Page created 4 October 1998. Last updated Sunday 18 October 1998, 6:47 PM.
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Stabilitas mata uang sebagai sasaran regulasi kapital global.
Mempertanyakan hasil kerja IMF: Menolong atau membuat panik? Apakah stabilitas dapat tercapai?
Siapakah yang mengacaukan stabilitas?
Ancaman stabilitas juga bagi negara-negara maju, bagaimana mereka bertindak?
Lihat juga:
Riwayat Bantuan IMF
Hedge Fund LTCM
Kebijakan Pengendalian Devisa
Intervensi di Pasar Bebas
A NEW COURSE [Asiaweek, 23 October 1998]
The Crisis is fast expanding the state's power in the economy and recasting Asian capitalism
By Ricardo Saludo'TRACK THE HEDGE FUNDS' [Asiaweek, 23 October 1998]
Hong Kong's finance czar takes on the hot moneyComing Apart: You say you want a revolution? [Newsweek, 12 October 1998]
As economies crumble, the comfortable old certainties are under fire. Unregulated markets are no longer seen as the only possible path to utopia.
By Michael ElliottAsia's Economy: The crisis nations no longer fight the IMF, and are beginning to dismantle the old system of crony capitalism [Newsweek, 12 October 1998]
By Tony Emerson
Change Nobody Understands [Washington Post, 14 October 1998]
By Robert J. SamuelsonBehind The Asian Crisis [Asiaweek: 16 October 1998]
Japan must help the region resist American control.
Ishihara Shintaro is best known for his book, A Japan That Can Say No. Excerpts from his new critique of the global economy
".....In retrospect, we can see how [East Asian] nations were enticed into America's con game. The first step was to pour in huge quantities of intentionally short-term capital from America and Europe. Since this is perfect funding for a developing nation with a will to succeed, everyone jumped at the opportunity. Such funding is most effective when invested in production, but local businesses grew intoxicated as their economies took off, and were drawn into speculations that created bubbles in real estate and other areas....."
".....In the next step, [hedge-fund managers] cried "Danger!" and triggered a panic by arbitrarily withdrawing short-term capital. At a single stroke, the Japanese banks which had managed to penetrate local markets were saddled with huge portfolios of bad debt. The severe downgrading credit-rating agencies gave to Japanese financial institutions and local manufacturers only heightened the sense of crisis....."
".....[When the various] governments were in paralysis, the IMF came in and, like an army of occupation, placed whole countries under its jurisdiction. The IMF will never deviate from the prescription laid down by the contingencies of U.S. self-protection, which commands fiscal austerity and control of inflation. But this isn't a remedy that works for every patient. Indiscriminate application ignores the dynamics of economic reality. Each country has a different political landscape, a society with special features. To do as the IMF does, ignores this diversity...."
"....This is a battle of minds and money. Japan has a historical responsibility toward the East Asian countries which, as America's prey, are being slaughtered en masse. It needs a new strategy. We should challenge Asia with an Asian standard that exists within a fair and free framework...."Constraining Capital, Liberating Politics [The American Prospect, Sep-Oct 1998]
by Robert Kuttner
"......For although global capital flows are more or less free and currency values are more or less set by market forces, governments and central bankers do recognize, if only through periodic ad hoc interventions, that the stakes are simply too high to let speculative capital and currency swings determine the fate of the real economy....."
".....But while Western governments are willing to engage in ad hoc interventions to contain crises, they are uneasy about returning to a more regulated regime for private capital flows and exchange rates. However, re-regulation of capital flows is precisely what is needed if left-of-center governments are to reclaim the capacity to pursue policies of high growth and social justice....."
"......casual observers of the mid-century economy fail to appreciate the importance of the Bretton Woods system. Bretton Woods fixed exchange rates. But by committing central banks to collectively support the fixed rates, it also precluded speculative currency trades or capital movements. The latter was its more important achievement. Regulation of global capital thus created shelter in which it was possible for national governments to build high-employment, high-growth welfare states, free from the downward competitive pressure of global money markets....."
The IMF and the Asian Flu [The American Prospect, Mar-Apr 1998]
by Jeffrey Sachs.
"......much more dangerous, IMF power also flows from the institution's carefully constructed image of infallibility. The IMF gets its way in the developing world because to disagree publicly with the IMF is viewed in the international community as rejecting financial rectitude itself...."
".....In dozens of cases each year in which developing-country governments manifestly do not agree with IMF prescriptions, they are terrified to murmur any opposition. To do so immediately brands the government as "lacking seriousness" in economic management......"
".... The G-7 and the IMF itself should give these new democracies the space to act. The IMF's advice might prove useful—even welcome—if it becomes part of a true collaboration between rich and poor nations in search of common global goals....."
What Japan Teaches Us Now [The American Prospect, Sep-Oct 1998]
by Richard Katz
Tidak lepas dari pengaruh krisis ekonomi di Asia, Jepang menjadi pelajaran tersendiri. Apakah memilih proteksionisme atau ekspansi perdagangan? Jepang diharapkan akan berperan lebih besar.Brown pushes for IMF reform [BBC News: 2 Oct 1998]
".....While Japan's current problems have been worsened by East Asia's general economic crisis, their roots lie in the country's long-standing policy of protecting its domestic markets. Exactly why protectionism should have had these delayed effects is not widely understood. The lessons of Japan's current predicament, moreover, are not only for protectionists....."
"....The catch is that sustaining this "share the pain" philosophy leads almost inevitably to systemic inefficiencies and bloat. If banks can't be allowed to fail, neither can many of their borrowers....."
"....Trade with either developing countries or advanced countries raises economic growth for all the countries involved....."
"....For reasons of political economy, if nothing else, the benefits of trade cannot be realized without a safety net that can make its rigors and dynamism socially tolerable. As recent reverses on fast track trading authority have demonstrated, the politics of expanding trade become unworkable unless trade expansion moves forward in tandem with robust safety net provisions. And thus the lessons of Japan are no less for the proponents of trade than they are for the champions of protectionism....."
Calls for a comprehensive reform of the world's financial system are getting louder, as finance ministers are gathering in Washington to prepare for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.As Asia sinks, can APEC swim? [The Age, 24 Sep 1998]
".....All discussions will be dominated by the Asian financial crisis, which already has infected other emerging markets like Russia and is now threatening the whole of Latin America. Minister will try to calm the markets and reassure investors and companies that all will be done to prevent a worldwide recession....."
"....Some economists and politicians have suggested that international capital flows should be better regulated. They hope that this could prevent future market collapses, caused when both domestic and foreign investors take fright and try to move large amounts of money out of a country...."
by Paul Keating
"....This economic crisis is already producing devastating social consequences. Tens of millions of Asians have been pushed back into poverty. Human suffering is growing daily. Every child who drops out of school, or misses out on a vaccination against a debilitating disease, will have a human lifetime's impact on the societies of the region. The crisis has also reignited ugly ethnic divisions in societies such as Indonesia's....."Knives out for IMF [BBC News: 29 Sep 1998]
"....The Asian crisis threatens to have a global impact. Deflation is a looming problem. Japan has just posted its worst economic growth figures since World WarII. Russia and Latin America face dangerous strains. Wim Duisenberg of the European Central Bank acknowledges that the international turmoil will have a ``dampening effect'' on European growth....."
"....The November meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum should be an ideal vehicle for coordinating action to address these problems. APEC represents all the key Asia Pacific economies....."
".....It is impossible to look back at the scarifying developments in Asia over the past 12 months without concluding that the policy responses of governments and international institutions have been seriously flawed. If the consequence of addressing the sort of capital account problems a number of regional countries experienced is to plunge the region, and possibly the world, into recession, then either our understanding of what is happening or our prescriptions for dealing with it are seriously flawed....."
"....The pressure for a major overhaul of the International Monetary Fund has been mounting in the lead-up to the organisation's annual meetings which start in Washington this week....."Curbing global turmoil: Can countries opt out of global markets? [BBC News: 2 Oct 1998]
"....Attaching harsh conditions to its financial bail-outs has meant the poorest people in crisis-hit countries like Indonesia have suffered...."
"....The IMF maintains the Asian contagion would have been far worse if it had not stepped in. But most world leaders agree some sort of reform of the IMF is now essential....."
"....It would also promote international trade by overseeing a system of fixed, but adjustable, exchange rates. Fixed rates ended in 1971, although controls on capital movements lasted until 1979 in the UK and until the 1980s in France and Italy. The IMF now monitors a 'globalised' world financial system with floating exchange rates....."
"....Some leaders have hinted they would like to see a return to a more managed currency zone. Gerhard Schroder, Germany's chancellor designate has backed plans to set target zones for the world's main currencies to help avoid a recession....."
"....The World Bank's chief economist, Joseph Stiglitz, has argued that international flows of short-term capital may expose developing countries 'to unacceptable risks without commensurate returns.'....."World Bank economist calls for more U.S. involvement in Asia [Post-Gazzette: 24 Sep 1998]
"....The argument is that financial liberalistion should be limited initially to long-term investments, with short-term bank lending restricted until developing countries have more sophisticated banking systems....."
".....Whatever the outcome of the debate, there is no doubt that the unexpected severity of the crisis has shaken the orthodoxy to its roots....."
".....The economic crisis in Asia did not arise and will not recede without assistance from the United States, according to the chief economist of the World Bank, Joseph Stiglitz......"Wriston: IMF off course, [CNNfn, 21 Sep 1998]
".....In Asia, Western currency traders are a popular target for blame. Stiglitz said this view, too, was overly simplistic....."
".....Instead, it was "the misguided policies of economic liberalization," encouraged by the United States, that drove many Asian countries to ruin....."
"....'We had a lack of understanding of what it takes to make a market economy work,' he said. Increased liberalization of markets and industries without a commensurate rise in oversight can create economic disaster, he said....."
Former Citicorp chief says agency should not bail out bankers' 'bum loans'
"....These crises can only be solved by the political entity in the country involved. Outsiders can pour money in, as we did in Russia, which has disappeared. Outsiders can give advice, which we've done in Japan fairly well...."CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION: What's The Best Stance? [IMF Economic Forum, 2 October 1998]
"....Outsiders can suggest ways in which to reform the system, but at the end of the day, the political process in Indonesia, in Thailand, in Korea, has to get its act together and say we have to get rid of the bum loans in the banks, whether you do it on the American model of the good bank-bad bank that we did with the S&L. Or do it another way is a local problem. But you cannot repair a bad political situation which caused this problem by pouring money in it...."
A Panel Discussion Moderated by J. (ONNO) de BEAUFORT WIJNHOLDS, IMF Executive Director with Panelists: BARRY EICHENGREEN, John L. Simpson Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California-Berkeley, JAGDISH BHAGWATI, Arthur Lehman Professor of Economics, Columbia University, RICHARD COOPER, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics, Harvard University, RICARDO HAUSMANN, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank, and MICHAEL MUSSA, Economic Counsellor and Director, IMF's Research Department.Private-sector Recapitalization of LTCM [1 Oct 1998]
Transkrip dari Diskusi Panel yang melibatkan tokoh-tokoh ekonom Amerika, membuka gambaran pendalaman bahwa liberalisasi kapital memerlukan sejumlah kesiagaan dan kehati-hatian yang tidak dapat diabaikan, mulai dari kebijakan makroekonomi, sistem keuangan domestik, perbankan, sampai kepada kestabilan politik, dan pentahapan dalam liberalisasi itu sendiri, harus disesuaikan dengan kondisi masing-masing negara.
Statement by William J. McDonough, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services US House of Representative.
Pernyataan resmi Fed Res New York mengenai penyelamatan hedge fund LTCM.
".....I will cover four points. First, I will provide some background on Long-Term Capital's financial problems. Second, I will explain our judgment that an abrupt and disorderly close-out of Long-Term Capital's positions would have posed unacceptable risks to the American economy. Third, I will explain the limited role we played in facilitating the private-sector resolution to this private-sector problem. Fourth, I will identify some of the issues that should concern us as we begin to understand the lessons of this experience....."Hedge Fund Rescue, and What to do With the Blow Out of the Bubble? [EIR Talks: 30 Sep 1998]
"....It has many of the characteristics of a "hedge fund" in that it borrows money to leverage its capital and is only available to wealthy investors...."
"....Perhaps their success went to their heads. Long-Term Capital took on larger and larger positions. They also leveraged their investments at higher levels, returning capital to their investors but not, apparently, reducing risks....."
"....The unusual widening of credit spreads also caused significant losses at Long-Term Capital. As markets around the world moved in the same direction at the same time, the diversification on which Long-Term had previously relied failed them utterly. Instead of offsetting positions, their losses were compounded....."
".... One important objective of the Federal Reserve is to assure financial stability. Particularly in times of stress, it is essential that the Federal Reserve continue to take the pulse of the market. One way to do that is through candid and open communication with key market participants. Everyone I spoke to that day volunteered concern about the serious effect the deteriorating situation of Long-Term could have on world markets....."
".....The team also came to understand the impact which Long-Term Capital's positions were already having on markets around the world and that the size of these positions was much greater than market participants imagined....."
".....Had Long-Term Capital been suddenly put into default, its counterparties would have immediately "closed-out" their positions. If counterparties would have been able to close-out their positions at existing market prices, losses, if any, would have been minimal. However, if many firms had rushed to close-out hundreds of billions of dollars in transactions simultaneously, they would have been unable to liquidate collateral or establish offsetting positions at the previously-existing prices. Markets would have moved sharply and losses would have been exaggerated. Several billion dollars of losses might have been experienced by some of Long-Term Capital's more than 75 counterparties....."
".....Two factors influenced our involvement. First, in the rush of Long-Term Capital's counterparties to close-out their positions, other market participants -- investors who had no dealings with Long-Term Capital -- would have been affected as well. Second, as losses spread to other market participants and Long-Term Capital's counterparties, this would lead to tremendous uncertainty about how far prices would move....."
".....This would have caused a vicious cycle: a loss of investor confidence, leading to a rush out of private credits, leading to a further widening of credit spreads, leading to further liquidations of positions, and so on....."
"......What the Long Term Capital Management affair represents is the disintegration of the financial system. The reason why the bankers had to move in and bail out Long Term Capital -- and they actually didn't bail it out, they {foreclosed} on it -- what they bailed out was the derivatives market, because Long Term had in excess of $1 trillion in derivatives....."Why a World-Wide Chain Reaction Set Financial Markets Into a Spin [Wall Street Journal, 22 Sep 1998]
"......The global derivatives market has been hit very hard with losses. The banks have suffered big losses on loans and other financial instruments to Russia, to Asia, growing now in Ibero-America, and also, domestically, in the United States, a lot of this hasn't been reported yet, but there's a meltdown underway globally ......"
".......you have to ask yourself, if there are $140 trillion in derivatives outstanding in the world today, what kind of risk they're managing? ..."
".....But, the real answer to what a derivative is, is to look at it in terms of a dog and fleas. During the 1980s, you had the creation of a huge financial bubble. This was the miracle, the Reagan-Bush economic miracle. And, you could look at that as fleas who set up a trading empire on a dog. And they're trading more and more -- they build up their trading empires. They start pumping more and more blood out of the dog to support their trading, and then at a certain point, the amount of blood that they're trading exceeds what they can pump from the dog, without killing the dog. The dog begins to get very sick. So being clever little critters, what they do, is they switch to trading in blood futures. And since there's no connection -- they break the connection between the blood available and the amount you can trade, then you can have a real explosion of trading, and that's what the derivatives market represents...."
".....Well, the danger is that the system as a whole will collapse, is one. And also, the very existence of this bubble depends upon looting the physical economy. So in a sense, you have to kill people to keep the bubble going....."
"...... It used to be that the IMF was one of the most feared institutions in the world, that when the IMF spoke, nations shuddered, they jumped. But the IMF has proven to be a complete failure. If you look at all of the bailouts that it's handled over the last year, through Asia and now Russia, everything they touch blows up in their face....."
"......Well, governments must, first of all, assert their sovereignity over the financial markets. The markets are not sovereign, the governments are. And nations must act in concert, as sovereign nations, to put this bubble into receivership. You have to, basically, admit that all of these IOUs that are floating around out there, can't be paid. They don't really exist; the money doesn't exist to pay them, so you shut them down, ......"
By Michael Siconolfi, Anita Raghavan, Mitchell Pacelle and Michael R Sesit.
".....the world is blaming Russia for the chaos sweeping through financial markets over the past month. Russia's abrupt decision in mid-August to let the ruble's value fall and default on part of its debt is widely viewed as the reason for widespread selling in everything from Brazilian bonds to U.S. stocks...."
".....The result is that in the past five weeks, international investors have lost an estimated $95 billion on the stocks and bonds of so-called emerging markets, according to J.P. Morgan & Co. Throughout, huge amounts of debt, built up over years to finance securities purchases, have been unwound. Some victims have disclosed staggering losses...."
".....Much of the damage has been concentrated at securities firms and banks, and especially hedge funds -- investment pools for rich investors that often use arcane trading strategies and borrowed money in a quest for outsize returns. ...."
".....Beyond that are fears that other nations will follow Russia's lead. Already, Malaysia has applied rigid controls that limit foreign investors' ability to get their money out. Stock markets around the world remain volatile as investors worry about a crisis of confidence erupting in another developing nation....."
".....At Long-Term Capital's plush headquarters in Greenwich, Conn., traders watched in horror as one after another of the firm's bets exploded. ..."
".....Even when firms have disclosed their global market losses, these amounts often are severely understated....."
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Page created 4 October 1998. Last updated Sunday 18 October 1998, 6:47 PM.
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