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A NEW MOHAJIR COAS---08 October 1998

• Over a 100 vehicles were torched in karachi and twelve killed in MQM orchestrated violence.
• In one of the most surprising developments the COAS Jehangir Keramat resigned after differences with the prime minister emerged over his scathing criticism of Nawaz Sharifs rule. Jehangir a generally modest person and well liked is the first army chief to resign . Nawaz Sharif has developed differences with all the army chiefs that he has worked with.General(retd) Aslam Baig suggests that Jehangir had decided to enforce martial law but the controversy raised by his NSC suggestion caused him to resign
• The govt moving quickly has appointed Corp Commander Mangla Gen Pervez Musharraf as the next army chief. The appointment came as a surprise as it superceded two other competent generals Ali Kuli Khan and Khalid Nawaz. Ali Kuli seemed to be the logical choice for the next COAS but political considerations seem to have overridden seniority. Possibility of a few generals resigning at the turn of events exists which might further fuel anti nawaz feelings.It also seems that Pervez Musharraf has been appointed because of his mohajir background and the reccomendations of Altaf Hussein. The PMLn had been mulling the appointment of the new COAS for the last several months. Pervez Musharraf does not seem to have too distinguished a military background and the only important positions that he has held are that of Director Military Operations and Corp Commander Mangla . He is also from the artillery branch of the army whereas most army chiefs have been from the armoured or infantry branches. That probably reflects the nature of conflicts that the pakistani army is currently facing in kashmir and Siachen.
• THE position of CJCOSC has also fallen vacant for which Ali Kuli, Fasih Bokhari and Pervez Mehdi are being considered. That could result in a possible new airforce or navy chief as well.
• The mohajir columnist Kamran Khan has welcomed the appointment. The MQM in general regards the army as responsible for its problems.,
• The pakistan army which is punjabi and pukhtun dominated might not like the appointment suggest some commentators. A period of possible conflict between army factions could emerge resulting in the oft discussed possibility of martial law. Jehangir Keramat has pointed to dissensions and apprehensions aurfacing in younger officers in general who have always found it difficult to deal with the disparities between disciplined army life and the undisciplined nature of pakistans politics and rich elite.

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MQM ON THE LOOSE AGAIN---07 October 1998

• In what has been the usual method of MQM blackmail the mohajirs went on the ranmpage killing several people and burning dozens of cars in apparent retaliation for the killing of MQM activists in karachi. Whenever the MQM does not agree with the govt they kill a few of their activists and than organize riots. That confirms a longheld view that the MQM is one of about three terrorist oriented political groups in pakistan
• Nawaz Sharif apparently frightened by the army chiefs open interference in politics has started to discuss the national security council idea. Apparently the generals are concerned at Nawaz Sharifs personal decision making without consulting people, colleagues, party or cabinet. Most of Nawaz Sharifs recent decisions were made either individually or with the consultation of one or two bearocrats/advisors.The NSC idea was implemented by the previous caretaker govt but the PMLn did not renew the ordinance. The reasoning behind the NSC idea is that at least a few relevant people will discuss important issues before they are implemented or floated for the public. The other aspect is that since the army chief will be on the NSC he will not be in the dark on future political moves. However there is also a possibility that Nawaz might replace Jehangir Keramat who still seems tobe partially guided by the groups that toppled Benazir. There are also some who regard Jehangir Keramat to have outlived his utility and the need for a vibrant relatively new personage to head the army and internal security systems is being felt. A tough general from NWFP could be considered for the top army position so as to have someone from the other provinces amongst the top decision makers.Under Jehangir Keramat the countries defence and foreign policy have seemed tobe increasingly under the indians thumb.Jehangirs mildness has in fact encouraged indian aggressiveness. The military has also repeatedly failed to counter indian propaganda. The nawaz - jehangir govt has appointed relatively mild punjabis to most top level positions which has caused disatisfaction in nwfp and balochistan.

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SUGGESTS A CIVILIAN MILITARY RULE---06 October 1998

• In what can be seen as a stinging denunciation of Nawaz Sharifs style of govt the normally docile army chief has advocated a national security council to rule the country backed by a panel of advisors with ministries and the military high command as its other tiers. The COAS also critisized the govts economy handling, stressed the need to solve the grievances of smaller provinces and establish the rule of law and good governance. In fact he states that the armed forces cannot afford the destabilizing effects of polarisation, vendettas, and insecurity driven expedient policies. He also stressed the need to institutionalize decision making.He also showed concern for the deteriorating internal situation vis a vis karachi, sectarianism and regionalism. However he showed that he has a punjabi sense of the countries politics by mentioning the grievances of smaller provinces. Nowhere did he mention a role for the people, their elected representatives or democracy. What he seems to advocate is rule by the armed forces with the cooperation of the IMF and WB. In fact a military dictatorship seems tobe jehangir keramats prescription. The nawaz sharif govt seems stunned by the generals open criticism.Nawaz Sharif in a meeting with the president is supposed to have discussed the removal of Jehangir Keramat. Upto now Nawaz has avoided the appointment of a new COAS despite moving Jehangir to the position of CJCOSC. The govt has been apparently concerned at the willingness of some Lt.generals to consider the imposition of martial law when promoted to the position of COAS
• The assistant commisioner gujranwala, his daughter and gunmen were killed when terrorists ambushed the richshaw they were travelling in. The motive seems tobe sectarian, retaliatory or terrorist.
• Eight people were killed in karachi including three MQM activists
• The mayfair flats mentioned in the Observer story are infact owned by Nawaz Sharif say press reports. The only problem is that they are not mentioned in his statement of known assets and therefore fall in the gambit of alleged corruption activities according to the zardari laws enunciated by the present govt.
• Shahid Hussein secretary ministry of water and power has been named to head the countries water and power giant Wapda. Wapda despite monthly increases in rates is said tobe in dire financil straits
• The london based MQM has asked Nawaz Sharif to step down thus acknowledging its inabilty to control the karachi situation. The mqm is nawaz sharifs coalition partner.
• The senate in one of its few people interest actions has asked for the reduction of electricity rates. Last year approximately 900 units cost Rs3000. Now around 700 units cost Rs 3000. Wapda has a creeping list of surcharges which it can increase without anyones approval .

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NOTHING IMPORTANT---05 October 1998

• Pakistan and India have expelled the others visa officers. This exercise is carried out routinely every year.
• The anti terrorist courts in karachi have handed down death sentences to two SSP activists for murdering two iranian engineers.It has also been revealed that the iranians pulled out 60 staffers from pakistan in anticipation of the decision and its possible consequences.The iranians are said tobe concerned about their security in pakistan. It would be pertinent to note that the Nawaz govt is pro shiite or pro TNFJ and anti SSP.99% of the murders in karachi have never been solved which shows the administrations efficiency and political leanings.
• Four of the ten NWFP dissident mpas are to be offered cabinet positions as a means of pacification suggest newspaper reports
• Wapda has apparently decided according to a press report to resort to load shedding as its major oil supplier has threatened to cutoff supplies as Wapda is defaulting on payments of Rs40 billion.

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HARASSMENT,IPP's---03 October 1998

• Wapda chairman has resigned over differences in policy with Minister of Water and Power Gohar Ayub
• Six people were killed in karachi
• The govt is stopping its failed attempt to reduce the expensive rates at which IPP's provide power to Wapda
• Iranians increasingly showing aggressive designs in military exercises on afghan border.Invasion of afghanistan might be days away
• Wali Khan refuses to meet nawaz Sharif to discuss 15th amendment
• Govt starts campaign of harassing Rehman Maliks family by raiding relatives medical hospital
• Govt arrests Asif Zardaris lawyer
• Nwfp dissident mpas succeed in meeting Nawaz but he refuses to remove mehtab and asks them to mainatain prty discipline.
• Army chief refuses to talk to journalists in future. Says they twist his comments
• Economic sitution is worsening as the govt is waiting for donors and international agencies to soften terms before reaching deals on financial assistance

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15th AMENDMENT, OPERATION MQM,DISQUALIFICATION ETC---02 October 1998

Chaudhry Nisar in explanation to the MQM says that the army overstepped its orders in the 1992 Sind Operation. The operation which was very successful against dacoits in interior sind was a failure in karachi as the administration allowed Altaf to slipout of the country from where he continued his terrorism by phone. That failure has cost the country dearly as karachi has remained destabilised with assasins running haywire.Nisar asserts that the operation was directed mainly at the PPP and only a few MQM walas were on the list s handed over to the army.However the army showed exemplary control and did not allow the operation to become too politically motivated. The MQM has since become london based with opposition growing in karachi and a splinter group the MQMh emerging in some areas to challenge the MQM in literally a war of murders with each side taking turns at assasinating someone from the opposing side
• The observer story has literally shaken the PMLn and literally all its leaders are trying to reduce its impact.There was pandemonium in the Senate as Wasim Sajjad refused to allow the senators from discussing the issue. The govt also started retaliatory disciplinary proceedings against the FIA official Rehman Malik who is already under suspension
• The govt is close to getting the support of the MQM on the 15th amendment however Akber Bugtis JWP has reportedly refused to cooperate. If the govt fails to get the necessary support in the senate it is expected to rubber stamp the 15th amendment thru a joint sitting of parliament
• In a surprise move Iran has recalled sixty diplomatic staff temporarily. Newspaper reports cite tension over the afghanistan issue as the cause. Speculation is rife that the real cause maybe irans apprehensions at what might happen toits diplomatic staff in case of an iranian invasion . Other causes maybe involvement in pakistans sectarian strife
• The election commission has disqualified ANP mpa Gian Singh for opposing party discipline.
• One of pakistans political newsmagazines NEWSLINE has accused the govt of launching a campaign of terror and intimidation against its staff
• A LHC judge Faqir Mohd khokhar has declined to sit on a bench to listen to a case against Benazir Bhutto
• There is again speculation that the rupee might be devalued further. However in order to avoid speculative pressures the govt will opt to use its multi tier system of devaluation rather than a straight forward devaluation
• A KMC official was gunned down in karachi. This was the fifth KMC official to be killed in a month in the ongoing MQM-MQMh war.

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THE OBSERVER STORY RIVALS THE SURREY MANSION SAGA---30th Sept 1998

• Reheman Maliks petition/report to the president has surely got the prime ministers goat. While Benazir thruout kept her distance from the surrey mansion story nawaz and his henchmen have fallen straight into the cauldron. Rafik Tarrar could not maintain even the slightest hints bipartisanship and immediately rejected the report without even a proper investigation... On assumption of power Nawaz immediately removed Rehman Malik and initiated corruption cases against him. Nawaz knows Rehman Malik well as he was assigned to investigate the PMLn leaders crooked personal economics by the previous govt. However in London nawaz asked who is this man , do u know him. What utter innocence. In parliament nawaz cronies blew up repeatedly at the mere mention of the Observer story and refused to even set up an investigation panel.And that journalistic slave Mushahid questioned the ethics of the Observer although not the story. While others such as Khalid Anwer suggested that the report was based on forged documents even though no documents were attached. The jury which is usually out for a long while on such things has already given its verdict. Guilty as charged. Rehman Malik who is in hiding in london says he has complete proofs. However the PMLn insiders suggest that all Nawaz family documents have been moved to the safest places in europe and without access to them Rehman Malik cannot prove anything.
• The army chief who has benefited personally from the nawaz govt has started to look like a complete stooge or chela. Since the army chief has been running the countries defence and foreign affairs he obviously cannot oppose the prime minister who might kick him out in january 1999 or keep him on for another three years. However jehangir keramat says with a malicious glint and obedient face that he has never threatened martial law??
• There are hints that some hanges might be in the offing in the NWFP. The nwfp chief minister has spent several days in islamabad. It is surmised that the governor has been advised to suspend the provincial assembly if an opposition-PMLn dissident group tries to form a govt or tries to remove Mehtab. Some dissidents are reportedly in contact with the ANP to topple mehtab. In other scenarios the governor maybe asked to act as mediator/referee between mehtab and the PMLn dissidents. Other possibilities the chance that some dissident groupwalas could be removed from assembly membership in case of total disobedience. The governor could also have been asked to find a suitable replacement for Mehtab in case the PMLn decides to bend towards the dissidents

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