MY LIFE . . . . as of ...23rd march. righto. |
Chance
-by Kree, unadulterated by Sÿn. I'm sure everyone here has got an experience of taking tests consisting of multiple choice questions. And getting questions the topic of which you haven't the faintest idea of what the examiner is talking about. So you decide to take a risk, a chance, and by some incredible stroke of fate you actually get it right. (gee….. ok I can hear all these NUS medical students complaining away) Well, guess what? You've already struck a lottery ten, a million, or perhaps more valuable than the Singapore Sweep just by the fact that you are sitting in front of a computer screen reading a bunch of junk you already know. No, what I mean by the lottery is not that you are fortunate enough to know me, but that you are alive, and well, normal by any sense of the word. Ok, so you snigger and say, "Right-o! here we've got another of them types who think they're bloody inspirational." No way, I'm not so optimistic (mostly because my guesses at MCQs tend to set me back by quite a hefty margin). In fact, all I want to do is to do some number crunching and perhaps we shall see where we end up? Let's start recent. So, you are born and technically that means your father's sperm uniting with your mother's ova right? And in a typical ejaculation (Let's say the father gets it right on the first time…) he will ejaculate anywhere from 40-120 million spermatozoa. In fact, anywhere below 20 million and you won't be scolded by your parents for hogging the computer simply because you won't even exist in the first place! And mothers are born with a fixed number of eggs since birth so that's about an average of 300,000 to 400,000 follicles of which only 400 are lucky enough to expel their own ova (and give the females excuses to throw tantrums an equivalent of 400 times) throughout the mother's reproductive life. So let us try to keep things simple and assume that to become the individual that you are today you have to be the result of the fusion of one very, very hardworking sperm out of 30 million and one ova from a possible 400. So, that gives us a chance of 1 in 1.21010 for you as an individual to be what you are today. And that figure was just for one generation (i.e.
just the possibilities of you becoming what you are by starting off with
your parents genetic material). If we just move back in time just a teeny
bit to include your grandparents we would have to calculate for three generations.
For you, dear winner of life's great lottery stake, you have been picked
out of a possible (1.21010)(4+2)
Let us switch to another perspective
and see how many people it has taken for you to be in existence. Let's
assume once again that there's a gap of 25 years separating each generation.
Moving back a mere 200 years would give us 8 generations worth of human
beings to contend with. So, over the span of 200 years, 28+27+ 26+ 25+
24+ 23+ 22+ 21=510 people were subconsciously conspiring to create you.
Now that is quite some conspiracy you have to admit. And that's not all.
That means that 200 years ago 28 people had to survive so that you would
be here today. We all know that in the timeline spanning 1300 to 1600 (or
about 400 years ago) there was something called the Black death that swept
across the world starting from China.
Wow. Some chance you had in the world's greatest lottery. And what are the chances of life starting spontaneously anyway? Someone had said that the chances of that happening was about the same as having a monkey type gibberish away on a typewriter and coming up with, by some freak random chance, a Shakespearean play. Check this out. So what's my point? Well, with such amazing luck we are having, we wouldn't really need divine intervention, .......or would we? |