Date: 11/13/99
Port of Call: Hampton, VA
Subject: Weather or Not to Go?
We left Annapolis, Maryland on Sunday, November 7th, and had a wonderful sail down the upper Chesapeake Bay to Solomons, Maryland. That sail was especially nice for a number of reasons: the wind was from the right direction; it was strong enough to give us good boat speed (our high for that day was 8.2 knots); the seas were small; and the weather forecast was correct. It doesn't sound like much, but when the National Weather Service forecasts weather that is in our favor, and then the weather actually turns out as predicted, it is an event worthy of special note.
The following day we were not so lucky. The forecast was for northwest winds around 10 knots shifting to southwest in the afternoon. We have learned from experience that such a forecast can mean anything from "light and variable winds" to "it's going to blow a gale after the wind shift". We banked on the first translation of the forecast, and wound up motoring in light EAST winds to our next anchorage at a place mysteriously named Antipoison Creek.
On Tuesday, the forecast was not favorable for continuing south through the lower Chesapeake Bay. "Southwest winds 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 this afternoon," the computer synthesized voice on the radio told us, "seas one foot, increasing to two feet". We were anxious to get to Hampton, where we had a number of packages waiting for us, and we didn't want to miss the possibility of a favorable weather window for passage south by waiting for the winds to change. So, despite the unfavorable forecast, we decided to go south that day.
I am developing a set of theories about weather forecasting. My first axiom will be something to the effect of: "If the weather forecast is favorable, it must be wrong. If the weather forecast is unfavorable, it is probably right, though if it is wrong, the error will not be in your favor." I suspect that using this rule will be a whole lot more accurate than relying on government forecasters.
It was certainly true that the unfavorable forecast was more correct than usual, though the errors were mostly not in our favor. We wound up motoring into uncomfortable head seas that were larger than forecast, and which drastically slowed our progress. Still, towards the end of the day the conditions calmed down enough that we were able to make it to Hampton, Virginia before nightfall.
Hampton, VA--Painting numbers on the dinghy while waiting for a weather window
Another cruising
sailor we know of appears to have come to similar conclusions about government-provided
weather forecasts. The story we have heard is that while on an ocean
passage he ran into some severe weather that was not what was predicted.
He was able to make it to port, no thanks to the weatherman. He decided
as a result of that experience to start providing personalized forecasts
to mariners free of charge. The name of this renegade meteorologist
is Herb Hilgenberg, and he spends hours every day on the radio, both listening
to and talking to boaters.
With Herb's help, we are hoping to find a favorable weather window to make the passage from Hampton, Virginia to Bermuda. It should take approximately seven days for the trip, so we are especially interested in obtaining the most accurate information available. We are looking forward to cruising to new and more exotic destinations.
Smooth Sailing,
Jim and Cathy