockages and evidence of removal and/or
destruction of documents and material at sensitive sites under
inspection," he said.
On biological weapons, the report said Iraq repeatedly attempted
to "trivialize" its program, that began in the early 1970s and
"suffered only minor hiccups over its 20 year history." At
present the commission was still uncertain how many materials
remained.
The commission two years ago discovered that Iraq filled 191
bombs, artillery shells and missiles with germs and other
biological agents for possible use in the 1991 Gulf War.
The report said that Iraq's latest purported final account of
this program, submitted on Sept. 11, was studied by 15 experts
from 13 countries. They concluded it was "incomplete and contains
significant inaccuracies." Materials listed appeared to be
"vastly understated by Iraq," the report said.
On ballistic missiles, the report said some 817 of the 819 long
range operational missiles Iraq imported in the period ending
1988 had been accounted for.
But it said that accounting of missile warheads and proscribed
missile propellants has not yet been completed, while "no
verifiable material balance from many critical missile components
and materials from Iraq's indigenous missile production program
can be established."
On chemical weapons, the commission, which described the program
as one "of enormous scope," said it was "pleased to record the
significant progress made."
But it said Iraq still needed to account for special missile
warheads intended for filling with chemical or biological warfare
agents, 155 mm mustard gas shells and the extent of its program
for producing the most toxic chemical nerve agent VX.
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"Showdown over Iraq, U.N. policy shaping up"
Associated Press, 10/06/97 01:42
UNITED NATIONS (AP) - A major showdown over new Iraqi sanctions
is taking shape in the U.N. Security Council, and the outcome
could have serious consequences for U.S. policy not only in the
Middle East but with Russia, France and China as well.
By Saturday, U.N. weapons inspectors must submit to the council
a report on whether Iraq has been complying with U.N. orders to
allow the investigators access to sites where Baghdad may be
hiding banned weapons.
Last week, the team said the Iraqis blocked inspectors from
three sites - two in Baghdad and one north of the city. Chief
inspector Richard Butler has demanded an explanation from Iraq's
deputy prime minister, Tariq Aziz.
It was not the first time Iraq has prevented inspectors from
sites. But this case is more important than the others because
of the potential for trouble with Russia, China and perhaps the
French. All three - along with the United States and Britain -
are permanent Security Council members with veto powers.
The sanctions - in place since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 - are
widely unpopular. The French and Russians are anxious to resume
commercial links with Baghdad. China is also ready to do
business with the Iraqis.
Arab countries resent that sanctions are usually reserved for
wayward Arab regimes - such as Libya and Iraq - when the
Americans refuse to join the council at all in criticizing
Israel for its building settlements in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip.
Following a standoff with the Iraqis last spring, the United
States and Britain submitted a resolution in June asking the
council to impose travel restrictions on Iraqi military and
intelligence officers.
The Russians, Chinese and French opposed additional sanctions.
Russia's U.N. ambassador, Sergey Lavrov, informed his colleagues
he would veto the Anglo-American resolution.
But President Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed
last spring to give Baghdad until the October report to
demonstrate cooperation. The two expressed their ``firm
intention'' to impose new sanctions if Baghdad continued its
obstructionist ways.
If the U.N. inspectors submit an unfavorable report this week,
it would be up to the Clinton Administration and the British to
decide whether to ask the council to consider new measures.
It would then be up to the current council president, Juan
Somavia of Chile, to schedule Security Council debate, which
could delay a showdown for several days after the report is
submitted.
That could delay a showdown for several more days once the
report has been submitted. That would give more time for the USS
Nimitz, a U.S. aircraft carrier, to reach the Gulf.
The Pentagon, in announcing last week that the Nimitz was
heading to the region, linked the carrier's presence to recent
Iranian airstrikes against opposition groups operating from
bases in Iraq. But the carrier could conceivably be used for
punitive action against Baghdad.
Privately, Russian diplomats at the United Nations have been
urging moderation, telling reporters that despite lapses, Iraq
has genuinely tried to comply with U.N. orders to dismantle
banned weapons systems and offer proof to the inspectors.
The Russians noted that although the Iraqis barred inspectors
from three sites, they allowed them access to seven.
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"Turkish jets attack rebel forces in Iraq"
DIYARBAKIR, Turkey (October 7, 1997 1:46 p.m. EDT) - Turkish jets
launched attacks on Kurdistan Workers Party guerrilla positions
in northern Iraq on Tuesday as clashes between the PKK rebels and
an Iraqi Kurd faction backed by Turkey spread.
Turkish military officials said F-16 jets had launched bombing
raids on the Khwakurk area of northern Iraq from a base in
southeast Turkey.
A Turkish army official in Ankara told Reuters the rebel death
toll had reached 538 in the 3-week-old military incursion into
the mountainous region.
The official gave no figure for Turkish losses but said four
soldiers were wounded during the latest clashes in the area.
Turkish artillery helped its Iraqi Kurd allies -- the Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP) -- kill 10 PKK guerrillas near the Zab
camp in northern Iraq, KDP radio monitored by Anatolian news
agency said.
Around 15,000 Turkish troops crossed the border three weeks ago
in a push against the PKK, who use the remote region to launch
attacks in their fight for self-rule in southeast Turkey.
The operation has been condemned by Baghdad and neighboring Iran.
Northern Iraq has been outside Baghdad's control since the end of
the 1991 Persian Gulf war.
Gunmen in the region fired on a convoy of five U.N. vehicles
Monday, a U.N. official in Baghdad said Tuesday.
He said no one was hurt in the incident 19 miles from the Turkish
border, close to positions held by the PKK.
"They were ambushed by a group of armed men who fired about 50
rounds of automatic weapons. It is possible that small caliber
mortars were used in the attack," Eric Falt, spokesman for Iraq's
U.N. coordinator, told Reuters.
More than 26,000 people have been killed in 13 years of conflict
between Turkish forces and the PKK, mostly in Turkey.
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"Iraq promises retaliate to strike back if Iran attacks again"
BAGHDAD (October 6, 1997 10:58 a.m. EDT) - An Iraqi government
newspaper warned Iran on Monday that Baghdad would retaliate to
any new attacks against Iranian opposition bases in Iraq.
"Aggression against a free and independent country will not be
easy and we shall pay (Tehran) back twofold," al-Jumhouriya daily
said in a commentary.
Jumhouriya was reacting to remarks by Iran's Foreign Minister
Kamal Kharrazi that Tehran had the right to attack Iranian
"terrorist" opposition groups in Iraq.
"This is a right to self-defence," Kharrazi told the London-based
Arabic newspaper al-Hayat when asked whether Tehran planned to
renew raids on Iraqi territory.
"As long as the terrorist groups are committing terrorist acts
against our territory we have the right to defend ourselves,"
Kharrazi added in last week's interview conducted in New York.
"The remarks show exposed hypocrisy and playing with words for
the service of dubious political ends," Jumhouriya
"We find in Kharrazi's statement a new challenge to international
law ... and it is the duty of the world body (U.N.) to denounce
it."
Iran has protested to the United Nations over what it said were
"terrorist" cross-border attacks from Iraq and said the
incursions prompted its air raids on Iranian Mujahideen Khalq
rebel bases inside Iraq last week.
Iran has said the raids were not intended against its 1980-88
Gulf War foe Iraq.
"We are exerting efforts to open new windows with Iraq. I have
met with Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Sahaf ... our talks
were frank and we have decided to continue these talks," Kharrazi
said of a meeting held on the outlines of the U.N. General
Assembly meeting last week.
Jumhouriya said Kharrazi's remarks ran contrary to those he made
during his meeting with Sahaf in New York. "His statement
contradicts what he personally told Sahaf that Iran is ready to
open a new political dialogue with Iraq ... based on respect and
non-aggression."
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"Iran threatens more raids in Iraq"
DUBAI (October 5, 1997 07:40 a.m. EDT) - Iran on Sunday
threatened to carry out more raids on opposition bases across the
border in Iraq, after an air strike which prompted the U.S. to
rush an aircraft carrier back to the Gulf.
"So long as terrorist groups conduct operations against our
territory, it will be our right to defend ourselves," Foreign
Minister Kamal Kharazi told the London-based Arabic newspaper Al-
Hayat.
"We have said many times we can not tolerate terrorist attacks
from across the border on our villages and pipelines," he said.
"That is why we decided to carry out a raid on their camps to
defend ourselves, which is our right."
The United States said Friday it had dispatched an aircraft
carrier battle group to the Gulf in the wake of Iran's incursion
into a "no-fly zone" in southern Iraq to carry out the raids on
the opposition People's Mujahedeen.
The accelerated deployment of the USS Nimitz and accompanying
warships "is related to our ability to carry out the
responsibility given to us by the international community," White
House spokesman Michael McCurry said.
The United States has warned that the incursions into the no-fly
zone could put Iranian pilots at risk.
The Nimitz, skipping a port call in Singapore, was now expected
to arrive in six days, rather than mid-October as scheduled, U.S.
defense department spokesman Kenneth Bacon said Friday.
"It's going over there to show we're serious about enforcing the
no-fly zone," he said.
Iraq has protested over the raids carried out on September 29 and
called for a ban on Iraqi flights in the south and north of the
country to be lifted to allow it to defend itself.
The "no-fly zones" for Iraqi aircraft were imposed by the United
States and its allies following the 1991 Gulf War.
The Mujahedeen said Iran's warplanes struck two of its bases near
the border, southeast and northeast of the capital. It was Iran's
first air strike since 1993 but the group has been the target of
several attacks by land.
The raid came three days after a meeting in New York between
Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammad Said al-Sahhaf and Kharazi on
normalizing relations between the two countries, which fought a
1980-1988 war.
Kharazi, in the interview with Al-Hayat, ruled out a halt to such
dialogue. "We must try to open doors," he said, while noting that
the issue of the Iranian opposition based in Iraq was an
obstacle.
He also played down the prospects of a three-country alliance,
between Iraq, Iran and Syria, its main Arab ally. "I don't think
such an axis is possible at the moment ... There are still
outstanding questions with Iraq," he said.
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"Iranian war games to coincide with
Nimitz arrival in Persian Gulf"
Associated Press, 10/07/97 14:47
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - As the USS Nimitz sped Tuesday toward the
Persian Gulf to keep Iran and Iraq in check, Iran's defense
minister announced new naval maneuvers this week involving more
than 50 warships.
Ali Shamkhani said the 10-day exercises would begin Saturday.
On Friday, the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz was ordered to head to
the region two weeks ahead of schedule in response to Sept. 29
raids by Iranian jets on two Iraqi bases of an Iranian opposition
group, the Mujahedeen Khalq.
The Clinton administration told Iran its raids violated a U.S.-
enforced ``no-fly'' zone in southern Iraq and could trigger
retaliation. It also warned Iraq not to attempt other flights.
The Nimitz is expected to arrive in the region by mid-October.
Shamkhani said the exercises would be carried out in a 15,000-
square-mile area by Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Iran's main
fighting force.
Three Russian submarines in service with the Iranian navy also
would take part in the maneuvers, along with scores of warplanes,
helicopters and machine-gun mounted speedboats.
Iran condemns the presence of more than 20,000 U.S. forces in the
Persian Gulf, which it considers its own sphere of influence.
The United States maintains about 20 combat and support ships in
the Persian Gulf at all times. The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet is based
in Bahrain.
Also Tuesday, the chiefs of staff of the six Gulf Cooperation
Council nations announced that they would hold joint air force
exercises. They did not give a date for the maneuvers. The GCC
groups Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the United
Arab Emirates.
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Global Intelligence Update Red Alert
October 7, 1997
"U.S. in Quandary Over Iranian Moves"
On the surface, tensions appear to be rising between the United
States and Iran. Following the Iranian air raids on anti-Iranian
rebel bases in Iraq, the United States announced that it was
moving the carrier Nimitz from Singapore to the Persian Gulf to
block further Iranian raids. The Iranians have announced that
they are going to carry out naval maneuvers in the northern
Persian Gulf, code named Victory 8, which will include three
Russian-supplied Kilo Class submarines. According to Kurdish
sources in London, Iran has begun massing military forces along
the Iraqi border, moving armored and artillery units to the
border area between Qala Diza, Hajj Umran and Hezhen. So,
tensions between the U.S. and Iran appear to be ratcheting upward
as both sides bring military forces to bear. As usual, however,
things are not altogether as they might appear.
The Beirut Times reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal
Kharrazi announced that Iran is ready to re-establish relations
with the United States if the United States were to demonstrate
good-will toward Iran. Noting that the United States had issued
a call for dialogue with Iran, Kharrazi stated that he did not
feel that the U.S. was sincere, but made it clear that Iran was
ready for some sort of reconciliation. Kharrazi defined the
required American sincerity with sparkling clarity. Iran wants
the release of frozen assets, the removal of sanctions, and an
end to anti-Iranian propaganda. Notably absent from the list is
any mention of U.S. support for Israel. Kharrazi went on to say
that, "If these principles are met, there will be no reason why
we should continue to have this type of relationship with the
U.S.. While these would not be difficult for the U.S. to
implement, he made no mention of American requirements that Iran
stop support for terrorists. However, by dropping the demand on
Israel, he intentionally left room for discussion.
At the same time, Tehran was holding its options open. Unnamed
high level Iranian sources were reported by the London-based
newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat as saying that last week's raid, "was
an exception and should not be seen as fixed Iranian policy
towards Iraq." In addition, the newspaper reported that Iraqi
Health Minister Umid Midhat would travel to Tehran over the
weekend to participate in a UN meeting being held there, and that
the Iraqis regard this as a positive sign of Iranian flexibility.
Of course, Iraq threatened retaliation if Iran continued to
attack Iraqi territory.
Everyone is trying to make sense of the situation. The Mideast
Mirror has suggested the following scenario. Turkey is looking
to occupy northern Iraq as far south as Mosul with its oil
fields. Iran wishes to take Basra and the Shatt al-Arab, heavily
fought over during the Iran-Iraq war. All of this is prelude to
the main event. In addition, according to the Mirror, the
Syrians are afraid that Turkish ambitions will extend as far as
northeastern Syria, where Kurds are also active. In short, the
fear is that Turkey and Iran have reached an agreement to
dismember Iraq in a massive, anti-Arab strike.
From the American point of view, there is good news and bad news.
The good news is that the dreaded Damascus-Baghdad-Tehran axis
seems to have disintegrated. The bad news is that there are some
serious signs that Tehran is interested in reversing the outcome
of the Iran-Iraq war. This is certainly not in the U.S.
interest. The United States wants to preserve the balance of
power between Iran and Iraq, preventing either side from
dominating the Persian Gulf. Iran appears to be extending an
olive branch to the United States, but the price clearly is
permitting Iran a free hand to deal with Iraq. At the same time,
in making conciliatory gestures toward Iraq, Iran is signaling to
the United States not to take Iran for granted, showing that Iran
has not locked itself into an anti-Iraqi stance and that it
retains both flexibility and options.
Since intervention on behalf of Baghdad is unthinkable and since
Turkey, a stalwart American ally, is deeply involved in this, the
United States is in a deep quandary has to how to proceed. If it
responds to Iran's offer of detente, it opens the door to Iranian
ambitions. If it rejects the offer, it risks driving Iran and
Iraq closer together.
The Nimitz will be on station shortly. We wonder what its
mission will be.
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