BLACKJACK Basic Strategy

 If you apply the basic strategy, the expected return is -0.67%

This means that if you bet $2 on each hand, you will lose $1.34 for every 100 hands
you play. You can probably play about 60 hands an hour, so you will lose approximately
80 cents an hour (this is a long-term average). If you opt for the complimentary coffees or
soft drinks, this will annul this loss!
             

*Disclaimer* If you gamble using any of the strategies suggested here, you do so entirely at your
own risk. I accept no responsibility for any consequences that may result through applying the
information presented here.

You have been warned!

Follow these rules, for optimum play.

X stands for any picture card (J, Q, K).

A soft hand is one that contains an Ace counted as 11. It is soft because the total can
be reduced by counting the Ace as 1 instead of 11.

A hard hand is one that does not contain an Ace counted as 11. It is hard because the
total is fixed and cannot be reduced.

(1) If dealt a pair, check if you should split.
A-A : always split
8-8 : always split
9-9 : split against 2-9 except 7
7-7 : split against 2-7
6-6 : split against 3-6
3-3 : split against 4-7
2-2 : split against 4-7

X-X : never split
5-5 : never split
4-4 : never split
(2) If not splitting, check if you should double.

11 : double against 2-9 (do not double against X or A)
10 : double against 2-9 (do not double against X or A)
9 : double against 3-6
(3) If not doubling, check if you should hit or stand.

SOFT hands (i.e. includes an A counted as 11) :

19,20,21 : always stand
18 : stand against 2-8, hit against 9,X,A
12-17 : always hit

HARD hands (i.e. no A counted as 11) :

17-21 : always stand
13-16 : hit against 7-A, stand against 2-6
12 : stand against 4-6, hit against 2,3 and 7-A

The strategy is based on mathematical probabilities. I used my analysis programs to
figure out this strategy, which fortunately agrees with other sources of
Basic Blackjack Strategy.
Rationale

If the dealer's card is 2 to 6, there is about a 40% chance of the dealer going bust.
If the dealer's card is 7 to A, there is only a 25% chance of the dealer going bust.

Because of this, it is wise to try to get to 17 or more if the dealer's card is
7,8,9,X or A; whereas it is worthwhile sticking below 17 and hoping the dealer
will go bust if the dealer's card is 2,3,4,5,6.

Your worst hands are when your first two cards do not include aces, and total 12
to 16 (with 16 being the very worst). The strategy is really an attempt to minimise
your losses.

Because a total of 16 is so bad, you should always split a pair of eights. You will
almost always improve your hand.

Your strongest initial hand is obviously Blackjack.

Your next strongest is A-A, which you should always split.

Then, in order :

20 (including X-X pair),
11 ,
19 ,
10 (including 5-5),
9-9 ,
soft 18.

Initial 11 and 10 are strong, because you can double. You must make sure you double
when the strategy says you should, because at those times the deal is in your favour.

All other combinations are weak, because they all favour the dealer.

The Basic Strategy is calculated assuming an even deck - in other words, there is always a
1 in 13 chance of getting a particular card. However, the chances of getting a particular card
will vary as the deck is dealt, depending on how many times that card has already appeared.

If you make note of the cards that have been dealt, you can work out when the mix of
cards remaining are in your favour. This is the basis of the Card Counting Strategies,
described next.


The next page explains Card Counting Strategies

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