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RACING RESOURCES
410-356-5548 SNOW LINE |
WEATHER OUTLOOK 2008 - 2009 brought to you by the folks at ZARDOZ NOTwax, & SUPER Z SNOW SLOW AND STICKY ?? YOU NEED THE ZARDOZ EFFECT --------------------------------------- South Central PA area Liberty, Roundtop, Whitetail How About A Cold December !!
Get those snow cannons fired up! My usual forecast, taking in account everything and everybody.
Look for a colder than normal December 2008. Should spell good news for resorts to open the first few weeks of December. January 2009 in the beginning...Ugh again, I traced back through my journals and yes almost every year we get this "January Non Cooperating time" . Not to say you can't play. Just no new trail count. Then from there on out smooth sailing Mid January through March 2009. Expect winter to be colder than normal. Snowfall for the mountains Central Pa 25 to 30 inches for the season.
We had 16 inches of snow in York Pa last winter during a slight drought.
The Sun Spot Activity is zero. A few cluster showed up but disappeared within a few days. There have been 4 clusters last month. The Sun will slowly move from solar minimum.
Stay tuned more to follow.
NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation - Negative AO - Artic Oscillation - negative EL Nino / LA Nina - Current predictions call for a neutral state through the winter of 2009. Sun Spot Activity - solar minimum.
Reference Normal temps >> Nov 55H 36L Dec 45H 28L Jan 40H 23L
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SNOWMAKING - All you want to know
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I get this question all the time: Is it going to be a good winter. ????
What is a definition of good. All trails open, Good Base, lots of real snow. It all depends on what you like.What the data shows based on percentage and my rating scale :
The rating scale is based on SQ snow quality/grooming, BD base depth, and percent of trails open.
A rated 50% + Rest B rated - Chances 50%
B rated 50 % + C+ rated - Chances 25%
C+ rated or less - Chances 25% or less p;
Top 20 Snowstorms in Baltimore: (1891-2000)
WITH ENSO INDEX
Source: NOAA - NWS Sterling, VA - Maryland winters
| Rank | ENSO Index (el nino) | Snowfall Date | Rank | ENSO Index (el nino) | Snowfall Date |
| 1 | nd | 26.5 inches ... Jan. 27-29, 1922 | 11 | -0.3 | 13.0 inches ... Mar. 5-7, 1962 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 22.8 inches ... Feb. 11, 1983 | 12 | 1.3 | 12.3 inches ... Jan. 22, 1987 |
| 3 | -.08 | 22.5 inches ... Jan. 7-8, 1996 | 13 | 1.2 | 12.1 inches ... Jan. 30-31, 1966 |
| 4 | nd | 22.0 inches ... Mar. 29-30, 1942 | 14 | nd | 12.0 inches ... Feb. 16-18, 1900 |
| 5 | nd | 21.4 inches ... Feb. 11-14, 1899 | 15 | .6 | 11.9 inches ... Mar. 13-14, 1993 |
| 6 | 0.0 | 20.0 inches ... Feb. 18-19, 1979 | 16 | nd | 11.7 inches ... Feb. 5-8, 1899 |
| 7 | nd | 16.0 inches ... Mar. 15-18, 1892 | 17 | nd | 11.5 inches ... Dec. 17-18, 1932 |
| 8 | 1.5 | 15.5 inches ... Feb. 15, 1958 | 18 | -0.1 | 11.5 inches ... Mar. 21-22, 1964 |
| 9 | -1.5 | 14.9 inches ... Jan. 25, 2000 | 19 | nd | 10.9 inches ... December 4-7, 1910 |
| 10 | .03 | 14.1 inches ... Dec. 11-12, 1960 | 20 | -0.2 | 10.7 inches ... Feb. 3-4, 1961 |
20 Data Point Years
12 Data Points with ENSO data
5 Neutral
5 El Nino
2 La Nina
Red - El Nino, Blue -La nina, Black - Neutral, nd - no data
As you can see for yourself , a large snowfall can occur during all phases of ENSO, Some with a higher percentage.
| ENSO IDX | Year | In Snow | |
| neutral | 0.3 | 1993 | 39.1 |
| neutral | 0.2 | 1994 | 46.8 |
| Weak La | -0.8 | 1996 | 54.5 |
| Strong EL | 1.1 | 2003 | 59 |
Now we really need to care about Temperature and Humidity throughout the winter season.
Table - Broken out by ENSO index
| DJF El Nino Index | YEAR | INCH OF SNOW | Temp DEC High Avg | Dec Low Avg | Dec temp Index | Temp Jan High avg | Jan low avg | Jan Temp Index |
| -1.6 | 1999 | 18.5 | 45.7 | 29 | 37.35 | 38.8 | 22.5 | 30.65 |
| -1.6 | 2000 | 26.5 | 33.4 | 19.5 | 26.45 | 38.5 | 21.8 | 30.15 |
| -0.8 | 1996 | 54.5 | 44.1 | 30.4 | 37.25 | 37.03 | 18.6 | 27.82 |
| -0.7 | 2001 | 17.4 | 47.9 | 31.6 | 39.75 | 37.03 | 22.6 | 29.82 |
| -0.4 | 1997 | 13.5 | 43.5 | 28.5 | 36 | 37 | 22.5 | 29.75 |
| -0.1 | 2002 | 7 | 37.9 | 28.1 | 33 | 41.9 | 26.5 | 34.2 |
| 0.1 | 1990 | 15.5 | 47.32 | 29.5 | 38.41 | 40.03 | 23.4 | 31.72 |
| 0.2 | 1994 | 46.8 | 46.77 | 30.2 | 38.49 | 41.52 | 28.1 | 34.81 |
| 0.3 | 1993 | 39.1 | 41.6 | 26.7 | 34.15 | 29.03 | 11.6 | 20.32 |
| 0.4 | 2004 | 30 | 43.1 | 27.5 | 35.3 | 30.3 | 17.5 | 23.9 |
| 0.5 | 1991 | 7.5 | 44.35 | 28.6 | 36.48 | 41 | 24.9 | 32.95 |
| 0.6 | 2005 | 22 | 36.9 | 23.6 | 30.25 | 37.6 | 24.5 | 31.05 |
| 1.1 | 2003 | 59 | 41.3 | 27.1 | 34.2 | 31.6 | 19.7 | 25.65 |
| 1.2 | 1995 | 24.5 | 35.84 | 23.3 | 29.57 | 34.16 | 18.2 | 26.18 |
| 1.8 | 1992 | 12 | 42 | 28.5 | 35.25 | 41.84 | 27.7 | 34.77 |
| 2.4 | 1998 | 2.3 | 49.93 | 31.4 | 40.67 | 45.4 | 31 | 38.2 |