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Jurus radikal oleh Malaysia: Apakah berhasil?
Komentar dan aneka pandangan berkenaan dengan kecenderungan mengadakan pembatasan lalu lintas moneter.Ada apa Hedge Fund LTCM ? ..(Updated 4 Oct 1998)
Intervensi di Pasar Bebas
Riwayat Bantuan IMF
Kearah Regulasi Kapital Global
Measures to Regain Monetary Independence [1 Sep 1998]
Press Release Bank Negara Malaysia.
Pengendalian devisa dimaksudkan sebagai upaya membebaskan diri dari keterikatan moneter dan mengisolir perekonomian Malaysia dari prospek kemunduran yang berlanjut dalam lingkungan ekonomi dan keuangan dunia. Pengalaman menunjukkan bahwa usaha pemisahan dari perkembangan eksternal akan memberi posisi yang lebih baik dalam menghadapi perubahan-perubahan global yang merugikan. Pertimbangannya adalah:
Tindakan pembatasan transaksi devisa akan dihapuskan setelah tercapainya normalisasi lingkungan keuangan global.
- Membatasi efek imbasan perkembangan eksternal terhadap perekonomian Malaysia.
- Mempertahankan keberhasilan yang telah tercapai dalam kebijakan untuk menstabilkan perekonomian domestik.
- Mempertahankan stabilitas harga-harga domestik dan nilai tukar Ringgit serta menciptakan lingkungan yang kondusif bagi kepercayaan investor dan konsumen untuk menyehatkan kembali perekonomian.
Peraturan pembatasan devisa yang diberlakukan oleh Malaysia antara lain meliputi :
- Pembatasan penggunaan dana dari rekening valas di dalam negeri, hanya diperbolehkan untuk transaksi tertentu.
- Dana RM yang berada di luar negeri harus kembali ke dalam negeri dalam waktu 1 bulan.
- Pengiriman RM ke luar negeri dibatasi, terkecuali dalam transaksi ekspor/impor.
- Investasi di luar negeri dilarang atau memerlukan persetujuan pemerintah.
- Pembayaran ekspor harus diterima dalam valuta asing.
- Dilarang memberikan kredit kepada non-residen, dan tidak diijinkan pemberian kredit dalam RM bagi residen dari non-residen.
- Transaksi sekuritas dalam RM harus melalui lembaga depositori pemerintah.
- Hasil transaksi atau penjualan saham dalam RM harus ditahan selama 1 tahun sebelum dapat diambil.
- Pembatasan RM yang boleh dibawa ke luar negeri oleh wisatawan.
- Nilai tukar RM ditetapkan fixed pada RM3.80 per US$1.00
Peraturan lalu lintas devisa dan pengumuman resmi ada di Publikasi Bank Negara Malaysia.
Malaysia Pulls Ringgit Out of the Market [Financial Times, 2 Sep 1998]
by Sheila McNulty.
Economics Made Easy [Asiaweek, 18 Sep 1998]
Capital controls, interventions and what they mean to free markets
by Tim Healy.
".....laissez-faire Hong Kong has intervened in its stock market. And after a decade of growth built with the help of foreign investment, Malaysia has announced capital controls. What's going on?..."
"... What can the rich countries do?......"
"....Until the day a single global currency takes root (unlikely anytime soon, mostly for nationalistic reasons) currency markets remain the best early-warning systems....."Cold War Over Hot Money [Asiaweek, 18 Sep 1998]
Malaysia's Mahathir wants to rein in global speculators.
So do other leaders. Will the free market become a casualty in the crossfire?
by Ricardo Saludo.
".....But now more and more leaders and officials feel obliged to do more than merely leveling the field for market players...."
"....In the face of a plummeting rupiah, the Indonesian despot gave no thought to currency controls and imposed a 60% interest rate instead, crushing banks and companies en masse and throwing millions out of work..."
"... Hence, by far the gravest threat to freedom today, both political and economic, is not recalcitrant strongmen or unruly speculators and demonstrators - but mass hardship......"No Second Thought [Asiaweek, 25 Sep 1998]
A confident Malaysia reinforces its rebel stance
by Jonathan Sprague and Assif Shameen
"......Malaysia's defenders point out, the textbook prescriptions of higher interest rates and lower spending pushed by the International Monetary Fund - and championed in Malaysia by ousted deputy premier Anwar - have not yet brought recovery anywhere in the region...."
"....to wall Malaysia off from international capital surges so that they could prime the economic pump without a financial market backlash....."
"...So will Malaysia's departure from economic orthodoxy work? The key, analysts say, is if it can overhaul its banks, which are straining under a rising mountain of bad loans, while using capital and currency controls as a short-term shield...."Asian Economic Crisis: The Long View [14 Sep 1998]
Speech by Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
".... Malaysia has set out to prove to the world that it will succeed in restoring its economy on its own, and in its own way...."
"....In Singapore, we have taken a number of measures to cushion the impact of the crisis on the economy and to enhance our productive capacity and prepare for the eventual recovery in the region. Firstly, we are managing our exchange rate more flexibly, consistent with economic fundamentals, in order to maintain confidence in the Singapore dollar while maintaining our external competitiveness. Secondly, the government has also used fiscal measures to reduce business costs and enhance productive capacity. It implemented one package of cost cutting and pump-priming measures in June. .....Thirdly, Singapore is carrying out economic restructuring and strategic planning, to enhance our attractiveness as a regional and international business hub...."World Capital Flows [15 Sep 1998]
Let's Fix the System, Not Abandon It
Remarks by Fed Reserve Governor Edward M. Gramlich
".....Without world capital flows, the general level of development in the world would be far less...."
".....Why are countries turning away from open capital markets? It turns out that there is some fine print that goes with the neoclassical model, and the world economy has had some trouble with the fine print....."
".....While exchange rate changes have this potentially stabilizing effect, they can also be destabilizing. When exchange rates are allowed to fluctuate, they are set in currency markets according to the demands and supplies of forward-looking traders, and they can be very volatile, often overshooting long term values......"
"..... Financial institutions engage in what is known as maturity transformation. .....As with capital flows, there are risks. If the banks' loans go bad, the institution is in trouble and may not be able to redeem deposits......"
".....The basic need here is for better bank supervision. Supervision must be improved to insure that proper risk management techniques are put in place and followed....."
".....Countries have often gotten into trouble when they have done too much maturity transformation - that is, borrowed from abroad at short maturities to finance long term investment. Steps could be taken to limit such borrowing, either nationally or through bank supervision. Some economists have used this idea to propose taxes on short term borrowing, ....."
".....Transparency alone cannot do the job of good bank regulation, but it is hard to imagine a solution to the international lending problems of the day without more transparent accounting...."
".....As a general rule, the exchange rate flexibility issue is a hard one and it is hard to make broad recommendations. Sometimes a country's cost structure is clearly out of line, or its inflation rate is clearly too high, and exchange rate flexibility seems to be the least costly way to bring prices and wages back into line. But exchange rate flexibility will cause capital losses and will raise the cost and risk of future capital transactions. That does not mean that the exchange rate must be preserved at all costs, but it does mean that capital flows themselves put some constraints on the normal international adjustment mechanisms....."Flows and Blows [Financial Times, 3 Mar 1998]
by Martin Wolf
Martin Wolf, kolumnis Financial Times sudah lama mempertanyakan kebebasan aliran modal, dan memberikan contoh Indonesia sebagai negara yang nasibnya paling buruk... Apakah sepadan penderitaan yang harus ditanggung rakyat Indonesia akibat dosa-dosa 'crony capitalism' dan 'moral hazard'?
"....Can one still justify freedom of capital flows? How, in particular, can one persuade leaders of emerging economies that the "reward" for liberalising capital will not be as ghastly as, say, Indonesia's? These questions must be addressed while memories of east Asia's crisis are fresh...."
"....Indonesia: its current account deficit was less than 4 per cent of GDP throughout the 1990s; its budget was in balance; inflation was below 10 per cent; at the end of 1996 the real exchange rate (as estimated by J.P. Morgan) was just 4 per cent higher than at the end of 1994; and the ratio to GDP of domestic bank credit to the private sector had risen merely from 50 per cent in 1990 to 55 per cent in 1996. True, the banking system had mountains of bad debt, but foreign lending to Indonesian companies had largely bypassed it. Is anyone prepared to assert that this is a country whose exchange rate one might expect to depreciate by about 75 per cent? Some exchange-rate adjustment was certainly necessary; what happened beggars belief...."UN lends support to Malaysia controls [The Australian, 21 Sep 98]
by Florence Chong
".....Malaysia is justified in imposing controls on foreign exchange in today's "extreme" conditions, according to Rubens Ricupero, secretary general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development...."Don't Spoil It [The STAR, 27 September 1998]
Economy is 'recovering but foreigners may frustrate our efforts'
by Shamsul Akmar
"....Dr Mahathir also pointed out how those who had criticised Malaysia for blaming hedge fund managers for the economic downturn of Malaysia and other countries, were now changing their tune....."
"....Dr Mahathir said the article pointed out how the Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) fund was suffering from huge losses in currency trading....."
".....'If LTCM collapses, it will have a bad effect on American banks which provided big loans to LTCM. It means banks there may even go bankrupt. But I believe the US Government will bail out these banks,' he said......"
"....Dr Mahathir said they now realised the evil of currency trading and they were now talking about the need to have regulations on such trading...."
Mengenai hedge fund LTCM yang hampir runtuh, dan telah dibail-out oleh bank-bank lainnya atas dukungan Fed Reserve New York: (Updated 4 Oct 1998)
New bandits of finance [2 Oct 1998]
Kolom 'Perspective' terbitan Straits Times Singapore menulis secara tajam kecaman-kecaman terhadap bisnis transaksi keuangan yang spekulatif oleh para hedge funds:
"..... As has been proved in Asia, these "financial bandits", as a psychiatrist calls them, have managed to cause havoc in developing countries, causing poverty and untold misery. All so that a large new class of wealthy Americans and Europeans will get even richer......"Staggering losses at Everest hedge fund [2 Oct 1998]
Selain LTCM, hedge fund bernama Everest Capital juga dilaporkan mengalami kerugian sangat besar, dalam transaksi emerging markets, Rusia dan Amerika Latin....Greenspan defends hedge-fund bail-out [2 Oct 1998]
Swiss victims of hedge fund collapse [2 Oct 1998]
LTCM bail-out prompts rule review [1 Oct 1998]
Wall Street firms defend LTCM rescue [26 Sep 1998]
LTCM: Bailed-out fund plans to attract new investments [25 Sep 1998]
Fear more than friends behind rescue [28 Sep 1998]
Rubin says US Agency will conduct a study on hedge funds [27 Sep 1998]
Hedge Fund Gets Help [23 Sep 1998]
LTCM had built up exposure of $200bn [26 Sep 1998]
Markets Rattled After Fund Rescue [26 Sep 1998]
Meriwether: Emperor Stripped Bare [25 Sep 1998]
What is Hedging anyway? [25 Sep 1998]
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Page created 26 September 1998. Last updated Sunday 4 October 1998, 7:28 AM.
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