DISKUSI KRISIS EKONOMI
Selamat berjumpa kembali di situs DisKrisek, Edisi Maret
1999.
Situs ini mencoba mengikuti analisa
memahami gelembung ekonomi, alias pertumbuhan ekonomi balon yang tidak tahan
terhadap pergeseran keseimbangan, dan berisi ratusan analisa penyebab dan
asal-muasal malapetaka bagi rakyat Asia. Banyak pendapat yang saling
bertentangan, termasuk (sebagian) dari IMF yang tidak pernah merasa
bersalah, bahkan dengan arogan merasa bangga bisa 'mengacau' dibanyak
negara.
Michel Camdessus: "........leading in the case of Indonesia to widespread
student unrest...... The IMF's programs tackled these problems head-on, and
although we have been widely criticized, I am far from feeling apologetic;
on the contrary, we in the Fund are proud of having decried such
abuses........" Beruntung tidak semua orang IMF sama dengan Michel
Camdessus.
Simaklah sekian banyak analisa, gagasan atau teori-teori, dan bandingkan
dengan dampak apa yang anda alami dalam perekonomian sekarang.
Dan selalu perlu berhati-hati. Dari sepuluh nasihat yang diberikan, bisa
ada lima yang mengandung jebakan-jebakan yang mengancam menjadi kekacauan.
Si pemberi nasihat mudah sekali mengelak dari pertanggung-jawaban, dan
terpulang kepada kita untuk memilah-milah serta memperhitungkan untung rugi
mengikuti saran orang lain.
Ratusan artikel tentang krisis ekonomi, globalisasi, IMF, spekulator
valas, hedge funds, Soros, kebijakan moneter, dll., dapat di akses melalui :
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Yang lalu :
Edisi
Oktober 1998
Edisi
Desember 1998
EDISI MARET 1999
APA YANG
TERJADI DENGAN GLOBALISASI?
Apa manfaat 'ekonomi global'? Apa bahaya 'ekonomi global'?
Bagaimana 'globalisasi' tidak disangka-sangka membawa krisis ekonomi.
A
Global Economy -- or Not? [Intellectual Capital, February 18, 1999]
by
Robert J. Samuelson
.....Fickle global financial markets collided with entrenched
national practices (poor bank lending, corruption, “crony capitalism”) to
produce highly unstable flows of capital into and out of developing
countries. And the crisis has endured because it defies the power of any
single country to resolve. There is no political, intellectual or
institutional framework to impose a genuinely global solution. What does a
“truly global economy” mean?.....
Berikut ini satu seri artikel New York Times terbitan Februari lalu terdiri
dari empat bagian, berkisah tentang demam 'globalisasi' yang melanda ekonomi
dunia dan sekaligus menghantarkan krisis di Asia, Rusia, dan Amerika Latin.
.....Bagian
pertama berisi ilustrasi uang milik seorang karyawati di Amerika
bersangkut-paut dengan keluarga Salamet, tukang becak dari pinggiran desa
Mojokerto...... Bagian
kedua menceritakan liberalisasi yang diunggulkan dan begitu mudahnya
'emerging markets' menangguk dollar. .....Akibatnya investasi dari gelembung
uang dollar merebak jadi masalah mengancam seluruh dunia, di Bagian
ketiga. ......Dan lantas mana dia obatnya yang paling mujarab (Bagian
keempat) ?
1. Who
Sank, or Swam, in Choppy Currents of a World Cash Ocean [New York Times
February 15, 1999]
By Nicholas D. Kristof with Edward Wyatt
2. How
U.S. Wooed Asia to Let Cash Flow In [New York Times February 16,
1999]
By Nicholas D. Kristof with David E. Sanger
3. World's
Markets, None of Them an Island [New York Times February 17, 1999]
By
Nicholas D. Kristof with Sheryl WuDunn
4. The
World's Ills May Be Obvious, but Their Cure Is Not [New York Times
February 18, 1999]
By Nicholas D. Kristof with Sheryl WuDunn
.....The message from Washington during these upheavals
strikes some foreigners as hypocritical. When Thailand and Brazil were hit,
the Clinton administration's message was firm: Raise interest rates, cut
government spending, put up with a recession if necessary, allow banks to
fail, be stoical.
Yet in September when the crisis seemed as if it might
strike the United States, the administration had a change of heart.
President Clinton went into overdrive in September, welcoming three interest
rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pressing Europe and others to cut rates as
well, and finally getting money out of Congress for the International
Monetary Fund. The Federal Reserve even coordinated the rescue of Long-Term
Capital Management, a hedge fund backed by wealthy investors.
The rate
cuts were precisely the opposite of the prescription that the United States
had handed out to everyone else. And these days, there is a lurking fear in
Washington that these countermeasures may have worked too well -- creating a
false sense of security. ......
Currency
crises and the rewriting of history [FORBES Magazine March 22, 1999]
By
Steve H. Hanke
Sudut pandang Steve Hanke dalam Forbes tetap menggelitik
mengenai kebijakan mata uang yang mampu bertahan terhadap globalisasi. Trio
Greenspan, Rubin dan Summers mempunyai kepentingan sendiri, dan tidak perlu
semua mengikuti apa katanya.
The
Three Marketeers [TIME Magazine Feb 15, 1999]
By Joshua Cooper
Ramo
Economist heroes? It sounds silly unless you understand how close we
came to economic meltdown last year.
Ketiganya adalah pahlawan menurut
nominasi majalah Time.
Living
Dangerously [TIME Magazine Feb 22, 1999]
By Claude Smadja,
Geneva
We need new international mechanisms to harness globalization's
potential to generate prosperity.
Fix
the Global Financial System [TIME Magazine, February 1, 1999]
By LEE
KUAN YEW
Floating exchange rates no longer serve today's rapidly changing
economy
The
Dark Side of Globalisation Part I & II [THE HINDU Online, February 12,
1999]
By Prem Shankar Jha
Apa yang terjadi setelah sisi globalisasi yang
gelap menyelimuti perekonomian di Thailand, Indonesia dan Malaysia?
ECONOMIC
ISSUES: The real face of financial liberalisation [India's National
Magazine, From the publishers of THE HINDU Feb. 13 - 26, 1999]
By Prabhat
Patnaik
An economy open to global financial flows tends to get caught in
the mire of stagnation and lower social expenditures, both of which impinge
adversely on the poor. This is what has happened in India.
Financial
Globalization: New Challenges for Peoples' Movements
By Kavaljit Singh
The
Global Crisis Deepens: Now What? [The Nations October 19, 1998]
By
WILLIAM GREIDER
.....There will be no return to normal, not in the terms that
financiers and economists envision. The global system will either be
reformed in fundamental ways or we will watch passively as the destabilizing
dynamics of unregulated markets continue to deliver random destruction
around the world, compounding the loss and misery for innocent bystanders.
As the political turmoil accumulates, so will the conflict among trading
nations. For better or worse, the global system is going to be profoundly
altered by these events (if not utterly smashed).....
......The
priorities for reform are all bound to be extremely difficult, but the first
test is whether US elites really do believe in a progressive global system
or merely in their own opportunism. One stunning revelation in this crisis
is how quickly US leaders in politics, finance and multinational
corporations abandoned their own longstanding sermons on the inevitability
of globalization, pretending instead that this crisis does not involve us.
They seem to have gotten over that illusion.
......But the hubris with
which US business and banking leaders prescribe hard reforms for others and
bargain-basement scavenging for themselves is sowing deep suspicions of US
purposes elsewhere in the world. If the United States expects to lead, it
must first restate, convincingly, its own commitment to fashioning a global
system that is not based on neocolonial capitalism but truly is intended to
be in everyone's long-term interest.
The fundamental problems a new
Bretton Woods agreement must tackle involve finance, commerce and social
relations--a much broader global understanding than the one fashioned from
the rubble of World War II......
A
Rising Tide Sinks All Boats [New York Times January 19, 1997]
by
Matthew Miller
ONE WORLD, READY OR NOT: The Manic Logic of Global
Capitalism. By WILLIAM GREIDER.
Curious
George Talks the Market [The Nation February 1, 1999]
by WILLIAM
GREIDER
THE CRISIS OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM: Open Society Endangered. By
George Soros.
An
Excerpt from THE CRISIS OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM [Newsweek International,
February 1, 1999]
In an excerpt from his new book, the billionaire
financier assesses the current state of the world economy, describes how close
we came to a collapse and offers some ways to prevent a real meltdown.
Not
for the First Time, World Sours on Free Markets [The Nations October 19,
1998]
By John Gray
....... A year or so from now, it will be difficult to find a
single person who admits ever having believed that a global free market is a
sensible way of running the world economy........
The short history of
the free market in nineteenth-century England illustrates a vital truth:
Democracy and the free market are rivals, not allies. "Democratic
capitalism"--the vacuous rallying cry of neoconservatives
everywhere--signifies (or conceals) a deeply problematic relationship. The
normal concomitant of free markets is not stable democratic government but
the volatile--and not always democratic--politics of economic insecurity.
History exemplifies an equally important fact: Free-market economies
lack built-in stabilizers. Without effective management by government, they
are liable to recurrent booms and busts--with all their costs in social
cohesion and political stability........
Financial
Warfare
By Michel Chossudovsky
Professor of Economics, University
of Ottawa, author of "The Globalisation of Poverty, Impacts of IMF and World
Bank Reforms"
Subtopik dalam Artikel ini: .....Evolution of the Global
Financial Crisis, ......"Financial Warfare", .....The Demise of Central
Banking, ......Creditors and Speculators, ......Who Funds the IMF Bailouts?,
.....Strong Economic Medicine, ......Deregulating Capital Movements,
......Creating a Global Financial Watchdog......
......The crisis is not limited to Southeast Asia or the former
Soviet Union. The collapse in the standard of living is taking place
abruptly and simultaneously in a large number of countries. This Worldwide
crisis of the late twentieth century is more devastating than the Great
Depression of the 1930s. It has far-reaching geo-political implications;
economic dislocation has also been accompanied by the outbreak of regional
conflicts, the fracturing of national societies and in some cases the
destruction of entire countries. This is by far the most serious economic
crisis in modern history........
Crash
Course: Just What's Driving the Crisis in Emerging Markets? [New York
Times January 29, 1999] By Louis Uchitelle
Markets
Are Freer Than Politicians [New York Times February 21, 1999] By David E.
Sanger
Global
Markets' Lethal Magic [New York Times February 21, 1999]
Time
for action on crisis economies [AFR February 22, 1999]
Japan
pushes for Asian version of IMF [AFR February 12, 1999] By Andrew Cornell,
Tokyo
Asian
Crisis: World Must Cooperate to Find Solutions [The Strait Times March 4,
1999] A Commentary By Jack Boorman
Reforming
the International Monetary System [Monaco, March 6, 1999] Address by Mr.
Alassane D. Ouattara
New
Approach to Development Strategy Statement at the World Bank Symposium on
Global Finance and Development by KIICHI MIYAZAWA, the Minister of Finance,
Japan [March 1, 1999]
The
strengths of maverick Mr Yen [AFR March 17, 1999] By Tony Boyd
Japan's
Sakakibara hits out at IMF, US dominance [Sat Jan 23 1999]
"The
End of Market Fundamentalism" [Asiaweek February 5, 1999] By Sakakibara
Eisuke
BERHASILKAH
BRAZIL MENYIASATI JURUS YANG AMPUH?
Real Brazil dibiarkan mengambang sejak Januari lalu.
Seberapa jauh devaluasi yang terjadi? Jurus apa yang digunakan Pemerintah
Brazil bersama IMF dan Amerika?
What
Is Globalisation Anyway? THE BRAZILIAN FINANCIAL SCAM [October 1998]
by
Michel Chossudovsky, Professor of Economics, University of Ottawa, author of
THE GLOBALISATION OF POVERTY, Impacts of IMF and World Bank Reforms; Third
World Network, Penang and Zed Books, London, 1997.
BRAZIL'S
IMF SPONSORED ECONOMIC DISASTER [January 1999]
by Michel
Chossudovsky
The Speculative Onslaught: From East Asia and Russia to Latin
America
Subtopik dalam Artikel ini: .....Shuttle Diplomacy,
.....Squeezing Credit, .....Endorsement by Washington Consensus,
.....Increase in the Price of Bread, .....Getting the Green Light from Wall
Street, ......Background of the IMF Agreement, .....Preventive Economic
Medicine, ......"Up Front Fiscal Adjustment", .......The IMF Agreement
Contributes to Fuelling Capital Flight, .....Enticing Speculators,
.......Declining Central Bank Reserves, .....Hidden Agenda, .....Collapse of
the Real, ......"A Marshall Plan for Creditors and Speculators",
......Towards an Inflationary Spiral, ......"Programmed Bankruptcy",
......Implications for Latin America, ......Disarming the Neoliberal
Agenda.....
Brazil:
a test of IMF's new tactics, Another Failure? [The Globe and Mail February
1, 1999]
By Heather Scoffield
Although the multibillion-dollar bailout
was supposed to be pre-emptive, some say it has only benefited speculators,
and has failed to stabilize the economy or help Brazilians.
JEFFREY
SACHS: Self-inflicted wounds [Financial Times 21st January, 1999]
It
is dangerous to fall in love with exchange rate pegs, as Brazil discovered to
its cost. Countries should discard them as soon as they have stabilised
internal prices.
Why
Brazil Did What It Did and What Options Are Left [New York Times January
16, 1999]
By Sylvia Nasar
ECONOMY-MERCOSUR:
Soros is Region's New Strong Man [InterPress Service, 09-Feb-99]
By
Daniel Gatti
The
Story's Not Over [Newsweek International, February 1, 1999]
George
Soros argues for an international central bank and tougher treatment for
imprudent lenders -- and says what it's like to be called an evil speculator.
Regional
Implications of Globalization: A Latin American Perspective [Paris, March
15, 1999]
Address of Michel Camdessus
Latin
America in a Globalized Economy: The Chilean Response [Paris, March 14,
1999]
Remarks by Michel Camdessus
SISTIM BANK
SENTRAL AMERIKA DAN EROPA
Indonesia sedang mempersiapkan Rancangan Undang-Undang Bank
Sentral (BI). Sebagai acuan kita lihat bagaimana pola Bank Sentral di negara
lain. Ikuti artikel mengenai Federal Reserve di Amerika, dan Bank Sentral
Eropa yang baru dibentuk sebagai pengelola Euro.
U.S.
Monetary Policy: An Introduction [FRBSF Economic Letter January 1,
1999]
How Is the Federal Reserve Structured? What Are the Goals of
U.S. Monetary Policy? What Are the Tools of Monetary Policy? How Does
Monetary Policy Affect the Economy? How Does the Fed Formulate Its
Strategies?
The
European System of Central Banks
By Mark A. Wynne
On January 1, 1999, the European System of Central Banks (ESCB)
began conducting monetary policy for eleven of the fifteen nations of the
European Union, formally creating an economic and monetary union. The ESCB
is governed by the decision-making bodies of the European Central Bank (ECB)
and manages Europe's new currency, the euro.
Sejumlah links yang membahas krisis ekonomi Asia dan
berbagai topik ekonomi yang relevan
dapat diikuti dibawah ini:
World Bank
US Federal Reserve Board
Bank Sentral berbagai
negara
Asia
Crisis Homepage - Nouriel Roubini
CURRENCY BOARDS Kurt Schuler
Homepage
PAUL
KRUGMAN Homepage
Penerbitan IMF :
IMF Papers on Policy
Analysis and Assessment in Full Text
IMF Publications
Memorandum Indonesia - IMF :
Letter of
Intent and Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies,
March 16, 1999
Letter of
Intent and Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies,
November 13, 1998
Letter of
Intent and Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies,
October 19, 1998
Letter of
Intent and Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies,
September 11, 1998
Letter of
Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, July 29,
1998
Second
Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, June 24,
1998
Supplementary
Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, April 10, 1998
Aneka Artikel :
EURO:
Dampaknya bagi Asia (990107)
Aliran
Modal dan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar (Rev.990109)
Kumpulan
Pidato: Gagasan Otorita Moneter Internasional (Rev.981224)
Ilmu
Ekonomi untuk Orang Awam (Rev.990109)
Kearah
Regulasi Kapital Global (Rev.981018)
Hedge
Fund LTCM Hampir Runtuh (Rev.981004)
Jurus
Malaysia: Kebijakan Pengendalian Devisa (Rev.981004)
Jurus
Hong Kong: Intervensi di Pasar Bebas (Rev.981026)
Riwayat
Bantuan IMF (Rev.980910)
Kumpulan berbagai komentar, kritik dan saran-saran mengenai
program kebijakan dan bantuan IMF kepada negara berkembang: tulisan Jeffrey
Sachs, George Schultz, Joseph Stiglitz, artikel WSJ, FT, Washington Post,
NYT, dll.
Tiga Makalah oleh Robert Wade mengemukakan analisa yang kritis
terhadap "Wall Street - Treasury - IMF Complex" serta merangkum pandangan
para pakar lainnya.
Tabel Kurs Harian beberapa mata uang Asia, dll, terhadap USD:
mulai
tanggal 2 Juli 1997 s/d 31 Desember 1998.
mulai
tanggal 1 September 1998 s/d 12 Maret 1999.
Edisi yang lalu
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1998
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Last updated Mar-1999 Edition on Sunday 28 March 1999, 12:17 PM. Revisited 
since 4 June 2000.