Toxicological Data Extrapolation and Uncertainty in Relative Comparisons
.Pennington D.W.
ORISE Research Fellow, Systems Analysis Branch,
NRMRL, US EPA, Cincinnati, OH
Process alternatives, policy
options and product life-cycles can be compared in terms of their
potential contribution to toxicological effects associated with chronic
exposures. These applications involve relative comparisons and can be
performed using standard risk assessment paradigms. However, unlike
most risk screening approaches that aim to be
somewhat conservative, it is important that the comparisons are made
using
consistent data and assumptions. In this presentation, the uncertainty
associated with the toxicological component of relative comparisons is
considered and
significant differences with the techniques used in risk screening are
highlighted.
It is demonstrated that the uncertainty associated with the toxicity
component for each chemical in a relative comparison can be four orders
of magnitude for aquatic ecosystems, for non-carcinogenic impacts in
mammalian species including humans and for carcinogenic impacts. This
uncertainty is dependent on the number of measured test results
available, the test endpoint applicability (e.g. acute, chronic), the
types of extrapolations performed and what estimation models, if any,
are used.
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