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IPP's ARE A BIG PROBLEM
INDIAN BARBARITY, BENAZIR ASSETS, SANCTIONS, CJ AGE
TALIBAN-NORTHERN ALLIANCE TALKS
BLOODYING OPPONENTS, NEPOTISM AND BHARATNAWAZ MEDALS
CORRUPTION IN THE CORRIDORS OF POWER, HORSETRADING, IPP's, SIND, VICTIMISATION ETC.
PAKISTAN JOINS BALLISTIC MISSILE CLUB
If what appears in the press is a reflection of the prime ministers mind than Nawaz Sharif seems to have a deep personal resentment for Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari. Just days after getting the Punjab High Courts Ehtesab Benches to arbitrarily (without even hearing the defendants)freeze all their assets he now suggests another round of witch hunting by accusing them of treason in the IPP affair. probably more cases for the PPP duo.Obviously the PPP govt had nowhere else to acquire electricity from and there was no other way but to allow independent producers as the donors were insisting on privatization AND LOAD SHEDDING WAS GETTING OUT OF HAND. It is now apparent that the IPP's are more expensive than the white elephant ie the state electricity giant WAPDA. Obviously serious mistakes have been made in the IPP/HUBCO/KAPCO agreements.HUBCO is apparently providing electricity at around 11 cents.The agreements with the other IPP's at 6-7 cents are also way above production costs. The banks seem tobe the main culprits who have provided finances and other guarantees at exorbitant rates with the PPP govt a close second. Benazir Advisor Shahid Hasan Khan seems to be the main culprit who was supposed tobe the guru behind the plan.ABN-AMRO a foreign bank agrees that there is a serious problem but provides no proper solution. If WAPDA is to bear the responsibility than it will have to increase rates substantially. The ordinary person can already not afford electricity. The govt seems tobe leaning towards helping the IPP's rather than the consumer. Nawaz Sharif on the other hand seems to be only concerned with the political capital that he can make out of it rather than a solution. The only solution around is to end all power purchase agreements and negotiate new ones at real rates of around 2-4 cents. Both KAPCO and HUBCO made 100/70% profits while HUBCO costs are 3 times that of KAPCO. Even with rough figures it is apparent that Hubco rates should be around 6cents and KAPCO around 2cents.It is also apparent that quoting prices in dollars is wrong. The new agreements should therefore be in rupees. Also it seems there might be a case for separate agreements with different IPP's depending on their situation.Also a thorough analysis of HUBCO is necessary to find the reasons for their high expenditure.The new rates should also take account of the type of fuel used.
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Talks between the Taliban and the rival Northern Alliance are getting underway in Islamabad. The two sides seem closer to a solution which underlines the sudden US interest. The negotiations upto now have been brokered by the several UN mediators and the pakistani foreign office. According to press reports the problems between the two sides mainly revolve around future govt formation, amount of representation and the role of women in a future afghanistan. The Taliban support a strict islamic ethic on the pattern of the iranian govt whereas the Northern Alliance are for a more liberal but still conservative system. Afghanistan has a history of loose tribal government systems which frequently looses control of regions and tribes and than military methods are needed to regain control. The Taliban have a sunnite orientation while the Northern Alliance is dominated by shiite sympathisers thus the conflict. The present conflicts roots are in the soviet invasion which saw the rise of numerous local, tribal and regional militias. After forcing out the the soviets in 1989 the generally islamic groups fell out on a form of govt. Finally the infighting caused the rise of a student (Taliban) militia which quickly took over control of most of afghanistan barring the northern areas dominated generally by tajiks, uzbeks and shiites. Both sides are reportedly armed by outside interests which include pakistan, iran, china, ukraine and russia.
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It is now a foreone conclusion that the deals signed by the PPP govt with the IPP's have a lot of loopholes and problems. The govts efforts to get the IPP's to reduce prices which are more than three times Wapdas cost of generation are running into a syndicate type of opposition. The IPP's donot want to letgo of their lucrative deals and without a reduction in prices there will soon be no purchasers for an impending oversupply. The GOP will than have to foot the bill for idle power plants which it will try to foist on already angry consumers. It seems that the GOP gave the same high rates to IPP's who were going to be provided with subsidized local gas. The govt in amove to reduce opposition to lower prices has brought in new legislation which can be used to cancel contracts if there is evidence of kickbacks and corruption. Upto now the govt was only going after the people who received kickbacks leaving the sponsors and providers of kickbacks to roam free. There are some indicators that people in the PPB( private power board) and govt helped out specific parties.The govt now seems to be trying to harass a few IPP owners which include Southern Electric, Uch Power and Hubco. Earlier the govt was on the other side trying toget Kohinoor Electric an earlier certification despite opposition from Wapda. The only other option for the govt is to let IPP's export power to India on their own or via Wapda. However India is not expected to offer a reasonable rate which would be profitable. Some people suggest that India has offered a rate of 7cents which is about the average rate of IPP sale to Wapda. With the cost of infrastructure it would not be too feasible unless there is a definite oversupply over a specific period of time. Earlier the Punjab High Court asked the govt to honour its agreement on setting up a barge power plant. The person involved in that case was Senator Gulzar who is very close to the PPP heirarchy. In that case political victimisation was probably the guiding factor. There seem tobe some indications that the harassment of some IPP owners might be a belated attempt by PMLn industrialists to get a share of the power production pie.
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PPP leaders and legislators were bloodied and hurt after Nawaz Sharifs goons ie the Islamabad police beat them up .Several PPP demonstrators were arrested and cases initiated against them. They had gathered outside parliament to demonstrate against govt victimisation. One clearly remembers the fuss created by the PMLn when they were beaten up by a few PPP jiyalas.Afew days later the govt backed down and apologized and released those arrested. The seargent at arms of the national assembly was also fired as a scapegoat. However there are clear indications that the bloodying and beating up was done on the instructions of PMLn leaders. PMLn leaders harbour a lot of resentment against the PPP.
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In a new revelation which seems to have been previously censored, todays Frontier Post states that the Supreme Court has directed the Punjab High Court to decide within 14 days its stay of the forcible purchase of 65 acres of land by the Punjab Govt for the father of the prime minister. One is literally shocked to learn that the Punjab Govt is purchasing land for a private trust run by the chief ministers father. Earlier doubts were expressed by PMLn supporters as to how the prime minister arranged to acquire 1000 acres for the trusts hospital. Obviously by hook and crook. Shades of Asif Zardari inhabit the activities of most politicians.
The prime minister and his protégé the NWFP chief minister have bought a few more horses they say. The party that based itself on fighting horsetrading has bought the PMLj which has two mpas in NWFP and a senator elected on a PPP ticket. The PMLj was Benazir's part of the PML which she had used to win several seats in PML strongholds in the 1993 elections. Earlier the PMLn Sind group had bought or acquired three dissident PPP mpa's. The PMLj was willing to join the Mehtab coalition earlier but the speaker Hidayatullah Chamkani could not be ousted to accommodate a Saifullah scion. The Saifullahs have old ties to the PPP and the earlier PML(c). They were not targeted by the PMLn despite having been partners in the previous PPP regime.
The IPP crisis lingers on. Apparently the PMLn wants to place a ban on thermal projects so that the govt can focus on tiny hydel and the controversial kalabagh dam. The PPP had allowed IPPs to set up power plants to fulfill needs till 2003. However the tariffs which looked alright at lesser dollar rates are now looking ominous with Wapda refusing to honour obligations signed by the GOP. Wapda feels that if it has to buy 3000MW of power at present rates it will go bankrupt . Most of Wapda's earnings will goto pay IPP's leaving it nothing for development, improvement and building new power stations. At present IPP power is mostly needed in karachi and there seems tobe a surplus in the winter months which will probably even out in the summer. The govt has asked the IPP's to reduce rates substantially, restructure power purchase payments, restructure foreign loans or spread the completion of the IPP's. The IPP's seem tobe baulking at helping out because of links to the World Bank and the US govt. and the extremely high rates of earnings/profits ( around 100%). In the USA profits of 6-10% are considered satisfactory.
While Benazir has been allowed to travel abroad two of her lawyers one of whom was involved in earlier govts and some scams have been disallowed from leaving despite assurances that such victimisation would stop.
There might be some developments on the Sind front in the near future as the GOP thinks that indian controlled terrorism might have a nerve center in Sind. There are problems in Karachi and the GOP might be thinking of bringing back Altaf Hussein. Indian terrorism in Punjab seems tobe seperately controlled with groups based in Sialkot, Gujranwala , Faisalabad and Sorgodha. Both the Sind and Punjab borders are very porous and there have been reports of people even going for joyrides on the indian sides of the border.
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In a much heralded move the pakistan army tested a 1500km ballistic missile capable of carrying anytype of warhead.The missile according to jang reports was fired from Jhelum and landed at its target in the Balochistan desert. The missile only travelled 1100 km and on firing went up into the atmosphere upto 350 km. It is however said that the total length of the missile arc is 1500km. There was however no official confirmation of the site. There is also no independent confirmation of whether the missile test was succesful or not apart from the fact that the USA expressed its annoyance. The missile named hataf-5 seems tobe a lookalike of the earlier short range missiles although slightly larger and still not looking like a missile. Missiles all over the world are snub nosed while the pakistani missile is pointed. It has no defined parts such as the fuel section or warhead and has just one body with a few fins. It shows that the pakistanis donot seem to have any specialist missile designing/manufacturing capability and donot know how to even make a proper body. There are reports in the press that the missile might have housed a chinese made M-11/14. However such speculation was denied by the govt calling it entirely indigenous and meant to test a capability. The indians who have already targeted missiles at all major pakistani cities found it hard to believe as the pakistanis are known to lack the necessary expertise or technology. The test coincided with the release of an american DEA agent which raises speculation that the americans might have provided the technology in exchange.Following the indian example pakistan is now expected to go for a rocket capable of placing a sattelite in orbit.
According to the News it could either be a laser guided or mechanically guided 3 stage missile weighing 16 tons and having a payload of 700kg. Its fuel alone weighed 14 tons. It took 9.58minutes to reach its target. The missile can be fired from a mobile platform and its range covers most enemy targets especially in India. The missile has been developed after the USA and the world turned a blind eye towards indias development of various types of missiles and nuclear weapons. India is said to have a substantial nuclear arsenal. Pakistan was forced to abandon its missile development program several years ago which has placed pakistan defence at a disadvantage vis a vis India. This has to be seen in the light of pakistans main weapon suppliers refusal to replenish/update pakistans defence arsenal. India which was somehow expected to reciprocate positively by the pakistani defence establishment however kept on developing one missile after another which has finally caused a rethink in pakistani govt and defence circles.
Over the last two decades Pakistan developed and tested various missiles namely Hatf-1(50 miles), Hatf-2(185 miles) and Hatf-3(375 miles). Pakistans first missile was tested in 1989. Soon after the americans forced pakistan to abandon its missile development program.
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