or       - that is the question

The Y2K power question

The question of Y2K impact on our power supply is an important one.    Many of the Y2K predictions are based on the expectation that there will be an extended power outage.    I found myself not knowing how to prepare for 2000 without knowing whether or not we will have power.    Since the answer to that question is so critical, I have decided to specialize in only that question.

Because of the overwhelming avalanche of information and the size of the Year 2000 problem, it is not possible to bite off the whole pie.

Will the electric utility supply be seriously affected by Y2K?    My conclusion is: NO.   I have found no credible case for an extended power outage caused by Y2K problems.

What you can do

Don't change your power consumption during the millennium rollover! Many of us common citizens feel a little frustrated about not being able to do anything to solve the problem. Well, here is one thing you can do to help out your utility company. Use the same amount of power that you normally would use during New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Typically, that will be about 40-50% of our national generating capacity. But if loads dip much lower than normal, (because people are concerned about brownouts and shortages) it makes the power generation and distribution system more difficult to manage.

My Y2K and Electric Power Paper

I joined the Y2K task force formed by Dr. D. James Kennedy.    I have prepared a paper for that task force on the power topic called Y2K Preparation, Power, Prudence, and Paranoia.    A text-only version is also available.

NEW   Appendix A has been written. It is an update, with the latest information on the Y2K power question. Check it out - the most vulnerable power plant in South Florida has already rolled over into the year 2000 - at full power - with no outage! There is also a text only version.

My paper is updated regularly at this web site.    Look for the next update towards August.    The next NERC report is due out sometime in July, so I'll be reading and digesting that as soon as possible.

If you read my paper and have an opposing response, you are not alone.    I have collected several opposing responses and tried to answer the issues and questions that they raised.    Read them before you write me or flame me - that might save you some time.

Opposing responses to my paper

1. Open letter from Donald Crowe.

2. Email letter from Alan Fountain.

3. Y2K power report from Ed Yardeni.