AD EXPENDITURES

Update June 1998
Last week, Simba reported that Web advertising totaled $100 million in April, up 30 percent from $77 million in March. For the first quarter the total was $219 million, resulting in a year-to-date total of $319 million. At this rate, the industry is on track to break the $1 billion mark in 1998.

The IAB will release its first-quarter numbers next month in San Francisco. Ziff-Davis research guru, Chris Stetson, reminds readers that the large difference between Simba and IAB projections is due to the fact that the IAB includes sponsorships, interstitials and microsites. Simba's estimate refers just to banners.

TOP 10 AD BANNERS

With all that money being spent on Internet advertising you would think that a list of top 10 ad banners would be very revealing. Well you would be wrong, Mr./Ms. Branding Expert!

The top banners tracked by NetRatings [filtered from those ubiquitous Yahoo! promo banners, which greatly distort the list], shows virtually no major players in the top 10:

With Yahoo! Without Yahoo!
Rnk Banner Rnk Banner
1. Yahoo! In Chinese 1. Bid.com
2. Yahoo! Seinfeld 2. Surplus Direct #1
3. Bid.com 3. Surplus Direct #2
4. Surplus Direct #1 4. Catalog Link
5. Surplus Direct #2 5. Feed.com
6. Yahoo! Home Page 6. Seinfeld.com
7. Yahoo! Parent Time 7. HotMail
8. Catalog Link 8. Music Boulevard
9. Yahoo! Online #1 9. Real Player
10. Yahoo! Online #2 10. Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas
Source: May 1998 NetRatings Inc.
With the sole exception of a movie about two drug-crazed Las Vegas visitors, the top 10 features only Net players. Las Vegas is an apt Internet metaphor: Lots of riches all around, millions of ways to squander money, and so few ways to win any back.


BURST! Releases Internet Cash Advertising Report to Web Publishers

BURST! conducted a proprietary analysis of advertising spending on the Internet: focused exclusively on cash spending by advertisers - a measure of Internet advertising most meaningful to the independent Web publisher.

By this measure, the total cash spent on Internet advertising in 1997 was calculated to be $336 million.

The BURST! Internet Cash Advertising Report was compiled by combining publicly available information with information obtained through interviews with privately owned companies. When information was unavailable, estimates were made with no attempt to totally eliminate intra-industry ad spending and check swaps which inflates actual out-of-pocket expenditures.

Summary of Findings:
Total $119.7
Table 1: (millions)
Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
1996 $16.6 $23.3 $32.5 $47.3
1997 $53.6 $64.3 $89.7 $128.4 $336.0

Fourth Quarter 1997
-- For the fourth quarter of 1997, BURST! calculates cash spending on the Internet at $128.4mm, up 172% from fourth quarter last year.
-- Search Engines account for 53% of totals add spending in the quarter, down from 56% for the same period last year.
-- The top 20 Web sites (as determined by advertising revenue) received 94% of all ad dollars, as compared to 97% during the fourth quarter of 1996.

Full Year 1997
-- For the full year, BURST! calculates cash spending on the Internet at $336mm, up 181% from 1996.
-- Search Engines account for 54% of total ad spending, up from 49% for last year.
-- The top 20 Web sites received 95% of all ad spending, as compared to 97% during 1996.

"It's not a billion dollars, but it is still very good news. It is almost unbelievable." says Coffin, "Remember it took cable 6 years after they started to attract advertisers, before they did $337 million in ad sales (the year was 1983). On the Internet, we passed that hurdle in just our 3rd year. That makes the Internet the fastest growing media industry in history."

Over 1/2 of the cash dollars spent on Internet advertising in 1997 went to Search Engines, and almost all the cash spending was limited to a small group of sites. Yet the CEO of BURST! is not concerned,

"We believe as advertising budgets become more meaningful, they will undergo more scrutiny. At that point, people will become less enthusiastic about advertising on search engines and more excited about advertising on the Internet."

Even with a modest allowance for inflated cash ad spending, BURST!'s Internet Cash Advertising Report indicates that real spending by advertisers on the Internet is less than one-half of one percent of the total ad spending across all measured media ($185 Billion). For BURST!, this realization is tantamount to managing the expectations of their customer - the Web publisher. Estimating that cash ad spending won't reach $1 Billion on the Internet until the year 2000, BURST! uses the Internet Cash Advertising Report to inform its Web publishers so that they can control the cost side of their business, and seek creative sources of revenue besides advertising.







Internet Cash Advertising Forecasts
1998, $560mm (+75%)
1999, $839mm (+50%)
2000, $1,259mm (+50%)
2001, $1,637mm (+30%)
2002, $2,128mm (+30%)
While total ad spending is less than many people perceive it to be, the numbers are still meaningful. At expected rates of increase, long term forecasts show Internet cash ad spending reaching $1.2 Billion by the year 2000, and more than $2 Billion by 2002. With such predicted growth, it is likely that resources will be available to evaluate and purchase a broader set of online advertising opportunities.

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