The Game of Chance (Jeu du Chance) can be found at every social establishment in Paris, from the lowest den of thievery to the perfumed parlors of The Fleur de Lys. It would astonish me if the reader of this treatise has not observed the play of said game, if not actually subjecting his purse to the vagaries of Fortune. But does Fortune really have anything to do with the outcome? A careful examination of the game by this author revealed the following interesting fact: Over time, even the most skilled "professional" gambler will lose more than he will win. A mathematical explanation of this startling fact along with advice for the betting gentleman follows.

The Odds

A quick glance at the rules of Jeu du Chance reveals that the player will beat the house an average of 15 times for every 36 wagers placed if the player plays "straight," cutting his bet when the house rolls a 6 and taking his turn when the house rolls a 5 or less. The intelligent gentleman would therefore expect to lose almost three times for every two wins. The reader does not need me to tell him that these are not favourable odds.

I have examined Jeu du Chance by the more exacting method known as "expected value." My examination shows that the gentleman can reduce his losses further by cutting when the house rolls a 5 as well as a 6, and otherwise taking his turn. The result is expressed in crowns as follows (where the crowns wagered is x):

By cutting on a 5 and 6, and playing on 4 and below, the gentleman can expect to realize – 1/18 x over time. Thus, even the skilled gentleman can expect to lose five and a half crowns for every 100cr wagered. It is no wonder that there is at least one gaming table in every public establishment in Paris!

In conclusion, all of the fathers and Fathers who have warned us of the dangers gambling poses to the purse were right. It is to them that this treatise is dedicated, but it is for you that it is written.


An Inquiry into the Divine Right of Kings
by Michel Grognard, Aug 1621

It has been custom for centuries to defer to the wisdom of Aristotle in most matters, and political theory is no different than most subjects in this regard. His view of kinds of government (monarchy, aristocracy and democracy) are useful in many ways, but in terms of the Divine role in the government of Man, Aristotle lacks the Christian perspective – not surprisingly as he lived long before the coming of our Lord.

Aristotle’s pagan world was one of many false gods, powerful but not perfect or infinite. It has been revealed to us that God is all-knowing, all-powerful, just and merciful. The implications of this in political thought are immense.

God has ordained that each of us is born into our station in life to serve His divine will. The peasant in his field, the merchant in his shop, the priest in his church are all there because it is God’s plan and will. As there is no power greater, it cannot be otherwise. Every event, every life, every death is known to God before it even occurs.

In the case of Kings, God put them in their station as well. Why? Clearly because the person God has chosen is the appropriate ruler of a country at the time. Our own King Louis was born to rule because it is God’s will that he rule France at this time in the history of Man. And it follows that because God is all-knowing, all-powerful, just and merciful the reign of King Louis over France is in accordance with divine will. Whosoever stands against his king must, therefore, stand against God, twice damned as traitor and blasphemer.

But what of bad kings? They, too, are God’s will. The suffering of Spain under Phillip even now is part of God’s justice for the kingdom of Spain. He is their punishment for past sins.

It follows, too, His Majesty’s decisions and the appointment of his ministers are part of God’s ultimate plan for mankind’s salvation. If ministers pursue policies that benefit the kingdom, it is because the kingdom merits it. If they pursue those that are destructive of the kingdom, it is in retribution for past failings.


An Observation on Indian Peoples
by Laurent d'Anjou, Mar 1622

The discovery of the New World in the West has led to interaction with groups of peoples indigenous to that land. These people, called Indians, populate the entire New World in groups of tribes stretching from Spanish possessions in the far South to New France in the north. These Indians have proven to be beneficial to our brave explorers and missionaries and are eager to become subjects to our great King Louis. The following is a description and an account of Otter Probert, a Christianized savage who recently toured Paris.

Mssr. Probert is a member of a tribe called the Hurons in the Southern part of New France. His tribe is a wandering group of nomads and subsist mainly on meat and fish gained through hunting. Agricultural products are not a large part of their diet, except for the occasional berries or roots in time of famine. The effect of this diet is easily discernable when one notices his teeth, which are more pronounced for the purposes of tearing flesh than found in the civilized people. His complexion is many shades darker than those found in Europe. His body hair is a jet black, although I'm told that brown is not uncommon. Blonde or red hair is unheard of among these peoples. Otter Probert exhibits amazing physical prowess, not uncommon in people who still fight their battles with rudimentary melee weapons such as knives and clubs. They are also a sickly people taken with a variety of colds, allergies and diseases.

These Indians pride themselves on feats of physical strength and dexterity. They do not use the weapons of gentlemen to dual, but instead engage in wrestling or often fatal knife fighting. Their forms of recreation, again, involve around physical activity. This is not surprising since the primary focus of Indian life is warfare. Indian nobles and leaders are chosen solely from their skill on the battlefield. These battles are small-scale affairs that are more like raids and often evolve into hand-hand conflict. There is much skulking and sneaking about the Indian battlefields, with little in the way of regimental tactics. Instead these "battles" result in a large chaotic melee with 1-1 struggles in a fight for honor. Personal glory seems to be more important than helping your tribe win a battle or raid.

In the matters of the spirit, Indians are a heathen people desperately in need of salvation. Already courageous French priests are attempting to help these pagans find the light. Currently, the Indians engage in petty ancestor worship and rudimentary nature worship. The particular idols vary from tribe to tribe with sometimes the sun or other times a great spirit achieving the paramount place in the savage pantheon. Christian missionaries have met with mixed success in dealing with the Indian people. Some, like Otter Probert, have renounced their wicked ways and joined the Church flock, while others have, unfortunately strongly resisted salvation even resorting to violence against the clergy.

King Louis' decision to befriend these people has proven to be extremely wise. The Indians are eager to trade the fruits of their hunting, such as fine furs, for simple treasures like needles and mirrors. From the military perspective, Indian guides and scouts have shown our forces the best ways to travel in New France and the best spots for hunting or fishing. Several tribes have already sworn their loyalty to King Louis and have expressed desire to be a part of his great empire. France's future exploration of the New World will be helped with the continued support of the Indian tribes found there.

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